I hit the avg # of quads. Why did i still lose so much $?
December 17th, 2018 at 9:40:00 AM
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Quote: 100xOddsI guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses
This seems to be the case. You should record the results next time. Not getting enough Jacks or Better and Two Pair can also contribute to this.
December 17th, 2018 at 9:49:31 AM
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How about getting too many Jacks or Better and/or Two Pair? (as in my last data example)Quote: BlackjackLoverYou should record the results next time. Not getting enough Jacks or Better and Two Pair can also contribute to this.
a push is a push except when it takes away from a higher paying hand.
| Hand | Pay | net gain | Occurs Every | % Return | 100 | expected number | actual | return actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 4000 | 3995 | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.002081818 | 0 | 0 |
| Straight Flush | 250 | 245 | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.011315443 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 Aces | 800 | 795 | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.021896452 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 2s,3s,4s | 400 | 395 | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 0.052405408 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 5s thru Ks | 250 | 245 | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 0.160382352 | 0 | 0 |
| Full House | 45 | 40 | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 1.06292517 | 0 | 0 |
| Flush | 35 | 30 | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 1.52230172 | 1 | 30 |
| Straight | 25 | 20 | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 1.501952538 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 of a KIND | 15 | 10 | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 7.288629738 | 4 | 40 |
| 2 Pair | 5 | 0 | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 11.89060642 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacks or Better | 5 | 0 | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 19.68503937 | 25 | 0 |
| No Win | 0 | -5 | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 56.81818182 | 59 | -295 |
| totals | . | . | . | . | . | . | 100 | -205 |
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 17, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 17th, 2018 at 10:55:00 AM
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Quote: 7crapsHow about getting too many Jacks or Better and/or Two Pair? (as in my last data example)
a push is a push except when it takes away from a higher paying hand.
Yes, but I meant getting nothing instead of Jacks or Better or Two Pair.
December 17th, 2018 at 1:31:03 PM
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understandableQuote: BlackjackLoverYes, but I meant getting nothing instead of Jacks or Better or Two Pair.
Here is a session I just played of 2400 hands. OP game and denom.
lost $570
| net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| 245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |
| 795 | 4 aces | 3 | 1 | 795 | 0.526 | 0.474 |
| 395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |
| 245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 4 | 980 | 3.849 | 0.151 |
| 40 | Full house | 6 | 20 | 800 | 25.510 | -5.510 |
| 30 | Flush | 7 | 31 | 930 | 36.533 | -5.533 |
| 20 | Straight | 8 | 42 | 840 | 36.049 | 5.951 |
| 10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 150 | 1500 | 174.891 | -24.891 |
| 0 | Two pair | 10 | 313 | 0 | 285.420 | 27.580 |
| 0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 476 | 0 | 472.187 | 3.813 |
| -5 | Nothing | 12 | 1362 | -6810 | 1,363.456 | -1.456 |
| totals | . | . | 2400 | -570 | . | . |
Nothing was about right on.
Two Pair & 3oak kept the session down.
35.29% chance that any session has a loss of $570 or more over 2400 hands played.
Had to try again
want to win or at least lose ev
| net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| 245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |
| 795 | 4 aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.526 | -0.526 |
| 395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |
| 245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 5 | 1225 | 3.849 | 1.151 |
| 40 | Full house | 6 | 27 | 1080 | 25.510 | 1.490 |
| 30 | Flush | 7 | 33 | 990 | 36.533 | -3.533 |
| 20 | Straight | 8 | 41 | 820 | 36.049 | 4.951 |
| 10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 195 | 1950 | 174.891 | 20.109 |
| 0 | Two pair | 10 | 267 | 0 | 285.420 | -18.420 |
| 0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 490 | 0 | 472.187 | 17.813 |
| -5 | Nothing | 12 | 1341 | -6705 | 1,363.456 | -22.456 |
| totals | . | . | 2400 | -245 | . | . |
| 2400 | ||||||
| hands played |
never liked the no kicker games
-$245 session
one more time!
| net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| 245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |
| 795 | 4 aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.526 | -0.526 |
| 395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |
| 245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 4 | 980 | 3.849 | 0.151 |
| 40 | Full house | 6 | 20 | 800 | 25.510 | -5.510 |
| 30 | Flush | 7 | 34 | 1020 | 36.533 | -2.533 |
| 20 | Straight | 8 | 21 | 420 | 36.049 | -15.049 |
| 10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 191 | 1910 | 174.891 | 16.109 |
| 0 | Two pair | 10 | 294 | 0 | 285.420 | 8.580 |
| 0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 471 | 0 | 472.187 | -1.187 |
| -5 | Nothing | 12 | 1364 | -6820 | 1,363.456 | 0.544 |
| totals | . | . | 2400 | -1295 | . | . |
| 2400 | ||||||
| hands played |
LOL
Hey variance
what's up!
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 17, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 17th, 2018 at 4:31:35 PM
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never thought of any combination as being weird.Quote: 100xOddsor some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Dec 17, 2018
I Heart Vi Hart
December 19th, 2018 at 11:29:18 AM
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The big problem here is that in 2400 hands, you are entitled to 2400/40000 (6%) of the Royal Flush payout. If you add that to your total, you should be about where you are supposed to be.
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
December 19th, 2018 at 6:49:07 PM
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today another -$1100 loss in 2400 hands but different on how that was achieved.
1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(
2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses
edit:
I was surprised i didn't lose more since I didn't hit a quad.
1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(
2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses
edit:
I was surprised i didn't lose more since I didn't hit a quad.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 20, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 19th, 2018 at 11:20:10 PM
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The way she goes
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
December 20th, 2018 at 1:48:03 AM
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Quote: 100xOddstoday another -$1100 loss in 2400 hands but different on how that was achieved.
1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(
2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses
Very normal.
