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JackofHearts
JackofHearts
Joined: Sep 10, 2019
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September 10th, 2019 at 11:34:47 AM permalink
In Video Poker, the typical “Jacks or Better” payout is 1:1.

But, if your account has $100, and you bet $10,
and you win with a pair of Jacks, you get back your $10, bringing
your account back to $100, which is essentially a “push.”

The typical “two-pair” payout is 2:1.
If you win with two pairs,
the bank takes your $10 and
gives you back $20,
which is essentially a 1:1 payout.

In Baccarat, or Blackjack, or Roulette,
if you win the 1:1 bet,
you receive back your initial bet,
and the bank pays you the equivalent bet,
a true 1:1 payout.

Is a Video Poker Pay Table like this:
Royal Flush: 800
Straight Flush: 50
Four-of-a-Kind: 40
Full House: 8
Flush: 5
Straight: 4
Three-of-a-kind: 3
Two Pairs: 2
Jacks or Better: 1
Everything Else: 0
...
Actually this:
Royal Flush: 799:1
Straight Flush: 49:1
Four-of-a-Kind: 39:1
Full House: 7:1
Flush: 4:1
Straight: 3:1
Three-of-a-kind: 2:1
Two Pairs: 1:1
Jacks or Better: Push
Everything Else: -1

?

And if the probability of each result is

Royal Flush: 0.000025
Straight Flush: 0.0001
Four-of-a-Kind: 0.002
Full House: 0.011
Flush: 0.011
Straight: 0.011
Three-of-a-kind: 0.074
Two Pairs: 0.129
Jacks or Better: 0.213
Everything Else: 0.548

55% of the time, the player loses 100%
21% of the time, the player pushes
13% of the time, the player wins 100%
Etc …

How can Video Poker games have a 99% Return to Player?

Do you think Video Poker Paytables are misleading?
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
ForagerJackofHearts
September 10th, 2019 at 11:58:52 AM permalink
No.

Video poker and slots pay on what is known as a, “For one,” basis, which simply means that the original bet is presumed lost. Table games generally pay on a, “To one,” basis, which means that it returns what’s on the left side as well as your original bet. Sports betting and racing type bets also generally operate on a, “To one,” basis.

As far as the Return to Player (RTP) for one v. to one isn’t relevant in and of itself. If a Royal paid 849:1 or 850-FOR-1 as opposed to 800/799 (respectively) would the payable not be improved? When a VP payback percentage is advertised at 99%, the fact that the pays are FOR ONE has already been accounted for.
Vultures can't be choosers.
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146Forager
September 10th, 2019 at 12:10:33 PM permalink
No. Ditto what Mission says.

But, it gets goofy when live table games are put into slots. For instance, video blackjack pays 2 for a blackjack. Sounds great until you realize it's the same as even money on a live table.
I heart Crystal Math.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
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September 10th, 2019 at 12:14:52 PM permalink
Quote: JackofHearts

Do you think Video Poker Paytables are misleading?

I believe properly regulated video poker games are fair and random. I do not subscribe to the premise that they are rigged in any way. However, I have always been suspect of video poker odds calculations. In my opinion, there are far too many variables in live human play to make exact predictions. With so much of the return coming from a small number of rare hands, these calculations must cover a wide range of possible results.

I do believe playing +EV video poker games will give you the best chance of making a profit. How long that will take or what will happen along the way is anyone's guess.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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September 10th, 2019 at 12:24:52 PM permalink
The odds calculations are based on always making the optimal play for the game OR whatever the manufacturer says it is and gaming verifies. It’s easy enough to independently determine that information for a straight up video poker game. It’s significantly more difficult when other elements only tangentially related to the actual video poker game are introduced.

Length of play, bankroll and for how long the game is played are all immaterial to the game’s overall return to player (house edge) of any given hand. Accuracy of the player matters for the return that player will see in the extreme long run, but has no bearing on the posted returns or odds associated therewith as those all rely upon the assumption that the player will play optimally.

And, they have to assume something, otherwise it would be impossible to advertise a payback percentage. Someone once figured out the return assuming the player always makes the worst possible decision on one of the games, I forget which one or what the result was. You can also calculate the return of a player treating it like five-card stud easily, which just means you always hold all five cards regardless of what they are.

But, the possibility of someone doing that has nothing to do with stated returns, nor should it.
Vultures can't be choosers.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
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Mission146
September 10th, 2019 at 12:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The odds calculations are based on always making the optimal play for the game OR whatever the manufacturer says it is and gaming verifies. It’s easy enough to independently determine that information for a straight up video poker game. It’s significantly more difficult when other elements only tangentially related to the actual video poker game are introduced.

Length of play, bankroll and for how long the game is played are all immaterial to the game’s overall return to player (house edge) of any given hand. Accuracy of the player matters for the return that player will see in the extreme long run, but has no bearing on the posted returns or odds associated therewith as those all rely upon the assumption that the player will play optimally.

And, they have to assume something, otherwise it would be impossible to advertise a payback percentage. Someone once figured out the return assuming the player always makes the worst possible decision on one of the games, I forget which one or what the result was. You can also calculate the return of a player treating it like five-card stud easily, which just means you always hold all five cards regardless of what they are.

But, the possibility of someone doing that has nothing to do with stated returns, nor should it.

Great explanation.
JackofHearts
JackofHearts
Joined: Sep 10, 2019
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Mission146
September 11th, 2019 at 5:04:53 PM permalink
Thanks for the clarification.

I am used to Baccarat and Blackjack, and did not get it.

I usually stay away from anything that is a shiny machine.

Now I get it.

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