HD71
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May 15th, 2014 at 8:30:22 AM permalink
Quick question. I am playing a new game Power Quads 16/10 NSU. I am playing the NSU correctly and doing ok. The question is the strategy any different because of the bonus. Bonus is a 1000 coin payout when you get all 13 natural 4OK's
AxelWolf
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May 15th, 2014 at 9:42:33 AM permalink
Quote: HD71

Quick question. I am playing a new game Power Quads 16/10 NSU. I am playing the NSU correctly and doing ok. The question is the strategy any different because of the bonus. Bonus is a 1000 coin payout when you get all 13 natural 4OK's

It would be better to make changes at some point. Is there cash back on the card? Bounce back? other promos? This could be a good play.

What denomination?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
HD71
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May 16th, 2014 at 2:59:57 PM permalink
$.25, $.50 $1.00 & $2.00 bonus is a direct payout on the machine or by hand in the larger denominations.
DRich
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May 16th, 2014 at 3:28:17 PM permalink
Quote: HD71

Quick question. I am playing a new game Power Quads 16/10 NSU. I am playing the NSU correctly and doing ok. The question is the strategy any different because of the bonus. Bonus is a 1000 coin payout when you get all 13 natural 4OK's



There might be changes when holding two pair where you would go for the single pair if you still needed that 4ofK.

It takes a long time to hit all naturals 4k's on Deuces games. One time that I did it the 2's was the last one I needed. What are the odds of that?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
GWAE
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May 16th, 2014 at 6:39:12 PM permalink
I have never seen such a machine. Is this another vulturable game?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
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May 16th, 2014 at 6:44:54 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I have never seen such a machine. Is this another vulturable game?

not unless you can buy someones advanced card.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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May 16th, 2014 at 6:49:00 PM permalink
Quote: HD71

$.25, $.50 $1.00 & $2.00 bonus is a direct payout on the machine or by hand in the larger denominations.

No cash back on the regular card or the system itself? Bounce back?

Multi line?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
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May 16th, 2014 at 8:06:08 PM permalink
You should definitely break two pair if a pair will give you the last quad.

Not sure how to do exactly do the math on anything before the last quad though.
AxelWolf
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May 16th, 2014 at 8:41:33 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You should definitely break two pair if a pair will give you the last quad.

Not sure how to do exactly do the math on anything before the last quad though.

I didn't run it, but probably a lot sooner than that. isn't he playing Deuces wild?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
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May 16th, 2014 at 8:48:05 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I didn't run it, but probably a lot sooner than that. isn't he playing Deuces wild?



Yeah NSUD.
HD71
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May 16th, 2014 at 10:19:59 PM permalink
I have completed the bonus 4 times so far average is 14,135 hands to do so playing strict NSU strategy. High is 18,760 low is 7361 hands. 4 deuces 9 times and 2 Royals.
GWAE
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May 17th, 2014 at 6:00:38 AM permalink
So I still don't understand. Is this an actual game that keeps track of the 4oaks or is it a casino promotion where you have to get a slot attendant to sign off on each one?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
vetsen
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May 17th, 2014 at 6:03:17 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

So I still don't understand. Is this an actual game that keeps track of the 4oaks or is it a casino promotion where you have to get a slot attendant to sign off on each one?



You log in and the machine keeps track.

http://www.igt.com/us-en/games/game-page.aspx?type_id=8756&showtab=1
DRich
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May 17th, 2014 at 7:18:55 AM permalink
Quote: HD71

I have completed the bonus 4 times so far average is 14,135 hands to do so playing strict NSU strategy. High is 18,760 low is 7361 hands. 4 deuces 9 times and 2 Royals.



Wow, those numbers are much lower than I would have expected on Deuces.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 8:37:30 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Wow, those numbers are much lower than I would have expected on Deuces.


Between the top two paylines (Natural Royal, Four Deuces) he is 1243.4 coins ahead of expectations.
GWAE
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May 17th, 2014 at 12:31:22 PM permalink
Quote: vetsen

You log in and the machine keeps track.

http://www.igt.com/us-en/games/game-page.aspx?type_id=8756&showtab=1




ahh I like that. To bad that doesn't exist around here. We used to have a few slot games that you could log into like Star Trek but they have all disappeared.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 12:34:40 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Yeah NSUD.

So 2 pair breaks really don't have to be that high then. What am I missing?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 12:37:32 PM permalink
Quote: HD71

I have completed the bonus 4 times so far average is 14,135 hands to do so playing strict NSU strategy. High is 18,760 low is 7361 hands. 4 deuces 9 times and 2 Royals.

Sounds like a fun play.

Still wondering if you get cash back, bounce back and other casino perks on top of this, where you are playing. If you have completed the bingo 4 times already, this sounds like a multi line, would I be correct?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
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May 17th, 2014 at 12:58:32 PM permalink
Quote: JB

Between the top two paylines (Natural Royal, Four Deuces) he is 1243.4 coins ahead of expectations.



But how ahead of expectations is he ahead on Power Quad cycles? If you consider quads equally likely, a cycle takes about 17,500 hands for JoB. Shouldn't deuces take longer to finish on average?

And I wonder if he should be breaking 2 pair earlier than the last quad. I'm thinking probably, but I dunno where the cutoff is.

Quote: AxelWolf

Sounds like a fun play.

Still wondering if you get cash back, bounce back and other casino perks on top of this, where you are playing. If you have completed the bingo 4 times already, this sounds like a multi line, would I be correct?



The media sheet makes it look like it's just single line. And claims the highest payback variant available is 101.42%. A 1000 credit bonus probably adds a little over 1% to the return.

http://media.igt.com/marketing/PromotionalLiterature/GamePromoLit_1FC9D-23864.pdf
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 1:05:27 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

But how ahead of expectations is he ahead on Power Quad cycles?


I have no idea.

Quote: tringlomane

If you consider quads equally likely, a cycle takes about 17,500 hands for JoB. Shouldn't deuces take longer to finish on average?


Presumably, since quad deuces should occur more often than the other ranks.

Figuring out the average number of hands to complete the circuit would be an interesting challenge.
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 1:05:32 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

But how ahead of expectations is he ahead on Power Quad cycles? If you consider quads equally likely, a cycle takes about 17,500 hands for JoB. Shouldn't deuces take longer to finish on average?

And I wonder if he should be breaking 2 pair earlier than the last quad. I'm thinking probably, but I dunno where the cutoff is.



The media sheet makes it look like it's just single line. And claims the highest payback variant available is 101.42%. A 1000 credit bonus probably adds a little over 1% to the return.

http://media.igt.com/marketing/PromotionalLiterature/GamePromoLit_1FC9D-23864.pdf

I know they had some 9/6 jacks dollars.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 1:10:34 PM permalink
Quote: JB

I have no idea.


Presumably, since quad deuces should occur more often than the other ranks.

Figuring out the average number of hands to complete the circuit would be an interesting challenge.

This type of promotion comes up quite a bit. I have never got a definitive answer how long it takes to complete something like this, obviously it will change depending on how much of a bonus you get and how aggressive you go for it.

Whats a good approximate number of hands given some normal changes.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
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May 17th, 2014 at 1:10:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I know they had some 9/6 jacks dollars.



How big was the "bonus"?

Unfortunately that's adjustable too. I have heard it can also be 500 or 2000 credits.
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 1:40:25 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

How big was the "bonus"?

Unfortunately that's adjustable too. I have heard it can also be 500 or 2000 credits.

1k
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:01:25 PM permalink
I am showing that under the following circumstances:

- a 1000-credit bonus for completing a cycle
- no strategy adjustments whatsoever
- no overlap between cycles (i.e. hitting Four Kings a second time in the current cycle does not apply Four Kings toward the next cycle)

...that 9/6 Jacks or Better returns about 100.84%. Does anyone else agree or disagree with this approximate figure? (I determined the average number of hands per cycle by simulation.) The average number of hands per cycle I simulated was about 15,445.

I'll check NSUD next to see what it looks like.


And here is a puzzler in the meantime: with optimal 9/6 Jacks or Better strategy, if you have Four of a Kind after the draw, what rank are you most likely to have four of?
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:11:57 PM permalink
Quote: JB

I am showing that under the following circumstances:

- a 1000-credit bonus for completing a cycle
- no strategy adjustments whatsoever
- no overlap between cycles (i.e. hitting Four Kings a second time in the current cycle does not apply Four Kings toward the next cycle)

...that 9/6 Jacks or Better returns about 100.84%. Does anyone else agree or disagree with this approximate figure? (I determined the average number of hands per cycle by simulation.) The average number of hands per cycle I simulated was about 15,445.

I'll check NSUD next to see what it looks like.


And here is a puzzler in the meantime: with optimal 9/6 Jacks or Better strategy, if you have Four of a Kind after the draw, what rank are you most likely to have four of?

I doubt I understand the question but, I would think you have more 4 jacks then any other 4 of a kind
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:15:47 PM permalink
Quote: JB

I am showing that under the following circumstances:

- a 1000-credit bonus for completing a cycle
- no strategy adjustments whatsoever
- no overlap between cycles (i.e. hitting Four Kings a second time in the current cycle does not apply Four Kings toward the next cycle)

...that 9/6 Jacks or Better returns about 100.84%. Does anyone else agree or disagree with this approximate figure? (I determined the average number of hands per cycle by simulation.) The average number of hands per cycle I simulated was about 15,445.

I'll check NSUD next to see what it looks like.


And here is a puzzler in the meantime: with optimal 9/6 Jacks or Better strategy, if you have Four of a Kind after the draw, what rank are you most likely to have four of?



15,445? It's really that low? Because if you take the average occurrence of quads in JoB and and apply the "coupon collector's problem" to it, you get 17,499 hands on average. I would be surprised it is that low slash the estimate I made was that bad. How many sims is this over so far?

And I would think the answer is Jacks.
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:21:30 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

15,445? It's really that low? Because if you take the average occurrence of quads in JoB and and apply the "coupon collector's problem" to it, you get 17,499 hands on average. I would be surprised it is that low slash the estimate I made was that bad. How many sims is this over so far?


I stopped it shortly after 1.5 billion hands. The problem is, the 13 quads are not equally likely; Aces, Kings, Queens, and Jacks are more likely because they are high cards. I think that explains why it's a little lower than just using the average quad.

Quote: tringlomane

And I would think the answer is Jacks.


The answer was surprising (it is not Jacks). However, I think I can explain why it is the rank that it is, which I will disclose soon. Before I do, here's the opposite question, what rank are you least likely to have four of?
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:29:10 PM permalink
Quote: JB

I stopped it shortly after 1.5 billion hands. The problem is, the 13 quads are not equally likely; Aces, Kings, Queens, and Jacks are more likely because they are high cards. I think that explains why it's a little lower than just using the average quad.


The answer was surprising (it is not Jacks). However, I think I can explain why it is the rank that it is, which I will disclose soon. Before I do, here's the opposite question, what rank are you least likely to have four of?

I think I understand why not jacks. I guess its because you are holding other high cards and 10s along with the jacks. example you don't hold A 10 and you just hold the ace. Could be 10's

If you said aces it would surprise me. Kings would be my guess after 10's

If its a non high card combination like 99 then it would have to tie other hands.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
tringlomane
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:32:27 PM permalink
Quote: JB

I stopped it shortly after 1.5 billion hands. The problem is, the 13 quads are not equally likely; Aces, Kings, Queens, and Jacks are more likely because they are high cards. I think that explains why it's a little lower than just using the average quad.


The answer was surprising (it is not Jacks). However, I think I can explain why it is the rank that it is, which I will disclose soon. Before I do, here's the opposite question, what rank are you least likely to have four of?



Yeah, I guess having an unbalanced probability of hitting quads speeds up the cycle. I wasn't thinking it would help that much though.

The least likely? Ugh I dunno 6s? I would think 2s-10s would be fairly equal regardless.

Axel is right about the ten thing, so probably Aces Kings is most likely, and Tens are least likely?

I'm dumb.
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:33:26 PM permalink
Okay, so the first step was to have separate paylines for each of the 13 quads, but of course all paying the same. Here are the results:

Hand Prize Combinations Probability Return Odds 1 in
Royal Flush 800 41,126,022 0.000025 0.019807 40,390.5475
Straight Flush 50 181,573,608 0.000109 0.005465 9,148.3700
Four As 25 325,021,133 0.000196 0.004892 5,110.7524
Four Ks 25 325,377,818 0.000196 0.004897 5,105.1499
Four Qs 25 324,864,183 0.000196 0.004889 5,113.2216
Four Js 25 323,906,057 0.000195 0.004875 5,128.3467
Four 10s 25 289,307,311 0.000174 0.004354 5,741.6542
Four 9s 25 291,935,557 0.000176 0.004394 5,689.9631
Four 8s 25 292,010,721 0.000176 0.004395 5,688.4985
Four 7s 25 292,068,771 0.000176 0.004396 5,687.3679
Four 6s 25 292,071,824 0.000176 0.004396 5,687.3084
Four 5s 25 292,074,662 0.000176 0.004396 5,687.2532
Four 4s 25 292,002,723 0.000176 0.004395 5,688.6543
Four 3s 25 291,931,429 0.000176 0.004394 5,690.0435
Four 2s 25 291,858,458 0.000176 0.004393 5,691.4662
Full House 9 19,122,956,883 0.011512 0.103610 86.8643
Flush 6 18,296,232,180 0.011015 0.066087 90.7893
Straight 4 18,653,130,482 0.011229 0.044917 89.0522
Three of a Kind 3 123,666,922,527 0.074449 0.223346 13.4321
Two Pair 2 214,745,513,679 0.129279 0.258558 7.7352
Jacks or Better 1 356,447,740,914 0.214585 0.214585 4.6602
All Other 0 906,022,916,158 0.545435 0.000000 1.8334
Totals 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 0.995439


So if you have a Four of a Kind after the draw:

1) You are most likely to have Four Kings

and

2) You are least likely to have Four Tens

I think the reason why Kings are most likely is because with hands such as A-K-J-2-4 unsuited, you hold KJ and might get the other three on the draw, and you do the same with A-K-Q-x-y, therefore if you are holding two high cards, it is slightly more likely that one of them is a King.

I think the reason why Tens are least likely is because they are a low card, combined with the fact that you do not hold 10-10 with K-Q-J-10-10, but you do hold 2s thru 9s when there is 4 to an outside straight.
AxelWolf
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May 17th, 2014 at 2:42:34 PM permalink
Quote: JB

Okay, so the first step was to have separate paylines for each of the 13 quads, but of course all paying the same. Here are the results:

Hand Prize Combinations Probability Return Odds 1 in
Royal Flush 800 41,126,022 0.000025 0.019807 40,390.5475
Straight Flush 50 181,573,608 0.000109 0.005465 9,148.3700
Four As 25 325,021,133 0.000196 0.004892 5,110.7524
Four Ks 25 325,377,818 0.000196 0.004897 5,105.1499
Four Qs 25 324,864,183 0.000196 0.004889 5,113.2216
Four Js 25 323,906,057 0.000195 0.004875 5,128.3467
Four 10s 25 289,307,311 0.000174 0.004354 5,741.6542
Four 9s 25 291,935,557 0.000176 0.004394 5,689.9631
Four 8s 25 292,010,721 0.000176 0.004395 5,688.4985
Four 7s 25 292,068,771 0.000176 0.004396 5,687.3679
Four 6s 25 292,071,824 0.000176 0.004396 5,687.3084
Four 5s 25 292,074,662 0.000176 0.004396 5,687.2532
Four 4s 25 292,002,723 0.000176 0.004395 5,688.6543
Four 3s 25 291,931,429 0.000176 0.004394 5,690.0435
Four 2s 25 291,858,458 0.000176 0.004393 5,691.4662
Full House 9 19,122,956,883 0.011512 0.103610 86.8643
Flush 6 18,296,232,180 0.011015 0.066087 90.7893
Straight 4 18,653,130,482 0.011229 0.044917 89.0522
Three of a Kind 3 123,666,922,527 0.074449 0.223346 13.4321
Two Pair 2 214,745,513,679 0.129279 0.258558 7.7352
Jacks or Better 1 356,447,740,914 0.214585 0.214585 4.6602
All Other 0 906,022,916,158 0.545435 0.000000 1.8334
Totals 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 0.995439


So if you have a Four of a Kind after the draw:

1) You are most likely to have Four Kings

and

2) You are least likely to have Four Tens

I think the reason why Kings are most likely is because with hands such as A-K-J-2-4 unsuited, you hold KJ and might get the other three on the draw, and you do the same with A-K-Q-x-y, therefore if you are holding two high cards, one of them is most likely a King.

I think the reason why Tens are least likely is because they are a low card, combined with the fact that you do not hold 10-10 with K-Q-J-10-10, but you do hold 2s thru 9s when there is 4 to an outside straight.

this is good to know there are some places that lock you in to your favorite 4 of a kind, assuming they only have JOB as an option of something that's playable. They had machines that would also let you select your bonus 4 of a kind.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 3:17:49 PM permalink
Here is the table for NSUD with separate paylines for natural Four of a Kinds:

Hand Prize Combinations Probability Return Odds 1 in
Natural Royal 800 38,224,692 0.000023 0.018409 43,456.2702
Five As with One Deuce 16 45,564,909 0.000027 0.000439 36,455.7415
Five Ks with One Deuce 16 45,547,541 0.000027 0.000439 36,469.6426
Five Qs with One Deuce 16 45,485,905 0.000027 0.000438 36,519.0611
Five Js with One Deuce 16 45,400,493 0.000027 0.000437 36,587.7644
Five 10s with One Deuce 16 45,317,693 0.000027 0.000437 36,654.6140
Five 9s with One Deuce 16 45,462,997 0.000027 0.000438 36,537.4624
Five 8s with One Deuce 16 45,477,389 0.000027 0.000438 36,525.8996
Five 7s with One Deuce 16 45,495,545 0.000027 0.000438 36,511.3231
Five 6s with One Deuce 16 45,582,077 0.000027 0.000439 36,442.0108
Five 5s with One Deuce 16 45,691,301 0.000028 0.000440 36,354.8970
Five 4s with One Deuce 16 45,753,357 0.000028 0.000441 36,305.5883
Five 3s with One Deuce 16 45,791,337 0.000028 0.000441 36,275.4759
Four As 4 212,618,873 0.000128 0.000512 7,812.5828
Four Ks 4 215,037,963 0.000129 0.000518 7,724.6944
Four Qs 4 215,366,414 0.000130 0.000519 7,712.9136
Four Js 4 214,954,660 0.000129 0.000518 7,727.6880
Four 10s 4 214,722,399 0.000129 0.000517 7,736.0469
Four 9s 4 214,916,709 0.000129 0.000518 7,729.0526
Four 8s 4 215,028,522 0.000129 0.000518 7,725.0335
Four 7s 4 215,157,168 0.000130 0.000518 7,720.4146
Four 6s 4 215,440,694 0.000130 0.000519 7,710.2543
Four 5s 4 215,740,787 0.000130 0.000520 7,699.5295
Four 4s 4 216,040,060 0.000130 0.000520 7,688.8636
Four 3s 4 215,815,030 0.000130 0.000520 7,696.8807
Four 2s 200 310,144,767 0.000187 0.037342 5,355.8941
Wild Royal 25 3,167,246,872 0.001907 0.047668 524.4626
Five of a Kind 16 4,616,865,594 0.002779 0.044470 359.7901
Straight Flush 10 8,532,702,998 0.005137 0.051368 194.6748
Four of a Kind 4 98,809,268,180 0.059484 0.237937 16.8112
Full House 4 43,380,578,592 0.026116 0.104462 38.2914
Flush 3 34,489,242,338 0.020763 0.062289 48.1629
Straight 2 95,240,456,400 0.057336 0.114671 17.4411
Three of a Kind 1 443,825,967,643 0.267188 0.267188 3.7427
All Other 0 925,564,435,201 0.557199 0.000000 1.7947
Totals 1,661,102,543,100 1.000000 0.997283 1.0000

And here are the combined totals for each rank:

Hand Combinations Probability Odds 1 in
As 258,183,782 0.000155 6,433.7989
Ks 260,585,504 0.000157 6,374.5010
Qs 260,852,319 0.000157 6,367.9807
Js 260,355,153 0.000157 6,380.1408
10s 260,040,092 0.000157 6,387.8709
9s 260,379,706 0.000157 6,379.5392
8s 260,505,911 0.000157 6,376.4486
7s 260,652,713 0.000157 6,372.8573
6s 261,022,771 0.000157 6,363.8223
5s 261,432,088 0.000157 6,353.8587
4s 261,793,417 0.000158 6,345.0890
3s 261,606,367 0.000157 6,349.6258
2s 310,144,767 0.000187 5,355.8941
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 4:47:55 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

15,445? It's really that low? Because if you take the average occurrence of quads in JoB and and apply the "coupon collector's problem" to it, you get 17,499 hands on average.


There was likely something wrong with my simulator since I threw it together so quickly; when I used it for NSUD the average number of hands was way too high. So I wrote a program to calculate the true result instead.

For 9/6 Jacks or Better, I calculate an average cycle length of 109088134883252/6227020800 ≈ 17518.5 hands, and therefore the following returns (without adjusting the strategy):

Bonus Return
500 coins 100.1147%
1,000 coins 100.6856%
2,000 coins 101.8272%


For NSUD, I calculate an average cycle length of 124524473467705/6227020800 ≈ 19997.4 hands and therefore the following returns (without adjusting the strategy):

Bonus Return
500 coins 100.2284%
1,000 coins 100.7284%
2,000 coins 101.7286%

I can't help but feel like I did something wrong since the returns seem so generous. I invite others to check my math and confirm or dispute my results.
Wizard
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May 17th, 2014 at 6:45:04 PM permalink
Sorry for the late arrival. This is the kind of thread I like.

Based on just a little work I can say that an approximate return of 9-6 Jacks is 100.6829%. This is based on no strategy deviations and every four of a kind being equally likely. The return would go down because each four of a kind is not equally likely, but up with strategy deviations.

That is all for now. Let me work at it some more. What makes this hard is there are 13!=6227020800 possible orders the four of a kinds could come in. It may be that a simulation is the only practical solution.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
JB
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May 17th, 2014 at 6:48:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What makes this hard is there are 13!=6227020800 possible orders the four of a kinds could come in. It may be that a simulation is the only practical solution.


I was able to calculate what I believe is the correct result with a program that iterated through all 13! permutations. It took about 4 or 5 minutes to complete per game. Here were my results:

9/6 Jacks or Better: 109088134883252/6227020800 or about 17518.5
NSU Deuces Wild: 124524473467705/6227020800 or about 19997.4
Wizard
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June 2nd, 2014 at 8:26:57 AM permalink
Quote: JB

9/6 Jacks or Better: 109088134883252/6227020800 or about 17518.5



I'm getting slightly different results. Here they are for 9-6 JoB:

Average four of kinds to complete cycle = 41.532646
Probability of any four of a kind = 1 in 423.2722381
Total average cycle = 17579.61603
Increase in expected value for 1000 coin bonus = 0.011376813
EV for 9-6 JoB with 1,000 coin bonus = 1.006815813

So, I'm getting a slightly longer cycle.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AxelWolf
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June 2nd, 2014 at 11:41:20 AM permalink
Lets find them then worry about that. If someone knows where they are in the 9/6 version PM would be nice. Depending where and the situation, I would be willing to pay for the information or make a deal.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mickeycrimm
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June 2nd, 2014 at 1:21:39 PM permalink
I worked a lot of promotions like this. I didn't have anyone I could ask so this is the primitive method I used to determine the value of the promotion for 9/6 Jacks:


First Quad.......................................423.27
Second Quad......423.27/12 X 13 = 458.54
Third Quad.........423.27/11 X 13 = 500.23
Fourth Quad.......423.27/10 X 13 = 550.25
Fifth Quad..........423.27/9 X 13 = 611.39
Sixth Quad.........423.27/8 X 13 = 687.81
Seventh Quad....423.27/7 X 13 = 786.07
Eighth Quad......423.27/6 X 13 = 917.08
Ninth Quad.......423.27/5 X 13 = 1100.50
Tenth Quad......423.27/4 X 13 = 1375.63
Eleventh Quad..423.27/3 X 13 = 1834.17
Twelfth Quad....423.27/2 X 13 = 2749.50
Thirteenth Quad....423.27 X 13 = 5502.51

Total Number of Games = 17497

For quarters:

17497 x 1.25 = 21817.25
$250/21817.25 = a value of 1.1459%

Back in the day, to get the frequency for a natural 4 of a kind at FPDW, On Winpoker I would pull up Deuces Deluxe and replace the payscale with the FPDW payscale then hit the analyze tab. That would give me the frequency on the 4 of a kind, which was 535.

Nowadays, with Wolf Video Poker you can separate the natural from wild payoffs to get the frequency.
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Wizard
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June 2nd, 2014 at 8:42:42 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

not unless you can buy someones advanced card.



I'm writing a page on this game, although I've never actually seen it yet.

Can someone explain how the game remembers the player's state? The post mentions an "advanced card" but what is that? Is this a special card required to remember the game state? Is there a separate reader for the player card and the Avanced card?

Thank you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rudeboyoi
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June 2nd, 2014 at 8:46:45 PM permalink
I think he means buying someones players card who already has hit some quads.
mickeycrimm
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June 2nd, 2014 at 8:55:30 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'm writing a page on this game, although I've never actually seen it yet. Can someone explain how the game remembers the player's state? The post mentions an "advanced card" but what is that? Is this a special card required to remember the game state? Is there a separate reader for the player card and the Avanced card? Thank you.



The way this promotion was played in the old days was you were given a card with the 13 quads listed on it. Whenever you hit a qualifying quad you had to stop playing and call an attendant. The attendant would fill in the blank to the qualifying quad and initial it. When you filled the card up you were paid in cash.

At one place I played this promotion you could have up to two cards working.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
mickeycrimm
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June 2nd, 2014 at 9:00:11 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

The way this promotion was played in the old days was you were given a card with the 13 quads listed on it. Whenever you hit a qualifying quad you had to stop playing and call an attendant. The attendant would fill in the blank to the qualifying quad and initial it. When you filled the card up you were paid in cash.

At one place I played this promotion you could have up to two cards working.



The biggest bonus I remember on this promotion was $500 for quarters.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
AxelWolf
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June 2nd, 2014 at 9:33:35 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

The way this promotion was played in the old days was you were given a card with the 13 quads listed on it. Whenever you hit a qualifying quad you had to stop playing and call an attendant. The attendant would fill in the blank to the qualifying quad and initial it. When you filled the card up you were paid in cash.

At one place I played this promotion you could have up to two cards working.

I sure this works something like Gamblers bonus. DJ has seen them, not sure if he played or not. I think he actually missed the 9/6 at boulder station* Face-palm. Perhaps they had already changed the pay table on them.

Lots of places used to let you have multiple cards some as many as you wanted. Showboat was one I remembered they gave you a credit at Herda's Discount Appliance and electrics worth about 1700 people had no problem giving you $1500 for the vouchers. They had good pay machines so you were free rolling the entire amount it was worth on .50 machines.

The strip club I played let me and my GF have multiple cards and combine our 4 of a kinds to complete the cards for a 1k bonus. the play was well over 5% without that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
djatc
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June 2nd, 2014 at 11:12:30 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I sure this works something like Gamblers bonus. DJ has seen them, not sure if he played or not. I think he actually missed the 9/6 at boulder station* Face-palm. Perhaps they had already changed the pay table on them.

Lots of places used to let you have multiple cards some as many as you wanted. Showboat was one I remembered they gave you a credit at Herda's Discount Appliance and electrics worth about 1700 people had no problem giving you $1500 for the vouchers. They had good pay machines so you were free rolling the entire amount it was worth on .50 machines.

The strip club I played let me and my GF have multiple cards and combine our 4 of a kinds to complete the cards for a 1k bonus. the play was well over 5% without that.



But I found a 9/6 jacks $1 machine at a strip club. So that makes up for it.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
AxelWolf
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June 2nd, 2014 at 11:25:26 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

But I found a 9/6 jacks $1 machine at a strip club. So that makes up for it.

if you looking for Power abs and not quads, besides Gay strip clubs are not my thing. Ask Louie not to tell everyone where its at please.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
djatc
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June 2nd, 2014 at 11:48:11 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

if you looking for Power abs and not quads, besides Gay strip clubs are not my thing. Ask Louie not to tell everyone where its at please.



I'll introduce you to a guy who knows the lifestyle very well but he broke his foot hiking.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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June 3rd, 2014 at 5:38:16 AM permalink
With all due respect to how this was played in the old days, I'm more interested in how it is done NOW.

To answer my own question, the IGT web site says, "A log-in feature allows players to track their four-of-a-kinds and offers bonus awards for collecting all thirteen possibilities."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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June 3rd, 2014 at 8:47:21 AM permalink
Please preview my new page on Power Quads.

As always, I welcome comments, questions, and especially corrections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
odiousgambit
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June 3rd, 2014 at 9:26:08 AM permalink
Quote:

That said, the following table shows the expected number hands in a bonus cycle



insert in the above : expected number of hands

also, just what a 'cycle' is should be explained? one cycle is the expected number of hands on average to be played to get all 13, subject to variance?

you might also give an example of how the final return is calculated using the charts
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