100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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September 11th, 2016 at 5:09:03 AM permalink
$1 single line dstp (9/5 JoB) -> 99%

my goal was 500 tier credits ($5k coin-in) to get the 125 bonus tc.
put in $100 and never dropped below that amount!

I hit every multiplier that wasn't a 2x.
highest I reached was +$400.
when I hit the 500tc mark, I was +$200.

I was thinking since this machine is hot, I'd ride the positive variance till im either +$500 or at breakeven (+$0).
then I thought gamblers fallacy (a HOT machine), and quit when I reached my original stop limit.

when would you have stopped?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Sep 11, 2016
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
GWAE
GWAE
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September 11th, 2016 at 5:19:49 AM permalink
Ummm really? A hot machine? I think you play enough to know better. Obviously you stop when you reach your original goal.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
100xOdds
100xOdds
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September 11th, 2016 at 5:39:21 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Ummm really? A hot machine? I think you play enough to know better. Obviously you stop when you reach your original goal.


Hot machine... yeah, I know.

but I remember that time that I made DiaD on a $2 single line 9/6 JoB.
for $50k coin-in, I couldn't lose. when I made Diamond (8hrs), I was up a few hundred.

probably selective memory?
im forgetting all those times a hot machine turned cold on a dime
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Sep 11, 2016
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
GWAE
GWAE
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September 11th, 2016 at 6:48:24 AM permalink
I actually understand what you are saying. It seems like there are times where every draw hits, deal multiple 3oak in a row, multiple 2 pairs. It feels like I can't lose. Then there are times like last Thursday where $100 on a 8/5 job gets me $315 coin in.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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September 11th, 2016 at 9:08:35 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

my goal was 500 tier credits



Then you should have stopped when you accumulated that many credits, regardless of your results up to that point. Every hand you played cost you something like 4 cents in EV, so the longer you played, the more you stood to lose--and your actual results don't change that.

You already mentioned that the concept of a "hot" machine is a fallacy, but we are so very predisposed--hardwired--to seek out patterns in phenomena, especially when we have a material interest in them--that we often manage to blot out logic in our quest to follow those patterns. Even when we're well aware of the gambler's fallacy, there's still that "pull"--"psst! The machine's hot! Keep playing." And CET gets a little richer...(or, i suppose, less bankrupt).
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 11th, 2016 at 9:41:37 AM permalink
Are 500 tier credits and a bonus even worth going to the casino? They're not for me obviously for personal reasons, mainly Atlantic City being the closest I rarely would visit, and not close by any means.

The question you posed is pretty simple, where we're pretty much forced to agree with you. Sounds like you can easily afford the bets you were making, and you like gambling, the machine isn't too bad a gamble, and you could play on to another reward level. Quitting the machine depends on if you're really quitting for the day or not.

Even quitting because the machine got in your head is good enough if that would make you comfortable. Sometimes gambling feeling too good can almost be as bad as being horrible, just because it feels like a set-up for emotional torture you're anticipating to unfold at any moment.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker. Hold my beer.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
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September 11th, 2016 at 12:27:05 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

$1 single line dstp (9/5 JoB) -> 99%

my goal was 500 tier credits ($5k coin-in) to get the 125 bonus tc.
put in $100 and never dropped below that amount!

I hit every multiplier that wasn't a 2x.
highest I reached was +$400.
when I hit the 500tc mark, I was +$200.

I was thinking since this machine is hot, I'd ride the positive variance till im either +$500 or at breakeven (+$0).
then I thought gamblers fallacy (a HOT machine), and quit when I reached my original stop limit.

when would you have stopped?


Well done 100x.

Sounds like you quit at a reasonable time. If you'd played on for 500 or zero and had found yourself at ZERO, might you not have been inclined to say . DAMMIT I won't walk away without some profit: I'll play on till I'm $10 up. And then just spiral down a pit of despair.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
RS
RS
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September 11th, 2016 at 2:24:47 PM permalink
Being up $400 on 3-play 9/5 JoB STP for $1 denom....is a hot machine? I'd say you'd have to be up at least $1,500 before saying the machine was "hot" (not that it really is or whatever but you know what I'm saying).

But I probably would have quit after reaching my coon-in goal.
monet0412
monet0412
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September 16th, 2016 at 8:22:28 PM permalink
Hot and Cold Machines?? Good and Bad Luck?? These are myths that I do not believe in. I think the answer is very simple. If you are on a play that is +EV... you never stop. You might want to take a break or go home and sleep or go to dinner but you just keep playing +EV over and over and over and over. I hear this conversation all the time though from my own family. I will be on some Reel Machine that is positive and up 3k without hitting the jackpot. A few hours later I lose back the 3k and end up being upside down. Now I hit the Jackpot and go home losing 300 dollars. My wife says... you should of stopped lol. I say... (sure sure), but I'll just be playing this again or on some other play tomorrow so why stop now? I kinda live by a simple saying... the more you play the more they pay! Nice and simple.
RS
RS
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September 17th, 2016 at 5:21:06 AM permalink
Quote: monet0412

Hot and Cold Machines?? Good and Bad Luck?? These are myths that I do not believe in. I think the answer is very simple. If you are on a play that is +EV... you never stop. You might want to take a break or go home and sleep or go to dinner but you just keep playing +EV over and over and over and over. I hear this conversation all the time though from my own family. I will be on some Reel Machine that is positive and up 3k without hitting the jackpot. A few hours later I lose back the 3k and end up being upside down. Now I hit the Jackpot and go home losing 300 dollars. My wife says... you should of stopped lol. I say... (sure sure), but I'll just be playing this again or on some other play tomorrow so why stop now? I kinda live by a simple saying... the more you play the more they pay! Nice and simple.



Agreed.

My parents are kinda the same way. They love hearing the stories of when I hit a big royal or AWAK or killed it on some promo or whatever. But if I tell them about a losing trip or losing play they're all like telling me I shouldn't be gambling and losing that much money or I should have stopped earlier. Can't they just accept the individual wins or individual losses don't really mean all that much?

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