I hit the avg # of quads. Why did i still lose so much $?
December 15th, 2018 at 8:21:39 PM
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$1 9/7 db (99.1% return)
$12k coin-in
avg quads = 1 quad per 600hands. $12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands
I hit 4 quads (2 regular @ $250 each, 2 baby @ $400 each)
still lost $1.1k :(
I needed 4 more quads to break even!?!
avg # of full houses in 2400 hands = 24.
so to be down that much but have hit the avg # of quads, I must have missed ALL the full houses? (I didn't)
$45 x 24 = $1080
or some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??
$12k coin-in
avg quads = 1 quad per 600hands. $12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands
I hit 4 quads (2 regular @ $250 each, 2 baby @ $400 each)
still lost $1.1k :(
I needed 4 more quads to break even!?!
avg # of full houses in 2400 hands = 24.
so to be down that much but have hit the avg # of quads, I must have missed ALL the full houses? (I didn't)
$45 x 24 = $1080
or some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 15th, 2018 at 8:26:52 PM
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It's not that difficult. You didnt hit a royal. Be glad to only be down 1k. Looks like you ran good since the royal is 2% of that return.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
December 15th, 2018 at 8:29:38 PM
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Quote: GWAEIt's not that difficult. You didnt hit a royal.
Be glad to only be down 1k. Looks like you ran good since the royal is 2% of that return.
but 2% of $12k coin-in = $240.
I still needed 3-4 more quads to breakeven?
given your reputation, I believe what you say in me running good is true but I just don't see how?
where's my disconnect?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 15th, 2018 at 8:37:03 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsbut 2% of $12k coin-in = $240.
I still needed 3-4 more quads to breakeven?
given your reputation, I believe what you say in me running good is true but I just don't see how?
where's my disconnect?
I dont have a reputation. My idiocity proved it. My brain said 2% was 2k.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
December 15th, 2018 at 8:38:06 PM
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Then my guess is you may have hit quads but did you hit the correct quads.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
December 15th, 2018 at 9:03:25 PM
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Royal, straight flush, aces and 2-4 quads are over 9% of return. So loss should be about 10% or $1200 if you hit none of those. About right.
December 16th, 2018 at 11:20:49 AM
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I hit two 2-4 quads.Quote: cf1984Royal, straight flush, aces and 2-4 quads are over 9% of return. So loss should be about 10% or $1200 if you hit none of those. About right.
so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined
$12k x 5.75% = $690
so im running pretty bad if I hit an extra baby quads and still down -$400 from theo.
here's a dumb question:
if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 16, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 16th, 2018 at 11:46:48 AM
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probability of losing 220 betting units or more (220 * $5)Quote: 100xOdds$1 9/7 db (99.1% return)
$12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands
still lost $1.1k :(
in 2.4k rounds = about 17.6%
that is slightly less than 1 in 6
unless you recorded your session, you may never know
(I tried doing that a few times, and was boring to watch over again)
I doubt you would have a perfect (or hit all the averages) distribution of all the payouts in 2400 rounds of play
just like rolling the dice at craps 36 rolls
and to see the exact distribution unfold (exact averages of each number)
for those that want to know
the probability that the distribution of 36 rolls is perfect {1,2,3,4,5,6,5,4,3,2,1}
is exactly
9250045137002152183263468938330112/13099176582667804290771484375
meaningless to the eye
about 1 in 706,154.702
is exactly
9250045137002152183263468938330112/13099176582667804290771484375
meaningless to the eye
about 1 in 706,154.702
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 16, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 16th, 2018 at 4:53:17 PM
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Were you using the correct strategy for the game? e.g., playing DDB on DB?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 16th, 2018 at 6:22:38 PM
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thought 9/6 ddb strat was bad for 9/7 db?Quote: AyecarumbaWere you using the correct strategy for the game? e.g., playing DDB on DB?
im using 9/7 db from wiz's strat maker.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 16th, 2018 at 6:39:13 PM
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The obvious answer is you finished below average on some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses, and straight flushes (including ace high SF)
December 16th, 2018 at 6:59:17 PM
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whats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf? (edit: nevermind.. im thinking A2345)Quote: TomGThe obvious answer is you finished below average on some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses, and straight flushes (including ace high SF)
and since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:
if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 17, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 16th, 2018 at 7:31:53 PM
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that is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.Quote: 100xOddsand since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:
if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?
you are trying to say you should flip a coin 2500 times
and you should get 1250 Heads, if not, where is the problem?
A video poker session of 2500 hands is meaningless
one can easily use a program and calculate ending intervals of X rounds played
that is about it
those that live for the average die from the average, because it just does not work out that way.
to answer your title Question
variance
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 16, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 16th, 2018 at 7:39:09 PM
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I always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
December 16th, 2018 at 8:09:10 PM
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depends on the game and the strategy.Quote: vegasI always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?
This game has different 4oak payouts with no kickers
I did not double-check the math on this
took 2 programs to be correct as they agreed
| Hand | Pay | %Probability | Occurs Every | % Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 4000 | 0.002 | 48,034.95 | 1.67 |
| Straight Flush | 250 | 0.011 | 8,837.48 | 0.57 |
| 4 Aces | 800 | 0.022 | 4,566.95 | 3.5 |
| 4 2s,3s,4s | 400 | 0.052 | 1908.2 | 4.19 |
| 4 5s thru Ks | 250 | 0.16 | 623.51 | 8.02 |
| Full House | 45 | 1.063 | 94.08 | 9.57 |
| Flush | 35 | 1.522 | 65.69 | 10.66 |
| Straight | 25 | 1.502 | 66.58 | 7.51 |
| 3 of a KIND | 15 | 7.287 | 13.72 | 21.86 |
| 2 Pair | 5 | 11.893 | 8.41 | 11.89 |
| Jacks or Better | 5 | 19.674 | 5.08 | 19.67 |
| No Win | 0 | 56.811 | 1.76 | 0 |
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 16th, 2018 at 8:52:47 PM
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Quote: 100xOddswhats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf?
If you don’t know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!
December 17th, 2018 at 5:23:15 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleIf you don’t know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!
lol.. I'm thinking A2345 as in the Ace being first
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 17th, 2018 at 5:40:41 AM
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ok, then I'm short 1/2 a quad in my 2400 hands.Quote: 7crapsthat is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.
2500 hands should avg:
4 regular, 1 baby = ($250 x 4) + $400 = $1400
in my 2400 hands, I got 2 regular and 2 baby = (2 x 250) + (2 x 400) = $1300
1400-1300 = $100
so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined
$12k coin-in x 5.75% = $690 + $100 = $790
getting a little closer to the $1.1k I lost.
I guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 17th, 2018 at 8:11:00 AM
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Quote: vegasI always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?
No 100X Odds is more wrong. The odds of any quad varies by game a bit. But it's a little better than in 1 in 420 overall for a game like Double Bonus. It's 1 in 600 number or so is just for 5s-Ks quads. So he is down 2 of those quads (500 coins). Up about 3/4s of a baby (300 coins), but down about one half of four Aces (400 coins). Also he has about 5% chance at a royal (200 coins) and 25% chance at a straight flush (62 coins) by now. And the house edge over this amount of play (107 coins). Adding this all up, it's definitely possible to lose 1100 coins in 2400 hands. 500 - 300 + 400 + 200 + 62 + 107 = 969 coins lost. The rest of the difference can be easily from lack of full houses, flushes, etc.
December 17th, 2018 at 9:11:57 AM
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you really need to record your session of play and/or track all hand outcomes.Quote: 100xOddsok,
why guess about it?
| Hand | Occurs Every | % Return | 2400 | avg # |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.04996362 |
| Straight Flush | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.271570629 |
| 4 Aces | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.52551484 |
| 4 2s,3s,4s | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 1.257729798 |
| 4 5s thru Ks | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 3.849176437 |
| Full House | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 25.51020408 |
| Flush | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 36.53524128 |
| Straight | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 36.04686092 |
| 3 of a KIND | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 174.9271137 |
| 2 Pair | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 285.3745541 |
| Jacks or Better | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 472.4409449 |
| No Win | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 1363.636364 |
over 2400 rounds of play, your averages will be between integers. what do you do with those?
you can not hit 25.5 full houses.
you are down because
1 in 6 sessions, on average, will end $1100 or more as a loss
and so far you have 1 session down that much.
the math also says you could have 2 out of 6 sessions down at least that much.
only about 71% chance you lose at least $1100
0 or 1 time.
28.6% you lose that much or more at least 2 times.
====================================
here is an example with NO math applied
played 100 hands
lost a whopping $205 (same game/denom as OP)
| Hand | Occurs Every | % Return | 100 | expected number | actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.002081818 | 0 |
| Straight Flush | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.011315443 | 0 |
| 4 Aces | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.021896452 | 0 |
| 4 2s,3s,4s | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 0.052405408 | 0 |
| 4 5s thru Ks | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 0.160382352 | 0 |
| Full House | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 1.06292517 | 0 |
| Flush | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 1.52230172 | 1 |
| Straight | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 1.501952538 | 1 |
| 3 of a KIND | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 7.288629738 | 4 |
| 2 Pair | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 11.89060642 | 10 |
| Jacks or Better | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 19.68503937 | 25 |
| No Win | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 56.81818182 | 59 |
| total | . | . | . | . | 100 |
conclusion:
well, just like flipping a fair coin 100 times. I did not get exactly 50 heads so I will flip 2300 more times
and that should give a higher probability to end up with exactly 1200 Heads.
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 17, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 17th, 2018 at 9:40:00 AM
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Quote: 100xOddsI guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses
This seems to be the case. You should record the results next time. Not getting enough Jacks or Better and Two Pair can also contribute to this.
December 17th, 2018 at 9:49:31 AM
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How about getting too many Jacks or Better and/or Two Pair? (as in my last data example)Quote: BlackjackLoverYou should record the results next time. Not getting enough Jacks or Better and Two Pair can also contribute to this.
a push is a push except when it takes away from a higher paying hand.
| Hand | Pay | net gain | Occurs Every | % Return | 100 | expected number | actual | return actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 4000 | 3995 | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.002081818 | 0 | 0 |
| Straight Flush | 250 | 245 | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.011315443 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 Aces | 800 | 795 | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.021896452 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 2s,3s,4s | 400 | 395 | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 0.052405408 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 5s thru Ks | 250 | 245 | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 0.160382352 | 0 | 0 |
| Full House | 45 | 40 | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 1.06292517 | 0 | 0 |
| Flush | 35 | 30 | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 1.52230172 | 1 | 30 |
| Straight | 25 | 20 | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 1.501952538 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 of a KIND | 15 | 10 | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 7.288629738 | 4 | 40 |
| 2 Pair | 5 | 0 | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 11.89060642 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacks or Better | 5 | 0 | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 19.68503937 | 25 | 0 |
| No Win | 0 | -5 | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 56.81818182 | 59 | -295 |
| totals | . | . | . | . | . | . | 100 | -205 |
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 17, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 17th, 2018 at 10:55:00 AM
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Quote: 7crapsHow about getting too many Jacks or Better and/or Two Pair? (as in my last data example)
a push is a push except when it takes away from a higher paying hand.
Yes, but I meant getting nothing instead of Jacks or Better or Two Pair.
December 17th, 2018 at 1:31:03 PM
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understandableQuote: BlackjackLoverYes, but I meant getting nothing instead of Jacks or Better or Two Pair.
Here is a session I just played of 2400 hands. OP game and denom.
lost $570
| net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| 245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |
| 795 | 4 aces | 3 | 1 | 795 | 0.526 | 0.474 |
| 395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |
| 245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 4 | 980 | 3.849 | 0.151 |
| 40 | Full house | 6 | 20 | 800 | 25.510 | -5.510 |
| 30 | Flush | 7 | 31 | 930 | 36.533 | -5.533 |
| 20 | Straight | 8 | 42 | 840 | 36.049 | 5.951 |
| 10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 150 | 1500 | 174.891 | -24.891 |
| 0 | Two pair | 10 | 313 | 0 | 285.420 | 27.580 |
| 0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 476 | 0 | 472.187 | 3.813 |
| -5 | Nothing | 12 | 1362 | -6810 | 1,363.456 | -1.456 |
| totals | . | . | 2400 | -570 | . | . |
Nothing was about right on.
Two Pair & 3oak kept the session down.
35.29% chance that any session has a loss of $570 or more over 2400 hands played.
Had to try again
want to win or at least lose ev
| net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| 245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |
| 795 | 4 aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.526 | -0.526 |
| 395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |
| 245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 5 | 1225 | 3.849 | 1.151 |
| 40 | Full house | 6 | 27 | 1080 | 25.510 | 1.490 |
| 30 | Flush | 7 | 33 | 990 | 36.533 | -3.533 |
| 20 | Straight | 8 | 41 | 820 | 36.049 | 4.951 |
| 10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 195 | 1950 | 174.891 | 20.109 |
| 0 | Two pair | 10 | 267 | 0 | 285.420 | -18.420 |
| 0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 490 | 0 | 472.187 | 17.813 |
| -5 | Nothing | 12 | 1341 | -6705 | 1,363.456 | -22.456 |
| totals | . | . | 2400 | -245 | . | . |
| 2400 | ||||||
| hands played |
never liked the no kicker games
-$245 session
one more time!
| net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| 245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |
| 795 | 4 aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.526 | -0.526 |
| 395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |
| 245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 4 | 980 | 3.849 | 0.151 |
| 40 | Full house | 6 | 20 | 800 | 25.510 | -5.510 |
| 30 | Flush | 7 | 34 | 1020 | 36.533 | -2.533 |
| 20 | Straight | 8 | 21 | 420 | 36.049 | -15.049 |
| 10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 191 | 1910 | 174.891 | 16.109 |
| 0 | Two pair | 10 | 294 | 0 | 285.420 | 8.580 |
| 0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 471 | 0 | 472.187 | -1.187 |
| -5 | Nothing | 12 | 1364 | -6820 | 1,363.456 | 0.544 |
| totals | . | . | 2400 | -1295 | . | . |
| 2400 | ||||||
| hands played |
LOL
Hey variance
what's up!
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 17, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
December 17th, 2018 at 4:31:35 PM
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never thought of any combination as being weird.Quote: 100xOddsor some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Dec 17, 2018
I Heart Vi Hart
December 19th, 2018 at 11:29:18 AM
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The big problem here is that in 2400 hands, you are entitled to 2400/40000 (6%) of the Royal Flush payout. If you add that to your total, you should be about where you are supposed to be.
Beware, I work for the dark side.... We have cookies
December 19th, 2018 at 6:49:07 PM
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today another -$1100 loss in 2400 hands but different on how that was achieved.
1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(
2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses
edit:
I was surprised i didn't lose more since I didn't hit a quad.
1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(
2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses
edit:
I was surprised i didn't lose more since I didn't hit a quad.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 20, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
December 19th, 2018 at 11:20:10 PM
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The way she goes
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
December 20th, 2018 at 1:48:03 AM
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Quote: 100xOddstoday another -$1100 loss in 2400 hands but different on how that was achieved.
1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(
2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses
Very normal.
