ssho88
ssho88
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July 14th, 2015 at 7:26:34 AM permalink
Anyone can help me on this :-

(1) $0.20/coin x 5 coins x 1 hand = $1.00
(2) $0.05/coin x 5 coins x 4 hands = $1.00

The variance for CASE (1) is 19.5, Return = 99.54% with perfect strategy

What is the variance for CASE (2) ?
chaunceyb3
chaunceyb3
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July 14th, 2015 at 8:27:52 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Anyone can help me on this :-

(1) $0.20/coin x 5 coins x 1 hand = $1.00
(2) $0.05/coin x 5 coins x 4 hands = $1.00

The variance for CASE (1) is 19.5, Return = 99.54% with perfect strategy

What is the variance for CASE (2) ?



The variance is about 25.
ssho88
ssho88
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July 14th, 2015 at 8:44:31 AM permalink
Quote: chaunceyb3

The variance is about 25.



Most people told me that the variance is lower but I disagree.

How to calculate it ? Simulation ?
DRich
DRich
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:10:03 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Most people told me that the variance is lower but I disagree.

How to calculate it ? Simulation ?



If you go to www.jazbo.com choose the "N-play Bankroll" on the left and it will explain it.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ssho88
ssho88
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:43:11 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

If you go to www.jazbo.com choose the "N-play Bankroll" on the left and it will explain it.



That 4 hands are not independent !
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:45:55 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

That 4 hands are not independent !


Spin Poker?
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rsactuary
rsactuary
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:46:19 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

That 4 hands are not independent !



How so?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

How so?


The only thing I can think of is my answer above.
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ssho88
ssho88
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:54:33 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

That 4 hands are not independent !



But in my example the total bet for case 1 and case 2 are the same. Have you consider this factor ?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:59:15 AM permalink
If drawn cards can reappear on subsequent hands, they are independent, As in 3/5/10 play. If they can't, as in Spin Poker, they are dependant. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
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rsactuary
rsactuary
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July 14th, 2015 at 10:13:56 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If drawn cards can reappear on subsequent hands, they are independent, As in 3/5/10 play. If they can't, as in Spin Poker, they are dependant. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.



Agree with this.

SSho88.. each hand in JoB (excluding Spin Poker) uses a fresh deck.
tongni
tongni
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July 14th, 2015 at 10:29:25 AM permalink
The variance is higher as expressed in credits, but lower as expressed in dollars. The hands have a correlation with each other - playing n play is different than playing n individual hands, because your result is heavily dependent on the initial starting hand. for example: you can't recieve a dealt royal on only one line, you get it on n lines or no lines.
RS
RS
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July 14th, 2015 at 10:33:45 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If drawn cards can reappear on subsequent hands, they are independent, As in 3/5/10 play. If they can't, as in Spin Poker, they are dependant. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.



They're dependent, since each hand (in 3/5/10 play) is drawn out from the same starting position [held cards].
Ibeatyouraces
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July 14th, 2015 at 10:43:55 AM permalink
Quote: RS

They're dependent, since each hand (in 3/5/10 play) is drawn out from the same starting position [held cards].


But not the drawn cards. The same card can be drawn in each hand which makes it independent. In SP, if a certain card is drawn in one column, it can't be in a later column.
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ssho88
ssho88
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July 14th, 2015 at 11:13:18 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Quote: RS

They're dependent, since each hand (in 3/5/10 play) is drawn out from the same starting position [held cards].


But not the drawn cards. The same card can be drawn in each hand which makes it independent. In SP, if a certain card is drawn in one column, it can't be in a later column.



The held cards are dependent and drawn cards are independent, so 4 hands are dependent.
The total betting amount is $1 for both case 1 and case 2, my question is which have lower variance ?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 14th, 2015 at 11:15:29 AM permalink
The amount in action has no bearing on whether the hands are dependent or not. Only whether the cards are replaced or not.
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rsactuary
rsactuary
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July 14th, 2015 at 11:31:16 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Quote: RS

They're dependent, since each hand (in 3/5/10 play) is drawn out from the same starting position [held cards].


But not the drawn cards. The same card can be drawn in each hand which makes it independent. In SP, if a certain card is drawn in one column, it can't be in a later column.



The held cards are dependent and drawn cards are independent, so 4 hands are dependent.
The total betting amount is $1 for both case 1 and case 2, my question is which have lower variance ?



You didn't indicate in your initial post that it was n-play. I understood your situation for (2) in your OP to be... insert 5 coins, play 1 hand, insert 5 coin, play 1 hand, etc.. 4 times in total.

Did you mean insert 20 coins and play 1 4 handed game?
RS
RS
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July 14th, 2015 at 12:08:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Quote: RS

They're dependent, since each hand (in 3/5/10 play) is drawn out from the same starting position [held cards].


But not the drawn cards. The same card can be drawn in each hand which makes it independent. In SP, if a certain card is drawn in one column, it can't be in a later column.



No. That doesn't make it independent. The variance in VP comes from the deal, not the draw.
beachbumbabs
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July 14th, 2015 at 6:53:55 PM permalink
highly doubt ss will be more specific.

OTOH, now I'm Jonesing to go play SP on videopoker.com.

PBBbbbttt. (HE's back!!!! Berkeley Breathed is re-starting Bloom County!) Yay!! So expect more aacks and Pbbbbttts from me.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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July 14th, 2015 at 7:14:31 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

highly doubt ss will be more specific.

OTOH, now I'm Jonesing to go play SP on videopoker.com.

PBBbbbttt. (HE's back!!!! Berkeley Breathed is re-starting Bloom County!) Yay!! So expect more aacks and Pbbbbttts from me.


Get "VP Pocket" from the app store.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
rsactuary
rsactuary
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:13:31 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

OTOH, now I'm Jonesing to go play SP on videopoker.com.



Can't stand spin poker... just me.
RS
RS
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July 14th, 2015 at 9:31:40 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Can't stand spin poker... just me.



I try not to play SP, but will if I have to.

Damn game is impossible to tell suits apart. :(

On the bright side, I have hit some pretty big hands on SP. perhaps I'll post one to the jackpot thread.
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