$12k coin-in

avg quads = 1 quad per 600hands. $12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands

I hit 4 quads (2 regular @ $250 each, 2 baby @ $400 each)

still lost $1.1k :(

I needed 4 more quads to break even!?!

avg # of full houses in 2400 hands = 24.

so to be down that much but have hit the avg # of quads, I must have missed ALL the full houses? (I didn't)

$45 x 24 = $1080

or some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??

Quote:GWAEIt's not that difficult. You didnt hit a royal.

Be glad to only be down 1k. Looks like you ran good since the royal is 2% of that return.

but 2% of $12k coin-in = $240.

I still needed 3-4 more quads to breakeven?

given your reputation, I believe what you say in me running good is true but I just don't see how?

where's my disconnect?

Quote:100xOddsbut 2% of $12k coin-in = $240.

I still needed 3-4 more quads to breakeven?

given your reputation, I believe what you say in me running good is true but I just don't see how?

where's my disconnect?

I dont have a reputation. My idiocity proved it. My brain said 2% was 2k.

I hit two 2-4 quads.Quote:cf1984Royal, straight flush, aces and 2-4 quads are over 9% of return. So loss should be about 10% or $1200 if you hit none of those. About right.

so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined

$12k x 5.75% = $690

so im running pretty bad if I hit an extra baby quads and still down -$400 from theo.

here's a dumb question:

if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands?

probability of losing 220 betting units or more (220 * $5)Quote:100xOdds$1 9/7 db (99.1% return)

$12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands

still lost $1.1k :(

in 2.4k rounds = about 17.6%

that is slightly less than 1 in 6

unless you recorded your session, you may never know

(I tried doing that a few times, and was boring to watch over again)

I doubt you would have a perfect (or hit all the averages) distribution of all the payouts in 2400 rounds of play

just like rolling the dice at craps 36 rolls

and to see the exact distribution unfold (exact averages of each number)

for those that want to know

is exactly

9250045137002152183263468938330112/13099176582667804290771484375

meaningless to the eye

about 1 in 706,154.702

thought 9/6 ddb strat was bad for 9/7 db?Quote:AyecarumbaWere you using the correct strategy for the game? e.g., playing DDB on DB?

im using 9/7 db from wiz's strat maker.

whats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf? (edit: nevermind.. im thinking A2345)Quote:TomGThe obvious answer is you finished below average on some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses, and straight flushes (including ace high SF)

and since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:

if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?

that is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.Quote:100xOddsand since no one answered this in the previous page, i'll ask again:

if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands (for a total of 5 quads)?

you are trying to say you should flip a coin 2500 times

and you should get 1250 Heads, if not, where is the problem?

A video poker session of 2500 hands is meaningless

one can easily use a program and calculate ending intervals of X rounds played

that is about it

those that live for the average die from the average, because it just does not work out that way.

to answer your title Question

depends on the game and the strategy.Quote:vegasI always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?

This game has different 4oak payouts with no kickers

I did not double-check the math on this

took 2 programs to be correct as they agreed

Hand | Pay | %Probability | Occurs Every | % Return |
---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 4000 | 0.002 | 48,034.95 | 1.67 |

Straight Flush | 250 | 0.011 | 8,837.48 | 0.57 |

4 Aces | 800 | 0.022 | 4,566.95 | 3.5 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 400 | 0.052 | 1908.2 | 4.19 |

4 5s thru Ks | 250 | 0.16 | 623.51 | 8.02 |

Full House | 45 | 1.063 | 94.08 | 9.57 |

Flush | 35 | 1.522 | 65.69 | 10.66 |

Straight | 25 | 1.502 | 66.58 | 7.51 |

3 of a KIND | 15 | 7.287 | 13.72 | 21.86 |

2 Pair | 5 | 11.893 | 8.41 | 11.89 |

Jacks or Better | 5 | 19.674 | 5.08 | 19.67 |

No Win | 0 | 56.811 | 1.76 | 0 |

Quote:100xOddswhats so special about an ace high SF over any other sf?

If you don’t know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!

Quote:FinsRuleIf you don’t know the answer to that, you definitely need to find a new game!

lol.. I'm thinking A2345 as in the Ace being first

ok, then I'm short 1/2 a quad in my 2400 hands.Quote:7crapsthat is a LONG TERM AVERAGE. 2500 hands of VP will never be long term.

2500 hands should avg:

4 regular, 1 baby = ($250 x 4) + $400 = $1400

in my 2400 hands, I got 2 regular and 2 baby = (2 x 250) + (2 x 400) = $1300

1400-1300 = $100

so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined

$12k coin-in x 5.75% = $690 + $100 = $790

getting a little closer to the $1.1k I lost.

I guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses

Quote:vegasI always thought 4 of a kind occur a bit more than every 400 hands not 600 hands. Have I been wrong all these years?

No 100X Odds is more wrong. The odds of any quad varies by game a bit. But it's a little better than in 1 in 420 overall for a game like Double Bonus. It's 1 in 600 number or so is just for 5s-Ks quads. So he is down 2 of those quads (500 coins). Up about 3/4s of a baby (300 coins), but down about one half of four Aces (400 coins). Also he has about 5% chance at a royal (200 coins) and 25% chance at a straight flush (62 coins) by now. And the house edge over this amount of play (107 coins). Adding this all up, it's definitely possible to lose 1100 coins in 2400 hands. 500 - 300 + 400 + 200 + 62 + 107 = 969 coins lost. The rest of the difference can be easily from lack of full houses, flushes, etc.

you really need to record your session of play and/or track all hand outcomes.Quote:100xOddsok,

why guess about it?

Hand | Occurs Every | % Return | 2400 | avg # |
---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.04996362 |

Straight Flush | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.271570629 |

4 Aces | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.52551484 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 1.257729798 |

4 5s thru Ks | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 3.849176437 |

Full House | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 25.51020408 |

Flush | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 36.53524128 |

Straight | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 36.04686092 |

3 of a KIND | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 174.9271137 |

2 Pair | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 285.3745541 |

Jacks or Better | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 472.4409449 |

No Win | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 1363.636364 |

over 2400 rounds of play, your averages will be between integers. what do you do with those?

you can not hit 25.5 full houses.

you are down because

1 in 6 sessions, on average, will end $1100 or more as a loss

and so far you have 1 session down that much.

the math also says you could have 2 out of 6 sessions down at least that much.

only about 71% chance you lose at least $1100

0 or 1 time.

28.6% you lose that much or more at least 2 times.

====================================

here is an example with NO math applied

played 100 hands

lost a whopping $205 (same game/denom as OP)

Hand | Occurs Every | % Return | 100 | expected number | actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.002081818 | 0 |

Straight Flush | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.011315443 | 0 |

4 Aces | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.021896452 | 0 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 0.052405408 | 0 |

4 5s thru Ks | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 0.160382352 | 0 |

Full House | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 1.06292517 | 0 |

Flush | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 1.52230172 | 1 |

Straight | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 1.501952538 | 1 |

3 of a KIND | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 7.288629738 | 4 |

2 Pair | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 11.89060642 | 10 |

Jacks or Better | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 19.68503937 | 25 |

No Win | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 56.81818182 | 59 |

total | . | . | . | . | 100 |

conclusion:

well, just like flipping a fair coin 100 times. I did not get exactly 50 heads so I will flip 2300 more times

and that should give a higher probability to end up with exactly 1200 Heads.

Quote:100xOddsI guess the rest is being short in some combination of three-of-a-kinds, straights, flushes, full houses

This seems to be the case. You should record the results next time. Not getting enough Jacks or Better and Two Pair can also contribute to this.

How about getting too many Jacks or Better and/or Two Pair? (as in my last data example)Quote:BlackjackLoverYou should record the results next time. Not getting enough Jacks or Better and Two Pair can also contribute to this.

a push is a push except when it takes away from a higher paying hand.

Hand | Pay | net gain | Occurs Every | % Return | 100 | expected number | actual | return actual |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Royal Flush | 4000 | 3995 | 48,034.95 | 1.67 | 2.08182E-05 | 0.002081818 | 0 | 0 |

Straight Flush | 250 | 245 | 8,837.48 | 0.57 | 0.000113154 | 0.011315443 | 0 | 0 |

4 Aces | 800 | 795 | 4,566.95 | 3.5 | 0.000218965 | 0.021896452 | 0 | 0 |

4 2s,3s,4s | 400 | 395 | 1908.2 | 4.19 | 0.000524054 | 0.052405408 | 0 | 0 |

4 5s thru Ks | 250 | 245 | 623.51 | 8.02 | 0.001603824 | 0.160382352 | 0 | 0 |

Full House | 45 | 40 | 94.08 | 9.57 | 0.010629252 | 1.06292517 | 0 | 0 |

Flush | 35 | 30 | 65.69 | 10.66 | 0.015223017 | 1.52230172 | 1 | 30 |

Straight | 25 | 20 | 66.58 | 7.51 | 0.015019525 | 1.501952538 | 1 | 20 |

3 of a KIND | 15 | 10 | 13.72 | 21.86 | 0.072886297 | 7.288629738 | 4 | 40 |

2 Pair | 5 | 0 | 8.41 | 11.89 | 0.118906064 | 11.89060642 | 10 | 0 |

Jacks or Better | 5 | 0 | 5.08 | 19.67 | 0.196850394 | 19.68503937 | 25 | 0 |

No Win | 0 | -5 | 1.76 | 0 | 0.568181818 | 56.81818182 | 59 | -295 |

totals | . | . | . | . | . | . | 100 | -205 |

Quote:7crapsHow about getting too many Jacks or Better and/or Two Pair? (as in my last data example)

a push is a push except when it takes away from a higher paying hand.

Yes, but I meant getting nothing instead of Jacks or Better or Two Pair.

understandableQuote:BlackjackLoverYes, but I meant getting nothing instead of Jacks or Better or Two Pair.

Here is a session I just played of 2400 hands. OP game and denom.

lost $570

net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |

245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |

795 | 4 aces | 3 | 1 | 795 | 0.526 | 0.474 |

395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |

245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 4 | 980 | 3.849 | 0.151 |

40 | Full house | 6 | 20 | 800 | 25.510 | -5.510 |

30 | Flush | 7 | 31 | 930 | 36.533 | -5.533 |

20 | Straight | 8 | 42 | 840 | 36.049 | 5.951 |

10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 150 | 1500 | 174.891 | -24.891 |

0 | Two pair | 10 | 313 | 0 | 285.420 | 27.580 |

0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 476 | 0 | 472.187 | 3.813 |

-5 | Nothing | 12 | 1362 | -6810 | 1,363.456 | -1.456 |

totals | . | . | 2400 | -570 | . | . |

Nothing was about right on.

Two Pair & 3oak kept the session down.

35.29% chance that any session has a loss of $570 or more over 2400 hands played.

Had to try again

want to win or at least lose ev

net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |

245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |

795 | 4 aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.526 | -0.526 |

395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |

245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 5 | 1225 | 3.849 | 1.151 |

40 | Full house | 6 | 27 | 1080 | 25.510 | 1.490 |

30 | Flush | 7 | 33 | 990 | 36.533 | -3.533 |

20 | Straight | 8 | 41 | 820 | 36.049 | 4.951 |

10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 195 | 1950 | 174.891 | 20.109 |

0 | Two pair | 10 | 267 | 0 | 285.420 | -18.420 |

0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 490 | 0 | 472.187 | 17.813 |

-5 | Nothing | 12 | 1341 | -6705 | 1,363.456 | -22.456 |

totals | . | . | 2400 | -245 | . | . |

2400 | ||||||

hands played |

never liked the no kicker games

-$245 session

one more time!

net | result | index | count | return | expected number | diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

3995 | Royal flush | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.050 | -0.050 |

245 | Straight flush | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.272 | -0.272 |

795 | 4 aces | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.526 | -0.526 |

395 | 4 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 395 | 1.258 | -0.258 |

245 | 4 5-K | 5 | 4 | 980 | 3.849 | 0.151 |

40 | Full house | 6 | 20 | 800 | 25.510 | -5.510 |

30 | Flush | 7 | 34 | 1020 | 36.533 | -2.533 |

20 | Straight | 8 | 21 | 420 | 36.049 | -15.049 |

10 | 3 of a kind | 9 | 191 | 1910 | 174.891 | 16.109 |

0 | Two pair | 10 | 294 | 0 | 285.420 | 8.580 |

0 | Jacks or better | 11 | 471 | 0 | 472.187 | -1.187 |

-5 | Nothing | 12 | 1364 | -6820 | 1,363.456 | 0.544 |

totals | . | . | 2400 | -1295 | . | . |

2400 | ||||||

hands played |

LOL

Hey variance

what's up!

never thought of any combination as being weird.Quote:100xOddsor some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??

Sally

1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(

2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses

edit:

I was surprised i didn't lose more since I didn't hit a quad.

Quote:100xOddstoday another -$1100 loss in 2400 hands but different on how that was achieved.

1) no quads or better (WTF!!!!) :(

2) lots of straights. flushes and full houses

Very normal.