bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
• Posts: 1580
June 6th, 2015 at 2:08:06 PM permalink
I know that this is one of those questions that forum members don't think very highly of, BUT it happened to me so I am curious. What are the odds of playing 40/10/6 DDB and losing 400 units (where 1 unit=5 coins) without hitting any paying hands higher than a full house? It's gotta be pretty slim right? like 1 in 20 or less likely?
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GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 9854
June 6th, 2015 at 3:20:24 PM permalink
Quote: bigfoot66

I know that this is one of those questions that forum members don't think very highly of, BUT it happened to me so I am curious. What are the odds of playing 40/10/6 DDB and losing 400 units (where 1 unit=5 coins) without hitting any paying hands higher than a full house? It's gotta be pretty slim right? like 1 in 20 or less likely?

So you are saying you lost 2000 coins or 500 on quarters. I think that is what you mean. I don't know the odds but I have done it a few times but I have also hit 4oak 3 times in 20 hands so that happens to.
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bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
• Posts: 1580
June 6th, 2015 at 5:19:41 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

So you are saying you lost 2000 coins or 500 on quarters. I think that is what you mean. I don't know the odds but I have done it a few times but I have also hit 4oak 3 times in 20 hands so that happens to.

Right, \$500 on quarters without a 4oak or better
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ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4622
June 6th, 2015 at 5:57:21 PM permalink
Somebody who has serious ideas about how to calculate this sort of thing look this over and tell me how accurate my reasoning is:

The probability of not getting 4 of a kind or better with perfect strategy, according to the Wizard's calculations, is about 399/400, and the return is about 80% per hand (i.e. you lose 1/5 of a unit) when this happens. This means you should have had 2000 hands in your streak; the chance of not getting 4 of a kind or better in 2000 hands is about 1 in 150.
bigfoot66
Joined: Feb 5, 2010
• Posts: 1580
June 6th, 2015 at 9:42:26 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Somebody who has serious ideas about how to calculate this sort of thing look this over and tell me how accurate my reasoning is:

The probability of not getting 4 of a kind or better with perfect strategy, according to the Wizard's calculations, is about 399/400, and the return is about 80% per hand (i.e. you lose 1/5 of a unit) when this happens. This means you should have had 2000 hands in your streak; the chance of not getting 4 of a kind or better in 2000 hands is about 1 in 150.

Makes sense. Thanks! After the -\$500 streak I did hit dueces w/kicker and then got a dealt royal a dozen hands later.
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