Ferehiwot
Ferehiwot
Joined: Nov 3, 2017
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November 3rd, 2017 at 7:08:16 AM permalink
10 play super times pay double double bonus. got the AAA99 with ten times pay. I redrew and kept the aces. Is that correct? PS- no improvement got three of a kind 10 times (shocking)
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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Ferehiwot
November 3rd, 2017 at 7:09:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ferehiwot

10 play super times pay double double bonus. got the AAA99 with ten times pay. I redrew and kept the aces. Is that correct? PS- no improvement got three of a kind 10 times (shocking)


STP doesn't matter. It's always correct to just hold the three aces in DDB.

And bricking all ten isn't uncommon. You're expect number of quads are 10/23.5 = 0.4255319149. So you'll connect less than half the time on average.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
boymimbo
boymimbo
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Ferehiwot
November 3rd, 2017 at 9:42:29 AM permalink
Not quite that simple.

Odds of seeing a quad on single hand would be 1-(46/47)*(45/46) = 4.2553% (or as you say 1 in 23.5).
Odds of seeing zero quads on 10 hands is 1-(((46/47)*(45/46))^10 ) = 64.74% - deals are independent.
Odds of seeing one quad is 28.77%
Odds of seeing two quads is 5.75%
Odds of seeing three quads is 0.682%
Odds of seeing four quads or more is 0.056%
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Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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Ferehiwot
November 3rd, 2017 at 10:21:17 AM permalink
Close enough.

Basically, don't expect to hit a quad holding 3oak on ten play.
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