Perception is reality?

Relating to the earlier thread about VP payback percentages and why the casinos allow them to be so high compared to slots, etc.

Recently, I went to the IP in Biloxi. I had a paltry 15 bucks in free play because I go there so seldom, and when I do, I only bring $100 because for me, even in the non-smoking section, the place just isn't ...comfortable for me. I don't like it, preferring the smoke free Palace Casino instead.

While there, I saw a bank of machines that touted the elusive 9/6 payback - which certainly looks to be the best deal in Biloxi casinos, as far as I can tell.

I was playing $1, max bet for $5 per round, so I knew that wouldn't last long, so I added $40 more. 11 hands, 55 bucks later - not one winning hand. So..I ask myself, how many hands will this machine not have a single pair of jacks or better? Well, 5 more hands, as I put $40 more in, leaving me with just $15 of the $15 they gave me, and $80 of my own. I then proceeded to have a string of 8 winners - 3 full houses, 3 straights and 2 flushes. Fortunately, that common sense voice I have, I didn't listen to it. I'd never, ever come across that behavior in a VP machine before.

So - all that to ask this: While I'm aware that random is random, each and every time, since we know that machines are "rigged" to pay back a certain percentage over time, have any of you come across that kind of extreme feast/famine behavior with a JoB video poker machine?

In a word: Yes.

They're not "rigged" to pay back a certain percentage. The listed payback percentage is based on optimal play of each of the 2,598,960 possible dealt hands and based on the pays of each specific winning hand. And yes, I've seen weird streaks like the one you mentioned. While picking off multipliers last night, I bricked three straight 10 play games. That's 30 losers in a row!

Thanks for your answer - and for trying to clarify.

And sharing your bricks. I don't feel so bad now.

But - just so I'm very, very clear - you're saying that the vp machines will pay or not pay whatever - and the payback percentage has nothing to do with anything other than how often and how well we choose our cards to hold?

I thought the gaming commission insisted that the machines pay back a minimum percentage - the only way I know they can ensure that is track over time how much goes in - and then start paying more to get the payback value back to the right side of the percentage.

I guess it just goes to show you that a million different rumors are floating around about how these machines work.

First, let me say that these "famine streaks" happen all the time.

I get slaughtered on video poker on a routine basis, and then I hit a 4 of a kind and I'm super happy and end up ahead, and some hands later I'm behind again and them bam another 4 of a kind and my balance is back to positive.

Video poker variance is high, if you're used to blackjack etc, the swings on video poker will give you quite a ride.


That said, now regarding video poker fairness.

Video poker are not required to "payback a percentage over time". I understand why you would think that, and I've been aware of this root issue for a while but there's nothing I could do about it.

Advantage Players like to call EV "long term result" when addressing non-AP audience. This is bad because that's not what EV means. Nor does EV mean what it says literally (expected value). End result is non APs would get very confused because the mathematicians are insisting the "long term results" must be a certain way and that is provable and illegal if done otherwise.

I know EV doens't have a name in common person English but that does not mean it should be brute translated.

So that said. If, say theoretically a machine has been paying out only 50% over the past 10 years even though it's a 99.6% machine, it is completely legal and fine as long as the machine has been DEALING in a fair manner. The results are whatever as long as the process is fair.

Quote: ukaserex

But - just so I'm very, very clear - you're saying that the vp machines will pay or not pay whatever - and the payback percentage has nothing to do with anything other than how often and how well we choose our cards to hold?

I thought the gaming commission insisted that the machines pay back a minimum percentage - the only way I know they can ensure that is track over time how much goes in - and then start paying more to get the payback value back to the right side of the percentage.

So to make sure you get a very very clear answer:

Gaming commissions enforce this on a EV basis, not a "what the actual result was" basis.

Quote: ukaserex

But - just so I'm very, very clear - you're saying that the vp machines will pay or not pay whatever - and the payback percentage has nothing to do with anything other than how often and how well we choose our cards to hold?

Theoretical payback percentage is based on the paytable (and the inherent chances of drawing each paying hand).

What fraction of that theoretical you get is based on how well you play your cards, assuming you get enough hands in to even out the luck of the draw.

Quote: Neutrino

So to make sure you get a very very clear answer:

Gaming commissions enforce this on a EV basis, not a "what the actual result was" basis.

Right. And ukaserex, the minimum payout (in Mississippi, that's 80%), only has to apply to the expectation of the machine. And in the case of video poker, only when you play optimally. The machine is just designed to spit out random, equally likely cards. It's the paytables and the players' skill that will determine how much the machine will keep longterm. As an experiment, I recently lost 50 hands in a row in Tunica one penny at a time because I intentionally tried to lose! However, unlike slots that mostly pay in the 80s to low 90s in return, in VP's case, the payouts for optimal play are almost always over 95%, sometimes even over 99%.

Never been to Biloxi, but the worst VP in Tunica pays back 94.18% optimally (8/5 Double Bonus at Sam's Town Tunica's bar). The same bar also has 9/6 JoB, which pays 99.54% optimally, one of the best games in Tunica. Lol

Quote: tringlomane

Right. And ukaserex, the minimum payout (in Mississippi, that's 80%), only has to apply to the expectation of the machine. And in the case of video poker, only when you play optimally. The machine is just designed to spit out random, equally likely cards. It's the paytables and the players' skill that will determine how much the machine will keep longterm.

Exactly right; the regulators do not enforce minimum bad-player paybacks, only minimum optimal-play paybacks. Nevada is 75%, but if you sit down at a blackjack table and always hit until you bust, your payback will be less than 10%.

Ironically, with skill-based gaming on the horizon, a game would be able to enforce a minimum bad-player payout. Instead of blackjack with a range between -93% and -0.5% edge, you might play Mario Kart with a range between -6% and -10% edge.