Bar promotion

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May 11th, 2010 at 11:19:29 PM permalink

[NOTE: Edited on 5/13 to correct the figures]

If you use perfect Full Pay Deuces Wild strategy, the return would be 116.0609% until the royal is hit.

If you use perfect strategy for the above paytable with the 4,000-coin royal, the return would be 117.5452% until the royal is hit.

If you use perfect strategy for the above paytable with the 48,000-coin royal, the return would be 125.5080% until the royal is hit.

Robmorrow

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May 12th, 2010 at 1:48:16 AM permalink

Which casino is this promotion being run?

gambler

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May 12th, 2010 at 8:53:33 AM permalink

Quote: Robmorrow
Which casino is this promotion being run?

Laugh. I bet London won't say, until he hits the royal flush!

pacomartin

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May 12th, 2010 at 9:34:11 AM permalink

Quote: LondonPride
So. I'm sitting in a bar in Vegas that has video poker (are there any that don't??). They are running a promotion which awards the first Royal Flush hit on each video poker machine with $12,000. You have to play a minimum of $.25 stakes and 5 coins per hand. I've listed the pay table below. Can you tell me what the expected return is on these machines during this promotion, following basic Deuces Wild strategy?

Many thanks,
LP

4000
1000
100
60
50
20
20
15
10
5

Plug your payouts into a table on Deuces Wild - 95.96% .

cardshark

cardshark

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May 12th, 2010 at 10:21:57 AM permalink

You can use the program on the vpgenius.com website to determine the expected return. The website will also tell you what the perfect strategy is to achieve that return.

Without the promotion, I get 97.5791%. With the promotion (48,000 coins for a royal - $0.25*5 denom), I get 125.5080% with perfect play. Just a little above JB's values.

You better keep this one secret! Play multiple machines and all day if you can.

rudeboyoi

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May 12th, 2010 at 11:23:12 AM permalink

do they let you know which machines still count towards the promotion?

LondonPride

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May 12th, 2010 at 2:21:16 PM permalink

Quote: rudeboyoi
do they let you know which machines still count towards the promotion?

I need to find out the answer to this, but I'm guessing no.

LondonPride

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May 12th, 2010 at 2:23:21 PM permalink

Quote: Robmorrow
Which casino is this promotion being run?

I'll tell you after I find out the above information... and/or after I hit my Royal! It's not a casino though, it's a bar.

pacomartin

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May 12th, 2010 at 2:32:58 PM permalink

Quote: cardshark
You can use the program on the vpgenius.com website to determine the expected return. The website will also tell you what the perfect strategy is to achieve that return.

Without the promotion, I get 97.5791%. With the promotion (48,000 coins for a royal - $0.25*5 denom), I get 125.5080% with perfect play. Just a little above JB's values.

You better keep this one secret! Play multiple machines and all day if you can.

Your calculation is probably slightly off since I doubt they pay the 4000 coins as well for the royal. I tend to think that JB did it correctly. If they run this promotion until there is only one machine that has not paid off (I am guessing there is 15 machines in the bar), the increased play on the machines that have already paid off may reduce the bar-wide expected value. You may get a hard core group that hangs out in the bar looking to see which machines pay.

The odds are 45K to 1 to get the royal on a Deuces Wild machine, so it could take quite a while to pay off all 15 machines. In theory the bar could extend the promotion beyond the point when all 15 machines pay off.

LondonPride

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May 12th, 2010 at 9:58:16 PM permalink

Slight correction to the promotion, although it shouldn't change the original expected return. The first person to hit a Royal on any machine wins the $12k. The next person to do so on any machine (including the same one previously hit) wins $11k. This pattern continues on down to the normal 4000 coin payout.

So there is no worrying about whether you're playing on a machine which qualifies for the max payout.

Robmorrow

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May 13th, 2010 at 12:24:49 AM permalink

London,

Would you please share with us what bar this is at?

Robmorrow

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May 13th, 2010 at 12:30:07 AM permalink

JB,

Can you explain the above figures? I understand the 48,000 coin Royal is equivalent to $12,000 so that's 123.2098%. However, why does the standard 4,000 coin Royal yield 114.9895% on your calculation above? And how many coins will yield your return of 113.9379%?

JB
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May 13th, 2010 at 5:31:54 AM permalink

I made a mistake somewhere in my figures. The corrected numbers are:

Using perfect FPDW strategy = 116.0609%
Using perfect strategy for the base game, without the promotion = 97.5791%
Using perfect strategy for the base game, with the promotion = 117.5452%
Using perfect strategy for the base game, with the 48,000-coin royal taken into consideration = 125.5080%

To answer Robmorrow's questions -- what I meant was using the strategy that you would use if the royal only paid 4,000 coins, when the royal actually pays 48,000 coins. "Full Pay Deuces Wild" (FPDW) refers to the version of Deuces Wild whose paytable is 5-10-10-15-25-45-75-125-1000-4000.

pacomartin

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May 13th, 2010 at 5:38:56 AM permalink

And still we don't know where the bar is located! You have to put an average of 45K coins in to win the 48K coins. There is no reason to be greedy.

Robmorrow

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May 13th, 2010 at 11:02:01 AM permalink

Thanks JB.

I take it, the strategy alters from the basic strategy when the machine pays 48,000 coins instead, thus the higher player advantage vs. regular strategy. If so, where can I find the perfect strategy for the 48,000 coin machine?

And London, please share. It's bad karma to keep it all to yourself. The community is meant for sharing.

rudeboyoi

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May 13th, 2010 at 12:54:41 PM permalink

without doing any simulations, id imagine some changes would be keeping any two suited broadways. tossing away some smaller pairs if you have two suited broadways with them like 455JsTs but might keep TT in 45TJsTs or keep 55 in 55KAsTs.

pacomartin

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May 13th, 2010 at 1:02:28 PM permalink

It's pretty hard to do this by guesswork. I would think 3 to RF of any cards would move higher than 4 to a inside straight flush.
# Suited 10-J-Q
# 4 to an inside straight flush
# 3 to a royal flush, except 10-J-Q
# Pair
# Two pair
# 4 to a flush
# 4 to an outside straight
# 3 to a straight flush, spread 3-4, suited 345
# 2 to a royal flush, jack highest

=================
London doesn't want to give the name of the bar up anyway. I can't find it on the internet. I doubt that there enough people who read the forums that live in Vegas that will overcrowd the bar.

JB
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May 13th, 2010 at 10:45:35 PM permalink

The basic strategy would look like this, and would return 125.4953% (assuming the royal still pays 48,000 coins):

No Deuces Dealt

Royal Flush
4 to a Royal Flush
Straight Flush
3 to a Royal Flush
Straight / Flush / Full House / Four of a Kind
Three of a Kind
4 to a Straight Flush
2 to a Royal Flush - TJ
2 to a Royal Flush - TQ, JQ
2 to a Royal Flush - TK, JK, QK
2 to a Royal Flush - TA, JA, QA, KA
4 to a Flush
Two Pair
4 to a Straight Flush - 567, 678, 789, 89T
One Pair
4 to an outside Straight - 4567, 5678, 6789, 789T, 89TJ, 9TJQ, TJQK
3 to a Straight Flush
4 to an inside Straight (except A345)
Ten
Discard everything

One Deuce Dealt

4 to a Natural Royal Flush
Straight Flush / Five of a Kind
3 to a Natural Royal Flush
Flush / Full House / Four of a Kind
4 to a Straight Flush, 0 or 1 gaps (W345, W456, W4x7 - W9xQ)
Straight
4 to a Straight Flush, 2 gaps, no Ace (W3x6, W3x7 - W9xQ)
3 of a Kind
4 to a Straight Flush, Ace low
3 to a Wild Royal - WTJ, WTQ, WJQ
3 to a Straight Flush - W67, W78, W89, W9T
3 to a Wild Royal - WTK, WJK, WQK
3 to a Straight Flush - W56, W57, W68, W79, W8T, W9J
3 to a Straight Flush - W45
3 to a Wild Royal - WTA, WJA, WQA, WKA
4 to a Straight - W567, W678, W789, W89T, W9TJ, WTJQ
Wild only

Two Deuces Dealt

Straight Flush / Five of a Kind / Wild Royal Flush
Four of a Kind
4 to a Wild Royal Flush
4 to a Straight Flush - 0, 1, or 2 gaps (Wilds + 34, 35, 45, 46, 47, 56, 57, 58, 67, 68, 69, 78, 79, 7T, 89, 8T, 8J, 9T, 9J, 9Q)
The following specific Flushes: WW36T, WW37J, WW48Q, WW59K, WW49A, WW59A
Wilds only

Three Deuces Dealt

Wild Royal Flush
Wilds only

Four Deuces Dealt

Hold all five cards

Legend

W = Wild card (a Deuce)
A = an Ace
K = a King
Q = a Queen
J = a Jack
T = a Ten

pokerface

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May 17th, 2010 at 2:06:19 PM permalink

Quote: Robmorrow

And London, please share. It's bad karma to keep it all to yourself. The community is meant for sharing.

well put

winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.

pacomartin

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May 17th, 2010 at 3:12:45 PM permalink

Quote: JB
The basic strategy would look like this, and would return 125.4953% (assuming the royal still pays 48,000 coins):

No Deuces Dealt

Royal Flush
4 to a Royal Flush
Straight Flush
3 to a Royal Flush
Straight / Flush / Full House / Four of a Kind

Well technically there is now way to have a Full House or Four of a Kind, and also have one of the three higher hands.

However, the idea of throwing away a flush in favor of 3 to a Royal Flush would be difficult to do. But I trust the mathematics.

Just out of curiosity, what is the lowest the RF payout would have to be until you keep the Flush?

LondonPride

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May 19th, 2010 at 4:06:15 AM permalink

Fellow degenerates: The promotion is being run at a place downtown called Sidebar. The payout for a natural RF currently sits at $9500.

I wanted to enter the payouts into the Video Poker Analyzer on the Wizard's website, but the Java app won't load. If we could get updated expected returns and strategies (if there are any changes to the strat) with the new RF payout that'd be great. Many thanks to JB for all the info thus far, very impressive.

Quote: Robmorrow

And London, please share. It's bad karma to keep it all to yourself.

I can't believe you used that word on a gambling forum. There should be a one week ban or similar penalty for such nonsense!

pacomartin

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May 19th, 2010 at 5:29:19 AM permalink

Sidebar

teddys

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May 19th, 2010 at 7:27:40 AM permalink

Did anyone read this from their website?

Methinks this is as good a reason as any to hit them for all they've got ...

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

pacomartin

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May 19th, 2010 at 8:53:36 AM permalink

Sidebar and Triple George Grill are owned by the same people and are connected. Triple George runs happy hour until 6PM and Sidebar runs to 7PM. Half off a great selection of appetizers. If you don't win, at least you will eat well for not much money.

The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Almost always misquoted with methinks at the beginning, the word protest 400 years ago meant to take a vow. It did not mean to complain. So the actual phrase takes on a slightly different meaning than it does to the modern reader.

Doc

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May 19th, 2010 at 9:05:40 AM permalink

Quote: pacomartin
Sidebar

The linked web site describes the establishment as "the most legendary�and rowdy�bar in America." Sorta brought to mind Mr. Martin's posting in an earlier thread where he described the Ultra New Town Tavern. Perhaps they are not really so much alike as the phrasing might suggest. :-)

pacomartin

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May 19th, 2010 at 9:50:04 AM permalink

Quote: Doc
Quote: pacomartin
Sidebar

The linked web site describes the establishment as "the most legendaryï¿½and rowdyï¿½bar in America." Sorta brought to mind Mr. Martin's posting in an earlier thread where he described the Ultra New Town Tavern. Perhaps they are not really so much alike as the phrasing might suggest. :-)

That phrase is being used to describe Hogs and Heifers, the motorcycle bar next door. Sidebar is more likely to be frequented by lawyers.

If you post on a website that a bar is the most legendary rowdy bar in America, it is mostly full of pretenders, people with straight jobs that put on leather jackets and ride motorcycles on weekends. The Ultra New Town Tavern and the Silver Saddle Saloon are not full of pretenders. They don't need a website to tell them to fight.

LondonPride

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May 19th, 2010 at 7:29:03 PM permalink

I've listed the payouts for the Jacks or Better game on this machine below. Can someone run the numbers an compare the expected return on this game compared to Deuces Wild? Somebody told me I should be playing JoB so that I don't have to worry about holding deuces. By the way, the jackpot for a RF is now $9000.

Thanks,
LP

4000
250
125
45
25
20
15
10
5

pacomartin

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May 19th, 2010 at 7:45:44 PM permalink

We were probably in the bar at the same time since someone hit the $9500 while I was there. It was pretty crowded. One of the girls gave me the scoop. The people that own Triple George Grill (and the Sidebar) were also the owners of the Lady Luck Casino that is on both sides of the bar. When the Lady Luck was shuttered 4 years ago they expected it to re-open in a few months. They had an unexpended promotion of several hundred thousand that they figured they would just delay until they re-opened.

The representative from the gaming commission recently told them that four years was too long, and they had to give the money away in a promotion somehow (in a specific amount of time). Since they were now restricted to only 15 machines in the Sidebar, the only schemes they could come up with had a huge player advantage. A more reasonable scheme would not have expended the money in the allotted time.

They did change it as LondonPride pointed out so that there is one countdown for the entire bar since the countdown per machine was unworkable/

So for a few more days the machines are running at massive negative HA. Sidebar is on 3rd Street in Downtown Vegas, and they have a nice happy hour from 3-7.

jburgess

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May 20th, 2010 at 7:36:43 AM permalink

Quote: pacomartin

The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Almost always misquoted with methinks at the beginning, the word protest 400 years ago meant to take a vow. It did not mean to complain. So the actual phrase takes on a slightly different meaning than it does to the modern reader.

So was the original meaning that the lady was promising more then she can really offer or back up?

pacomartin

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May 20th, 2010 at 8:10:06 AM permalink

Quote: jburgess
So was the original meaning that the lady was promising more then she can really offer or back up?

Yes, in the sense that the "lady" (an actress who plays a queen) makes vows of love, promises of fidelity, and tells of the lack of desire to ever marry again. The irony of course is the woman who makes the quote is Hamlet's mother, and she married her brother in law within a few months of her husband's death.

teddys

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May 20th, 2010 at 1:00:21 PM permalink

Quote: LondonPride
I've listed the payouts for the Jacks or Better game on this machine below. Can someone run the numbers an compare the expected return on this game compared to Deuces Wild? Somebody told me I should be playing JoB so that I don't have to worry about holding deuces. By the way, the jackpot for a RF is now $9000.

Thanks,
LP

4000
250
125
45
25
20
15
10
5

That's a 9/5 Jacks paytable; not horrible especially for a bar. You won't lose that much playing this game waiting for the royal. The base return is 98.44%. I think that's better than the deuces game you posted before. Plus it's an easier strategy.

"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

Robmorrow

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May 21st, 2010 at 1:28:25 AM permalink

JB,

Would you please post the optimal strategy for the Jacks or Better Game assuming $9,000 payout for the Royal Flush on the 9/5 quarter machines?

Thanks

JB
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May 22nd, 2010 at 9:18:06 AM permalink

Quote: LondonPride
I wanted to enter the payouts into the Video Poker Analyzer on the Wizard's website, but the Java app won't load.

Would you happen to have any more details about the Java applet not loading (an error message, etc)? It was recently revamped to support dozens of game categories, and optimized to the point that it can analyze a game in a fraction of a second... I'm a bit disappointed to hear that it won't load for you.

LondonPride

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May 22nd, 2010 at 7:26:20 PM permalink

When I go to this page...

The Java app attempts to load but fails. I get the red X in the upper left corner of where the app should be. In Firefox, I receive a "Loading Java Applet Failed..." message in the lower left of my browser. I'm using a Mac PowerPC and tried Safari and Firefox.

LondonPride

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May 22nd, 2010 at 7:34:09 PM permalink

By the way, guess who whacked the promotion for an $8500 Royal Flush yesterday...

<---- THIS GUY!!

Thanks to everybody for the number crunching and information.

Robmorrow

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May 22nd, 2010 at 11:45:54 PM permalink

Congrats London. Told ya that if you shared the info, it will bring you better karma and the reverse would be true if you didn't.<g> So how long did it take you to hit the jackpot? How much did you put in the machines before hitting?

rudeboyoi

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May 23rd, 2010 at 1:15:00 AM permalink

Quote: LondonPride
By the way, guess who whacked the promotion for an $8500 Royal Flush yesterday...

<---- THIS GUY!!

Thanks to everybody for the number crunching and information.

i was there yesterday. i know exactly who you are then. you were sitting at one of the standup machines. me and my friend were on the standup machines to the right of you. nice hit.

pacomartin

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May 23rd, 2010 at 4:11:37 AM permalink

Quote: LondonPride
By the way, guess who whacked the promotion for an $8500 Royal Flush yesterday...

<---- THIS GUY!!

Thanks to everybody for the number crunching and information.

That was you? I was at the other end of the bar.

LondonPride

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May 23rd, 2010 at 6:33:20 AM permalink

Quote: Robmorrow
Congrats London. Told ya that if you shared the info, it will bring you better karma and the reverse would be true if you didn't.<g> So how long did it take you to hit the jackpot? How much did you put in the machines before hitting?

Thanks. It took quite a while, but was certainly worth it. At least 4 days of 5 hours a day (one day was 7 hours), and I was in for a little over $1k. I don't know the exact figures but I have a feeling I was overdue, oddswise. The bartender (very cool guy) told me a guy who hit one of the first jackpots was in for at least $2k before hitting, so that made me feel a little better. But I'd be willing to bet that I saw more hands of video poker than at least 99% of everyone in Vegas during that stretch. The grossest part was seeing someone pop in there, just killing time and casually playing, and snap one off. But I guess it's silly to worry about those instances.

Are you serious about the karma thing? I can't tell if you're joking and I don't know what the "<g>" in your post signifies.

pacomartin

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May 23rd, 2010 at 9:52:07 AM permalink

Quote: LondonPride
The grossest part was seeing someone pop in there, just killing time and casually playing, and snap one off. But I guess it's silly to worry about those instances.

One girl who worked there told me she got hers by investing $80 and a few hours of her time. Another guy (who dates one of the waitresses) said he got his in less than 9 hours and invested about $200.

Robmorrow

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May 23rd, 2010 at 11:55:59 AM permalink

Well London, I am mostly kidding, as I know it doesn't really make a difference either way, but luck does play a factor. Why else would someone just walk in, and instantly hit it after a few plays? The <g> stands for "grin" as I have seen on other message boards and usenet.

Robmorrow

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May 23rd, 2010 at 12:08:55 PM permalink

London, do you know when the promo first started? Was it when you first posted on 5/11?

rudeboyoi

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May 23rd, 2010 at 12:09:20 PM permalink

me and my friend are collectively down about $1100 now trying to hit it. one thing i noticed is that a lot of players are playing one of the bonus poker games instead of jacks or better. which is stupid since youre supposed to throw away those small pairs with two suited broadway cards and the small pairs are what you get paid the bonus on if you hit quads.

pacomartin

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May 23rd, 2010 at 12:52:47 PM permalink

Quote: Robmorrow
London, do you know when the promo first started? Was it when you first posted on 5/11?

I think it was around then. The bartenders can't remember the exact date, but they say about 9 days ago. There was no promotion so the first few winners all worked there or were regulars.

LondonPride

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May 23rd, 2010 at 2:53:30 PM permalink

Quote: rudeboyoi
me and my friend are collectively down about $1100 now trying to hit it.

You'll get there. Are you guys working together and going to split it? I had an idea I thought of before hitting mine: post an ad on craigslist to pay someone ~$9 an hour + 1% of winnings to sit next to me and play. The 1% would give them an interest to learn and use proper strategy.

I'm pretty sure it was the first day of the promo when I posted from the bar. I was literally the only person in the bar for a little while that night.

rudeboyoi