turbostat
turbostat
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October 21st, 2015 at 12:49:31 PM permalink
hey,

How to count HE per unit wagered with double-up feature?

How looks the formula for mixed double-up strategy? For example, if I don't double on RF and SF, and double only 1 time all other win hands?
Romes
Romes
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October 21st, 2015 at 1:38:54 PM permalink
Quote: turbostat

hey,

How to count HE per unit wagered with double-up feature?

How looks the formula for mixed double-up strategy? For example, if I don't double on RF and SF, and double only 1 time all other win hands?

This is a pretty incoherent OP... What's your question?

The double up feature is a separate bet in which you have a 50/50 chance of doubling your money. It essentially increases volatility... and since the casino has a much, much larger bankroll than you, they'll keep coin flipping with you until you're broke, because you're not going to break them.

The house edge of the VP machine doesn't change, but your ER can change if you dedicate and say "I'm always going to double up X times" or "I'm always going to double up on these hands", etc. I actually did some deep math analysis on this a while back... it amplifies whatever machine you're playing, if you're going to always double on certain hands. Now, if you find a machine over 100% payback, well then it would amplify it that way too! Too bad you a) very very rarely find 100%+ VP games, and b) would need a team to log a ton of hours to really get the hands you need to make a meaningful impact.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
turbostat
turbostat
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October 21st, 2015 at 3:02:14 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I actually did some deep math analysis on this a while back...

just post it here

Quote: Romes

This is a pretty incoherent OP... What's your question?

using double-up feature changed HE per unit wagered. I need the formula.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 21st, 2015 at 8:11:17 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

This is a pretty incoherent OP... What's your question?

The double up feature is a separate bet in which you have a 50/50 chance of doubling your money. It essentially increases volatility... and since the casino has a much, much larger bankroll than you, they'll keep coin flipping with you until you're broke, because you're not going to break them.

The house edge of the VP machine doesn't change, but your ER can change if you dedicate and say "I'm always going to double up X times" or "I'm always going to double up on these hands", etc. I actually did some deep math analysis on this a while back... it amplifies whatever machine you're playing, if you're going to always double on certain hands. Now, if you find a machine over 100% payback, well then it would amplify it that way too! Too bad you a) very very rarely find 100%+ VP games, and b) would need a team to log a ton of hours to really get the hands you need to make a meaningful impact.

? explain why doubling on a +EV game is good?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
redjohn
redjohn
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October 21st, 2015 at 8:21:04 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

? explain why doubling on a +EV game is good?




Because it is always better to put your money on a neutral bet, versus where you have an advantage. Are you sure you are an advantage player ?

Perhaps Robin can explain it to you .
MaxPen
MaxPen
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October 22nd, 2015 at 1:18:55 AM permalink
Only the first attempt is 50/50, but also comes with the chance of a push. Multiple consecutive attempts carry a house advantage. Please explain why the double up feature would be good in a positive ev situation. If a person is at a 51/49 expectation why would they then want to play 50/50when that reduces expectation?
Romes
Romes
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October 23rd, 2015 at 6:59:37 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

? explain why doubling on a +EV game is good?

If I can remember I'll post a picture I took of my white board later... In order to make decent money you need a team playing a lot of hands, but now that I think of it you have a team. The biggest problem for you would be finding +EV machines WITH the double up feature, at at least like 4-5 of them that your team could play a ton on. That's why the math ended up working out, but I found that it just wasn't plausible.

I'll give a spoiler: I ran the math for the theory that I would double EVERYTHING to get to a MAX PAY with NO W2. I ran the frequencies of the hand with the number of doubles their payout would need to get to Max Pay No W2. There's a LOT more to it... but I double checked it and I do believe it's correct, just not probable.

EDIT


Yeah, forgive my scribbles, but you should be able to figure it out...

*I'd also like to note that at some point there was probably more calculations on the board I had to erase to move forward. The gist is on the board though.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
turbostat
turbostat
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October 25th, 2015 at 10:42:06 AM permalink
I found the simple formula for slots double-up.

HE/(1+n*(1-HE))

will it work for VP?
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