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vonnegut
vonnegut
Joined: May 28, 2014
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Forager
January 10th, 2019 at 6:32:57 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Allowing AP play makes no sense on any level for casinos. I have no idea why they allow it. If I owned a casino, Id set every slot, table game and vp to pay 95-99%.

Id offer no free play and only give hotel and buffet comps.



I look at this from a poker player's perspective, and I strongly disagree enough to post.

A poker room manager can look at a professional poker player the same way a casino manager looks at an AP. Every dollar a pro poker player takes out of the cardroom is a dollar that would likely have been raked off if it had gone to a rec. If you owned a poker room, maybe you'd opt to increase the rake collection to a point where +EV play became impossible... say 10% of each pot, no cap. I've seen rakes this high in Caribbean casinos. This pretty much makes sure that every player who comes in will be a loser in the long run.

It also completely kills the games.

Cardroom managers should think of pro poker players as basically a marketing cost. They go around bragging about their wins to their friends and family, bringing more interest to the game. They fill seats, giving social proof to the random recs that pass by. Many of the pros who THINK they are beating the game, are actually longterm losers who will eventually rake off just like those random recs they look down on... or lose it in -EV pit games. It is much cheaper to create an ecosystem where a few 1/2nl grinders can beat the game than to pay prop players and shills to fill those 1/2 seats.

Casinos really should be thinking of APs in the same way. They are very good for the longterm health of the industry.

Incidentally, this is why I'm much more bullish on IGT stock than any other slot machine manufacturer. They actually seem to get this concept... that if you make a variable state machine capable of being vultured, you are never going to have an empty seat for long. And even if it's just some AP going through GE coins or UXP multipliers, it gives the illusion of action to the random rec who is there for a conference and trying to decide between the Buffalo Grand machine or the Sphinx 4d.

I haven't seen the numbers, but I'd bet that all things being equal, a slot machine that is vulnerable to advantage play overall will outperform one that isn't.
I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over. Out on the edge you see all kinds of things you can't see from the center.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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January 10th, 2019 at 6:36:06 PM permalink
I respect your opinion, but I dont think you can compare poker players to AP.
vonnegut
vonnegut
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January 10th, 2019 at 6:38:34 PM permalink
Well... I just did. So I guess you can.
I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over. Out on the edge you see all kinds of things you can't see from the center.
TomG
TomG
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January 10th, 2019 at 6:51:00 PM permalink
Quote: vonnegut

Well... I just did. So I guess you can.



But the comparison fails. When a winning poker player plays at a casino, it increases their revenue by adding to the rake. When a winning video poker player plays at a casino, it decreases their revenue by losing money to him.

-----

The higher level video poker players that I know are doing as well as ever (some even better than ever, giving up other plays to focus more time on VP). But they are definitely spreading their action around a lot more. Based on that, I would say not dead, just harder to find. At the lower levels, from my perspective, it's the same as it always has been in Las Vegas.
terapined
terapined
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January 10th, 2019 at 7:16:25 PM permalink
Quote: vonnegut

I look at this from a poker player's perspective, and I strongly disagree enough to post.

A poker room manager can look at a professional poker player the same way a casino manager looks at an AP..




I just don't buy this
I play at some crowded poker rooms
Tampa Hard Rock generally has 30 to 40 tables going
The Tampa Hard Rock could care less if some pros are in the room.
The cardroom is going to make good money regardless
but
They will watch their BJ tables closely
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 10th, 2019 at 8:50:44 PM permalink
Welcome back to the forum, vonnegut.

I highly recommend vonnegut's recent blog post. Might give folks some idea where he's coming from on this. I too think it's a flawed analogy in some ways, but I take his point.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
tringlomane
tringlomane
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January 10th, 2019 at 8:59:27 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

I just don't buy this
I play at some crowded poker rooms
Tampa Hard Rock generally has 30 to 40 tables going
The Tampa Hard Rock could care less if some pros are in the room.
The cardroom is going to make good money regardless
but
They will watch their BJ tables closely



Florida had restrictive poker rules until a few years ago. Give it another decade; they won't be that busy.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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January 10th, 2019 at 9:37:54 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Welcome back to the forum, vonnegut.

I highly recommend vonnegut's recent blog post. Might give folks some idea where he's coming from on this. I too think it's a flawed analogy in some ways, but I take his point.


Thanks for the heads up on the blog post, it was a good read!
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. Amarillo Slim Preston
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 10th, 2019 at 9:50:39 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

But the comparison fails. When a winning poker player plays at a casino, it increases their revenue by adding to the rake. When a winning video poker player plays at a casino, it decreases their revenue by losing money to him.



I agree 100%.

I've heard vonnegut's argument before. Some AP's think they are actually healthy for the gaming business by giving recreational players hope of winning. I think they say this to give themselves a sense of economic worth to society. However, most people don't care if other players win or lose and I suspect those few who do care prefer other players to lose, so that the casino remains financially healthy and more inclined to be generous to their customers and profitable to their stock-holders.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
bobbartop
bobbartop
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January 10th, 2019 at 11:22:11 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

When a winning video poker player plays at a casino, it decreases their revenue by losing money to him.



At the risk of repeating myself ad nauseum, the above doesn't apply to some winning APs playing progressive video poker. An AP playing a 7-5 Bonus Poker progressive with an 8000 coin jackpot is playing a winning game. As long as the casino is not giving him too much in mailers or benefits, the casino is winning off his play. The jackpot is "banked". That leaves him playing a 98% base game. If this AP adjusts his strategy to play more aggressively toward the jackpot, he's losing even more on the base game, but winning more on the whole, and so is the casino, a win-win, symbiotic relationship.

So I would set my casino up like that, and roll out the red carpet for certain APs, like the Progressive Video Poker Symbionese Liberation Army.
Don't believe anything until it is officially denied.

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