Chance Of Getting 5 Straight Royal Flushes In 25 Days?
Quote: IbeatyouracesA royal occurs about once in 40,000. Assuming he played accurately and that fast, he played 9000 hands per day x 25 days for 225,000 hands and can expect 5.6 royals. I'd say he averaged out.
Thanks Ibeatyouraces for the info. A couple follow-up questions:
1) Are most expert jacks or better players capable of playing 900 hands/hour over several straight hours?
2) What is your average hands/hour in jacks or better while using optimal strategy?
sounds like someone told you something and you don't believe them. Absolutely they can get 900 on fast machines. The fact he claimed 900 hands per hr makes it more believable (some people claim 1000 or more). At 900 You could go for 12 hrs or even more. Some people claim they can get out 1200 perfectly on one machine, i'm not buying that.Quote: BOND777Thanks Ibeatyouraces for the info. A couple follow-up questions:
1) Are most expert jacks or better players capable of playing 900 hands/hour over several straight hours?
2) What is your average hands/hour in jacks or better while using optimal strategy?
At 900 per hrs, are they 100% mistake free? who knows, but any mistakes will probably be small and insignificant. If someone is blazing away for that many hours then then % is probably very good anyways.
Mistakes happen in VP.....cocktail waitress comes and you hit draw instead of holding the hand, friend comes and talks to you and you get distracted, some drunk sits down next to you and spills his beer. I know guys that claim they never make mistakes while blazing away. Just go look over their shoulder when they are deep in thought. I see them missing pairs constantly.
Sit there doing that for ten hous per day for 25 days? My butt would be very sore, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
no its not really that hard, especially if you go with friends or a significant other. If your running good, or you're on a nice promotion, it can be fun all 10 -12 hrs.Quote: DJTeddyBear900 hands per hour is four seconds per hand. That's not unreasonable. I can even see clocking them in at about three seconds, allowing for plenty of time for short breaks.
Sit there doing that for ten hous per day for 25 days? My butt would be very sore, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
If you had no sleep and its something like an 8/5 jacks progressive that's been going for days( your obviously losing your ass), it becomes tedious. Once you recharge its just as fun the next day or next play.
I think it's implied original hands, one machine, standard game of JOB. You could get out more on a game like pick'em.Quote: DJTeddyBearP.S. Do it on a 100 play machine, and you can easily get in several thousand hands per hour.
If you had no sleep and its something like an 8/5 jacks progressive that's been going for days( your obviously losing your ass), it becomes tedious(not even a RF will bail you out). Once you recharge, it's just as fun the next day/next play.
Quote: AxelWolfsounds like someone told you something and you don't believe them. Absolutely they can get 900 on fast machines. The fact he claimed 900 hands per hr makes it more believable (some people claim 1000 or more). At 900 You could go for 12 hrs or even more. Some people claim they can get out 1200 perfectly on one machine, i'm not buying that.
At 900 per hrs, are they 100% mistake free? who knows, but any mistakes will probably be small and insignificant. If someone is blazing away for that many hours then then % is probably very good anyways.
Mistakes happen in VP.....cocktail waitress comes and you hit draw instead of holding the hand, friend comes and talks to you and you get distracted, some drunk sits down next to you and spills his beer. I know guys that claim they never make mistakes while blazing away. Just go look over their shoulder when they are deep in thought. I see them missing pairs constantly.
Some other video players friends questioned his claim of 5 Royals in 25 days and mathematically it is possible. I think a lot depends on physical and psychological stamina.
Quote: BOND777Some other video players friends questioned his claim of 5 Royals in 25 days and mathematically it is possible. I think a lot depends on physical and psychological stamina.
I actually hit royals seven days in a row on double double bonus progressive $.25. Jackpots ranged from $1,100 to $1,800. If I had to guess, my daily play was 6 hours on average.
Quote: BOND777Some other video players friends questioned his claim of 5 Royals in 25 days and mathematically it is possible. I think a lot depends on physical and psychological stamina.
It has nothing to do with physical or psychological stamina. Putting in the error-free hours, yes. Hitting royals, no.
Care to explain that?Quote: IbeatyouracesI missed out on a $4000 one today by only playing one line.
Quote: AxelWolfCare to explain that?
I'd assume, playing $1 denom spin poker for 1 line... got a RF on an unplayed line?
In the end that's all that really matters. Who cares how many you hit if you're getting your ass handed to you.
I'm not sure, but it sounds reasonable. I'm not sure about the 900 hands per hr optionally from this particular player. or what game he is playing if its 9/6 ask him a few tricky strategy questions. I find that easier to believe then someone going 1k hrs with zero, if the play is reasonableQuote: BOND777Some other video players friends questioned his claim of 5 Royals in 25 days and mathematically it is possible. I think a lot depends on physical and psychological stamina.
Quote: PBguyThe more important question is how much is the guy up - or more likely down - after hitting those 5 RFs?
In the end that's all that really matters. Who cares how many you hit if you're getting your ass handed to you.
Well said. Putting in $10K to hit 8K or (nothing) is a lot of hours to waste. May be better off playing $200 a hand at BJ. Comes and goes a lot faster.
Now, of course, we are not all JB, but if he can do 1700, then 900 doesn't seem to be outside of the realm of possibility for us mere mortals. JoB is an easy game.
Quote: BOND777Some other video players friends questioned his claim of 5 Royals in 25 days and mathematically it is possible. I think a lot depends on physical and psychological stamina.
To the real video poker players, 5 royals in 25 days means nothing.
Last November I got 5 royals (most $2, some $1), and I only went to the casino 4 times(once a week, because it's a long trip), each time my total play
about 2 hours video poker plus about 2 hours table games. I always play single hand.
Overall, I got 8 royals since Sept. last year, but before that, I didn't hit a single one for 3 years.
Quote: Mission146I've still never hit a Royal, except a few fake Royals on 50-play or 100-play. I'd count it even if I were playing a three-hand game of some sort.
It only means you haven't played long enough. Wish you get one next time you play.
Quote: mikeabiomedI've never hit 2 on the same calendar day! Those dry spells can be costly...
I once hit two $1 royals back to back.
I put $100 in one machine to play $1 BP, the first hand got a Royal. I remember I held three cards.
When I was waiting for the slot attendant for the hand pay (it took a long time I remember, like 20 minutes or so) ,
I put another $100 in the next machine, the first hand got a Royal by holding two cards.
Quote: pokerfaceIt only means you haven't played long enough. Wish you get one next time you play.
I appreciate the kind wishes, from a probability standpoint, unfortunately, I've played long enough!!!
Quote: Mission146I appreciate the kind wishes, from a probability standpoint, unfortunately, I've played long enough!!!
I've become convinced what such things require is 'no need'
in other words, the guy who doesnt need the money is the guy who hits the Royal
Quote: RSIt has nothing to do with physical or psychological stamina. Putting in the error-free hours, yes. Hitting royals, no.
You misunderstood my post. Playing optimal strategy 10 hours straight with few or no errors takes much physical and psychological stamina. It is obvious that hitting 5 Royals in 25 days is a matter of chance. :)
I will bet you or him he cant get out 1700 hands per hr. I will even spot him a few mistakes. Single line 1 machine on a normal modern IGT JOB.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceDidn't JB say that he could "cruise" at 1700 hands per hour while playing JoB? And he is probably getting all the penalty card situations right too.
Now, of course, we are not all JB, but if he can do 1700, then 900 doesn't seem to be outside of the realm of possibility for us mere mortals. JoB is an easy game.
Quote: Mission146I've still never hit a Royal, except a few fake Royals on 50-play or 100-play. I'd count it even if I were playing a three-hand game of some sort.
I was super irritated on another forum last year because everyone kept posting pictures of royals. I thought it was impossible because I was at 120k hands and not 1 royal. Then I got 3 within 6 weeks only going 1 time a week.
My first royal was actually only hit because I won a poker tournament. It was at the Meadows and I went with $75 in my pocket only to play a poker tournament. We ended up chopping 4 ways at 2 in the morning. After tip I had something like $350. I decided to put the extra 50 into a VP. At 7am I left the casino with $1500. It was a great night.
edit: then I had $1200 because my wife and I have an agreement that when I play poker she gets all of the winnings up to $300.
Quote: mickeycrimmVariance is good and bad. In multimillions of hands i've seen a lot of extremes. 3 royals in 4000 hands, 1 royal in 250,000 hands. Stuff like this is memorable. What is not so memorable is being dealt 3K on the flop 4 or five times in 20 or so hands. The frequency of 3K on the flop in JB is 47.3. Then you go 200 hands before you see it again. You don't remember hot and cold streaks with 3K's because they only pay 3 for 1. But u damn sure remember those hot and cold streaks with the royals.
That is a great point. Yesterday when I was playing I had at least 20 hands in a row where I won the hand. Most of them were just JJ or QQ but I did have at least 5 dealt trips. Bricked them all and of course that is what I grump about. I can't believe I bricked 3 AAA on DDB in less then 10 min.
Quote: GWAEI was super irritated on another forum last year because everyone kept posting pictures of royals. I thought it was impossible because I was at 120k hands and not 1 royal. Then I got 3 within 6 weeks only going 1 time a week.
But you ended up creating the most popular thread in the subforum, be proud! lol
And at the rate I play getting 5 royals in less than a month would be nearly impossible. If it happened though, I just hope I was playing big denominations!
Quote: IbeatyouracesThat's about a hand every 2.12 seconds.
This rate is definitely possible on a fast machine. By "fast machine" I am referring to a machine where the cards are all dealt and drawn simultaneously and instantaneously, not a machine where the cards are dealt from left to right in a slow "chug-chug-chug-chug-chug" style.
think you can do it mistake free for 1 solid hr?Quote: JBThis rate is definitely possible on a fast machine. By "fast machine" I am referring to a machine where the cards are all dealt and drawn simultaneously and instantaneously, not a machine where the cards are dealt from left to right in a slow "chug-chug-chug-chug-chug" style.
Quote: AxelWolfthink you can do it mistake free for 1 solid hr?
Probably not. The problem with playing that fast is that I can't do it for very long, so it's kind of ironic to refer to the speed in hands per hour when I most likely can't play that fast for a full hour. And of course there's the occasional mistake such as not noticing the suited 256 until I have pressed the Draw button.
Quote: JBProbably not. The problem with playing that fast is that I can't do it for very long, so it's kind of ironic to refer to the speed in hands per hour when I most likely can't play that fast for a full hour. And of course there's the occasional mistake such as not noticing the suited 256 until I have pressed the Draw button.
FWIW, I just timed myself, playing a 100 hand session on videopoker.com. It took me 7 minutes, playing DDB. I don't think I made any mistakes (other than penalty card situations, which I don't know for DDB). Also, the game is 10/6, but I play 9/6 strategy because that's all I know and I don't see the point of learning a new strategy for a game that I will never find in a casino.
100 hands in 7 minutes is about 850 hands per hour. This is on a computer, so I have to click the cards to hold individually (at a real machine I can hit all the buttons at the same time) and I have to move the mouse around. Also, this game does not have a "turbo" mode so the cards come out one at a time (although, they are pretty quick) So, I think I'd reasonably be able to get up to about 1200 hands/hr on a real machine (I will time myself the next time I am playing at a casino). From this, it is not a stretch to think that someone like JB (more experienced, and a better player) could hit 1700-ish.
Of course, this is just a speed for a stretch of 100 hands or so. I'm not talking about keeping this speed up consistently for hours. I do notice that I tend to slow down after playing for a while -- I can only focus for so long.
What ever happened with that "fastest VP player" contest that the Wizard was talking about?
