Calculating necessary VP trip bankroll

I will be playing 10 hours of 9/6 jacks or better at $1 denom ($5 with max coin single line)

I will then play 4 hours of 9/6 jacks of better at $1 denom ($15 with max coin single line)

I will play 800 hands per hour

I already used the wizard of odds bankroll size vs. risk of ruin chart, but how to calculate how much to bring for this trip to ensure that I last?

Quote: Avincow

I will be playing 10 hours of 9/6 jacks or better at $1 denom ($5 with max coin single line)

I will then play 4 hours of 9/6 jacks of better at $1 denom ($15 with max coin single line)

I will play 800 hands per hour

I already used the wizard of odds bankroll size vs. risk of ruin chart, but how to calculate how much to bring for this trip to ensure that I last?

That seems like a huge goal; I hope you do well with it.

Total SWAG, I think you're going to need 20K. You're talking 40K coin-in on the first, 48K coin-in on the second. My long-term experience has been ~ a 5:1 ratio coin-in to losses (on long sessions) during a losing swing, so I think you'll need to be about that deep to survive the volatility. I could easily be wrong.

Intuitively I think 20k is too high. From my own experience playing $1 for a while, I'd guess 3k would probably put you in the 1% ROR range over 8k hands. For the $15 single line over 3200 hands I'd probably say less than $4k. You can't just add the bankrolls either, but I'd say $5k would probably be good enough to have about a 1% ROR.

Fortunately I wrote a program that will do this sort of simulation, but only on the individual parts, so you'll have to combine them somehow. I get a 0.999% chance of losing $3000 when playing 8000 hands of $1 9/6 JoB over 500k trials. When I go to look for the 1% ROR value for the 3200 hands at $15 per hand, I find that $5025 will give you a 0.996% chance of going bust. The sum of these bankrolls is $8k but there's no reason to separate bankrolls and add them like that, so some value smaller than that will be where the 1% ROR for the overall trip lies. Perhaps in the $6500-$7000 range?

Looks like my intuition was right about the $5 bet but not the $15 or overall bankroll.

Link to thread with program: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/22274-how-to-calculate-odds-of-a-particular-return-or-worse-for-a-session/2/

My effort to guess on what's needed for the first 8000 hands:

to hit no royal flush while also hitting straight flush and quads only 65% as often as expected is about two standard deviation away to the bad. If that happens, you have an expected loss of $2020. So I'll say it only takes that much to get your risk of ruin to 5%.

If that seems reasonable, you can try the same thing for the $15 game. Adding them together will definitely give you less than 5% chance

Quote: TomG

If that happens, you have an expected loss of $2020. So I'll say it only takes that much to get your risk of ruin to 5%.

i gets using VP for Winners (2.5 minutes to calculate and wait)
and Gamblers Odds (about 5 seconds to calculate)
(programs they both calculate instead of a simulation)
about 13.63% for ruin for a $2020 stake
i provided a simple photo of this too before dinner


the values for 3k = .992%
that looks very close to a simulation result

2.5k = 4.47%
2.0k = 14.18%
wrong direction

off to dinner and dancing
the right direction
Sally

My intuition wasn't all that close. . .

Interesting that it only takes 100 bets to move from 1 in 7 to 1 in 20; then another 100 to move from 1 in 20 to 1 in 100. Would have thought it would take more than that