100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 514
  • Posts: 3028
December 15th, 2018 at 8:21:39 PM permalink
$1 9/7 db (99.1% return)
$12k coin-in

avg quads = 1 quad per 600hands. $12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands
I hit 4 quads (2 regular @ $250 each, 2 baby @ $400 each)

still lost $1.1k :(
I needed 4 more quads to break even!?!

avg # of full houses in 2400 hands = 24.
so to be down that much but have hit the avg # of quads, I must have missed ALL the full houses? (I didn't)
$45 x 24 = $1080

or some weird combination of missing a lot of full houses, flushes, straights, trips, 2 pair and high pairs??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
December 15th, 2018 at 8:26:52 PM permalink
It's not that difficult. You didnt hit a royal. Be glad to only be down 1k. Looks like you ran good since the royal is 2% of that return.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 514
  • Posts: 3028
December 15th, 2018 at 8:29:38 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

It's not that difficult. You didnt hit a royal.
Be glad to only be down 1k. Looks like you ran good since the royal is 2% of that return.


but 2% of $12k coin-in = $240.

I still needed 3-4 more quads to breakeven?

given your reputation, I believe what you say in me running good is true but I just don't see how?
where's my disconnect?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
December 15th, 2018 at 8:37:03 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

but 2% of $12k coin-in = $240.

I still needed 3-4 more quads to breakeven?

given your reputation, I believe what you say in me running good is true but I just don't see how?
where's my disconnect?



I dont have a reputation. My idiocity proved it. My brain said 2% was 2k.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
December 15th, 2018 at 8:38:06 PM permalink
Then my guess is you may have hit quads but did you hit the correct quads.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
cf1984
cf1984
Joined: Jul 19, 2014
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 32
December 15th, 2018 at 9:03:25 PM permalink
Royal, straight flush, aces and 2-4 quads are over 9% of return. So loss should be about 10% or $1200 if you hit none of those. About right.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 514
  • Posts: 3028
December 16th, 2018 at 11:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: cf1984

Royal, straight flush, aces and 2-4 quads are over 9% of return. So loss should be about 10% or $1200 if you hit none of those. About right.

I hit two 2-4 quads.

so Royal, straight flush, and quad aces = 5.75% combined
$12k x 5.75% = $690

so im running pretty bad if I hit an extra baby quads and still down -$400 from theo.

here's a dumb question:
if odds of hitting a regular quad is 600:1 and hitting a baby quad is 1900:1, then should I be averaging 4 regular quads AND 1 baby quad in 2500 hands?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 16, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
December 16th, 2018 at 11:46:48 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

$1 9/7 db (99.1% return)
$12k coin-in at $1 denom max bet = 2400 hands

still lost $1.1k :(

probability of losing 220 betting units or more (220 * $5)
in 2.4k rounds = about 17.6%
that is slightly less than 1 in 6

unless you recorded your session, you may never know
(I tried doing that a few times, and was boring to watch over again)
I doubt you would have a perfect (or hit all the averages) distribution of all the payouts in 2400 rounds of play

just like rolling the dice at craps 36 rolls
and to see the exact distribution unfold (exact averages of each number)
for those that want to know
the probability that the distribution of 36 rolls is perfect {1,2,3,4,5,6,5,4,3,2,1}
is exactly
9250045137002152183263468938330112/13099176582667804290771484375
meaningless to the eye
about 1 in 706,154.702
Last edited by: 7craps on Dec 16, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
December 16th, 2018 at 4:53:17 PM permalink
Were you using the correct strategy for the game? e.g., playing DDB on DB?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 514
  • Posts: 3028
December 16th, 2018 at 6:22:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Were you using the correct strategy for the game? e.g., playing DDB on DB?

thought 9/6 ddb strat was bad for 9/7 db?

im using 9/7 db from wiz's strat maker.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

  • Jump to: