Theoratical Coin-In

What's the mathematical formula for calculating theoratical coin in?

For example, if I put in $100 and play a $0.25 ($1.25 max bet) on a 99.17% return Bonus Poker game perfectly, how many hands, theoretically, will I play till I lose the $100?

Is it just:

(1) per hand loss $1.25*.83% =$0.010375.
(2) 100/0.010375= 9638.55 hands.
(3) 96.38.55 *$1.25 = $12048.19 coin-in ?

Quote: debitncredit

What's the mathematical formula for calculating theoratical coin in?

For example, if I put in $100 and play a $0.25 ($1.25 max bet) on a 99.17% return Bonus Poker game perfectly, how many hands, theoretically, will I play till I lose the $100?

Is it just:

(1) per hand loss $1.25*.83% =$0.010375.
(2) 100/0.010375= 9638.55 hands.
(3) 96.38.55 *$1.25 = $12048.19 coin-in ?

Yup that's it.

You are multiplying, then dividing by, the max bet though, so you can simplify it (bet amount is not relevant to the formula). It's just $100/0.0083

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Yup that's it.

You are multiplying, then dividing by, the max bet though, so you can simplify it (bet amount is not relevant to the formula). It's just $100/0.0083

Ah. Indeed. Thanks!

Quote: debitncredit

Ah. Indeed.

The average number of hands I get is about
2200
and that comes right from the distribution at 64.04% ruin

I did this real fast (did not check in VP for winners) so I may be off a few hands too (but not by 10,000)

I show a 91.33% chance of busting an 80 unit bankroll at 12,000 hands played

Think!

The distribution for any VP game is not even close to being a normal one,
meaning that normal math formulas for vp do just not come close to a correct answer
until one gets out past 100k hands and beyond for many others

3k hands: 72.38%
6k hands: 85.07%

I know too hard
12,000
no
Sally

Quote: mustangsally

The average number of hands I get is about
2200

Most people use the word "average" to mean "arithmetic mean".

I have no idea what definition you are using.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

A few months back, I ran through $400 on a single line $1, 9/6 JoB game without much as even a full house. I don't think I played more than 700 hands. It went fast.

It can be feast or famine with video poker. Last time I was at NYNY, they have quarter 99.54 JOB machines near hotel checkin. Dumped 200 in, lasted for about a quick hr. On the flip side, was playing at the Downtown Freemont, stick in a 100 dollar bill, 99.54 Job playing a while and suddenly realize its a machine that pays out quarters. I'm thinking damm, dont want cash out a ton of quartes so I try to play down the 100 and cant because hitting great hands. After I get tired of playing, grit my teeth, cash out and listen to 400 quarters dropping.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Most people use the word "average" to mean "arithmetic mean".

I have no idea what definition you are using.

same
I do not have my computer that has a sim program to run this (it is on life support and needs to go to the shop)

but from past workings on this idea


I arrived at my answer using the median
I show 1429 hands to give a 50/50 chance of busting out

for the mean I use for VP right now without a simulation in front of me is median/65%
or 1429*100 / 65 and that gives me 2,198.5

I would guess anyone could run a sim before me and get the distribution and the mean and median too.

I actually have some one willing to pay me to figure all this out
and that might be worth it
I would enjoy to be paid for it, as I love to spend money,

or I think I have a Markov chain set up already for VP but it would need some adjusting
I get such a kick out of setting up and solving a Markov chain, who would have thought that!

so opinions abound

Sally

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

A few months back, I ran through $400 on a single line $1, 9/6 JoB game without much as even a full house. I don't think I played more than 700 hands. It went fast.

not unusual at all in my opinion

I show 16.53% chance of this happening or about 1 in 6
80 unit bankroll (400/5)

of course most VP players have no clue to actual ruin probabilities and just really go by their experience
and that is fine too

That will not at all work for me as 7 Royals in 30k hands played makes me think I am the Queen of Video Poker
and I just may bee

Sally

Quote: mustangsally

same
I do not have my computer that has a sim program to run this (it is on life support and needs to go to the shop)

But, why would you run a simulation to get an estimate for a problem that can be solved exactly with simple arithmetic? He was only asking for an expectation.

The house edge is 0.83%. Therefore the mean number of hands to bust out with 80 bets is 80 / 0.83% = about 9638.55

Of course this is just an average and due to the huge skew the median will be much (much much) lower than this, but, again, he only asked for an expectation.

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