GWAE
GWAE
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September 5th, 2014 at 3:37:39 AM permalink
I want to get through $5000 coin in with the lowest variance possible. I will have about 7 hours to get it done so $0.01 1 line will not work. We do not have the greatest of games so all VP are around 97%. I don't know all of the paytables off the top of my head but for sake of argument lets assume that they are all the same return at 97.3. I have a BR of $1000 and comfortable with a bet up to $5 a hand.

My options:

multi line 1-100 lines at $0.01-$0.25 denom.
single line at $0.25-$5.00
STP 3 line, $0.05-$0.25
QQ 3 line, $0.05-$0.25
UX 3-10 line, $0.05-$5.00
Wheel poker deluxe 3-5 line, $0.05-$0.25

I am trying to get through $5000 coin in with as accurate of expected loss as possible. What should be my game plan?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
RS
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September 5th, 2014 at 4:09:37 AM permalink
The least variance (obviously) comes from $0.01 single line. The more lines you play at the same denomination increases variance. For example, playing $0.05 single line ($0.25 a pull) has lower variance than $0.05 three-line ($0.75/pull). However, playing $0.01 5 line ($0.25/pull) has lower variance than $0.05 single line.

Games like STP, QQ, Ultimate X, and Wheel poker have higher variance than their normal 3/5/10 line games. However, you'll get a higher return if you play something, like for example, UTX 6/5 Bonus Poker than playing a normal 6/5 Bonus Poker game (not that 6/5 BP or 6/5 UTX BP has a good return).

QQ and UTX has weird strategies that you'd likely have to learn.


IMO, your best bet is going to be a multi-line game without the "extra" stuff (no QQ, STP, wheel poker, etc.).


You should be able to get $5K coin in on 100-line $0.01 denom ($5/pull) within 7 hours.
GWAE
GWAE
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September 5th, 2014 at 5:13:59 AM permalink
Quote: RS

The least variance (obviously) comes from $0.01 single line. The more lines you play at the same denomination increases variance. For example, playing $0.05 single line ($0.25 a pull) has lower variance than $0.05 three-line ($0.75/pull). However, playing $0.01 5 line ($0.25/pull) has lower variance than $0.05 single line.

Games like STP, QQ, Ultimate X, and Wheel poker have higher variance than their normal 3/5/10 line games. However, you'll get a higher return if you play something, like for example, UTX 6/5 Bonus Poker than playing a normal 6/5 Bonus Poker game (not that 6/5 BP or 6/5 UTX BP has a good return).

QQ and UTX has weird strategies that you'd likely have to learn.


IMO, your best bet is going to be a multi-line game without the "extra" stuff (no QQ, STP, wheel poker, etc.).


You should be able to get $5K coin in on 100-line $0.01 denom ($5/pull) within 7 hours.



That was my basic though before I added in all the extra games.

I guess I was wondering, If I want to play $2.50 a spin and I better off playing $0.50 single line, or 50 line for pennies, or somewhere in between? I think from what you said, my variance would be lower playing the 50 line.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
RS
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September 5th, 2014 at 5:53:19 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Quote: RS

The least variance (obviously) comes from $0.01 single line. The more lines you play at the same denomination increases variance. For example, playing $0.05 single line ($0.25 a pull) has lower variance than $0.05 three-line ($0.75/pull). However, playing $0.01 5 line ($0.25/pull) has lower variance than $0.05 single line.

Games like STP, QQ, Ultimate X, and Wheel poker have higher variance than their normal 3/5/10 line games. However, you'll get a higher return if you play something, like for example, UTX 6/5 Bonus Poker than playing a normal 6/5 Bonus Poker game (not that 6/5 BP or 6/5 UTX BP has a good return).

QQ and UTX has weird strategies that you'd likely have to learn.


IMO, your best bet is going to be a multi-line game without the "extra" stuff (no QQ, STP, wheel poker, etc.).


You should be able to get $5K coin in on 100-line $0.01 denom ($5/pull) within 7 hours.



That was my basic though before I added in all the extra games.

I guess I was wondering, If I want to play $2.50 a spin and I better off playing $0.50 single line, or 50 line for pennies, or somewhere in between? I think from what you said, my variance would be lower playing the 50 line.



Yes, 50 line will have less variance.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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September 5th, 2014 at 9:58:05 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I want to get through $5000 coin in with the lowest variance possible. I will have about 7 hours to get it done so $0.01 1 line will not work. We do not have the greatest of games so all VP are around 97%. I don't know all of the paytables off the top of my head but for sake of argument lets assume that they are all the same return at 97.3. I have a BR of $1000 and comfortable with a bet up to $5 a hand.

My options:

multi line 1-100 lines at $0.01-$0.25 denom.
single line at $0.25-$5.00
STP 3 line, $0.05-$0.25
QQ 3 line, $0.05-$0.25
UX 3-10 line, $0.05-$5.00
Wheel poker deluxe 3-5 line, $0.05-$0.25

I am trying to get through $5000 coin in with as accurate of expected loss as possible. What should be my game plan?



There seems to be a little bit of confusion on this thread. The key is that you want to minimize total variance over all the bets to get you to $5000 coin-in (not variance per hand).

100-line 1c is the clear winner, and it's not close.

Single-line 1c has lower variance per deal, but that's just because you are betting less. It has higher variance per amount bet, which is what we are concerned about.

So, pick the lowest variance game they have (probably JoB) and play 1000 deals of 100-line, 1c denom.

Technically you could get lower variance by betting 1 credit per hand instead of 5, but the EV loss is probably not worth it.

What are they giving you in exchange for this $5000 coin-in? Even if you can find a 97% machine at the 1c level, your expected loss is $150. And royals are $40 apiece so how well you do will really depend on how well you run on royals.
tongni
tongni
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September 8th, 2014 at 12:25:06 AM permalink
Not very real world to assume all pay tables pay 97.3%. Post the actual games you would be playing with paytables and the decision will be usually be clear.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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September 8th, 2014 at 12:53:53 AM permalink
Seven hours? Intriguing. Do they even have a clue Bob Dancer Jr. is going to be robbing the joint? lol
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djatc
djatc
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September 8th, 2014 at 3:50:14 AM permalink
I don't know what to tell you but ask me about dropping 20%+ playing 5k coin in on quarters/50c/1 penny 100 line.
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