DDB Losing Odds
Quote: bigfoot66I know that this is one of those questions that forum members don't think very highly of, BUT it happened to me so I am curious. What are the odds of playing 40/10/6 DDB and losing 400 units (where 1 unit=5 coins) without hitting any paying hands higher than a full house? It's gotta be pretty slim right? like 1 in 20 or less likely?
So you are saying you lost 2000 coins or 500 on quarters. I think that is what you mean. I don't know the odds but I have done it a few times but I have also hit 4oak 3 times in 20 hands so that happens to.
Quote: GWAESo you are saying you lost 2000 coins or 500 on quarters. I think that is what you mean. I don't know the odds but I have done it a few times but I have also hit 4oak 3 times in 20 hands so that happens to.
Right, $500 on quarters without a 4oak or better
The probability of not getting 4 of a kind or better with perfect strategy, according to the Wizard's calculations, is about 399/400, and the return is about 80% per hand (i.e. you lose 1/5 of a unit) when this happens. This means you should have had 2000 hands in your streak; the chance of not getting 4 of a kind or better in 2000 hands is about 1 in 150.
Quote: ThatDonGuySomebody who has serious ideas about how to calculate this sort of thing look this over and tell me how accurate my reasoning is:
The probability of not getting 4 of a kind or better with perfect strategy, according to the Wizard's calculations, is about 399/400, and the return is about 80% per hand (i.e. you lose 1/5 of a unit) when this happens. This means you should have had 2000 hands in your streak; the chance of not getting 4 of a kind or better in 2000 hands is about 1 in 150.
Makes sense. Thanks! After the -$500 streak I did hit dueces w/kicker and then got a dealt royal a dozen hands later.
