100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 22nd, 2014 at 4:52:22 PM permalink
best machines at this casino:

$5 8/6 JoB single line
$5 dw44 single line
$5 8/6 JoB multi-line (3,5,10) progressive.
$5 dw44 multi-line (3,5,10) NON-progressive.

since its freeplay, max out the variance and play 10-play dw44?
at $250 per spin, i'm going to have just 2 spins.

or stick with dw44 single line?

or?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2014 at 4:59:45 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

best machines at this casino:

$5 8/6 JoB single line
$5 dw44 single line
$5 8/6 JoB multi-line (3,5,10) progressive.
$5 dw44 multi-line (3,5,10) NON-progressive.

since its freeplay, max out the variance and play 10-play dw44?
at $250 per spin, i'm going to have just 2 spins.

or stick with dw44 single line?

or?

What is your goal?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 23rd, 2014 at 1:42:21 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What is your goal?



as strange as it sounds, I don't know.

last week I used my $800 of comps on $5 dw44 and only got 74% return. :(

don't know what I want out of this $500.
what are my options?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
tringlomane
tringlomane
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February 23rd, 2014 at 3:12:31 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

as strange as it sounds, I don't know.

last week I used my $800 of comps on $5 dw44 and only got 74% return. :(

don't know what I want out of this $500.
what are my options?



If you're disappointed at a 74% return at dw44, move down to 8/5 JoB at the 50c level. Or even 6/5 Bonus if it's at a cheaper denomination like multi-line nickels. If you want to lower variance, you need to play more hands on your freeplay stake. Sorry you didn't run very well.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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February 28th, 2014 at 5:56:11 PM permalink
so I played the $500 freeplay at $5 dueces wild (98.9%).
turned it into $425 for 85% :(

$770 comps + 500 freeplay = $1270
got 570+425
78% return overall :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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February 28th, 2014 at 5:58:46 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so I played the $500 freeplay at $5 dueces wild (98.9%).
turned it into $425 for 85% :(

$770 comps + 500 freeplay = $1270
got 570+425
78% return overall :(



Remember that the expected return is an average, not a median.

Most times you will be well below the average. Occasionally (when you hit a big hand like a royal) you will be very far above. So, the median result is going to be quite a bit lower than the average.
Mission146
Mission146
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February 28th, 2014 at 6:16:29 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

so I played the $500 freeplay at $5 dueces wild (98.9%).
turned it into $425 for 85% :(



That's hardly a poor result at $25/hand.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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February 28th, 2014 at 6:20:01 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
djatc
djatc
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March 1st, 2014 at 1:51:43 AM permalink
If you really want to get as close to the amount of freeplay, try to find the lowest denomination you can stand playing for taking account the time and coin in, at a reasonable return. Of course the more hands you'll play on lower denoms the more you want your fulll houses and flushes to be full pay.

I've ran $1000 on 25c and it wasn't that bad. Only takes 800 hands at $1.25 a pop which should be a bit over an hour. I've ran extremely bad and hit no quads in that cycle, but came out at least 80% of the freeplay amount.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
tringlomane
tringlomane
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March 1st, 2014 at 11:12:52 PM permalink
On playing through the freeplay for the $100 Cosmo rebate (RIP), I played 5 line pennies for about an hour playing 7/5 Bonus (98.01% max). Actual result: 89% return, and that includes hitting 4 Aces once. $25/hand could obviously be all over the map.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 2nd, 2014 at 5:40:41 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Remember that the expected return is an average, not a median.

Most times you will be well below the average. Occasionally (when you hit a big hand like a royal) you will be very far above. So, the median result is going to be quite a bit lower than the average.



ahh.. so feast or famine.
98.9% avg but in reality it's going to be either a lot below if u don't hit the royal/quad 2's or waaaaaaaay above if u do hit it

so based on my play, it's 20% below. :(

but based on other people's play, it could be only 10% below if I played at lower denominations (ie: $1 instead of $5) even if the return ion the machine is lower.
$1 8/5 JoB vs $5 8/6 JoB
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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March 2nd, 2014 at 5:37:10 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

ahh.. so feast or famine.
98.9% avg but in reality it's going to be either a lot below if u don't hit the royal/quad 2's or waaaaaaaay above if u do hit it

so based on my play, it's 20% below. :(

but based on other people's play, it could be only 10% below if I played at lower denominations (ie: $1 instead of $5) even if the return ion the machine is lower.
$1 8/5 JoB vs $5 8/6 JoB



Yes, for a small number of spins, it's feast or famine. You need to play a LOT of hands before your results start looking like a normal distribution. At the very least, you have to play enough hands that one more or one less royal would not make that big of a difference to your results.

Think about it this way. You hit a royal once every 40,000 hands or so in most games. That royal pays you 800 bets, so your wins from royals are worth 800/40,000 = 2%. So if you are playing a game that returns 99.5%, it returns only 97.5% in between royals (since 2% of your return is form royals... if you don't get any, you don't get that 2%). Similarly (using JoB as an example), straight flushes make up about 1% of your return and 4OAKs make up almost 6%. So you are basically losing at a 9.5% clip in between "big hands" (defined as 4OAK or more). If you play for a very short amount of time, you can't possibly get your "fair share" of those big hands (you can't get 1/4 of a 4OAK -- you either get it or you don't). So if you get your big hand, you will up a lot, and if you don't you will be down a lot.

In a higher variance game, you get even more of your return from big hands. 4OAKs make up about 18.5% of your return in DDB! If you are playing DDB and don't get any 4OAK's, SFs, or RFs, your expected return is below 80%. Because those hands are relatively rare, the swings are very big. If you "run well" and hit a lot of them, you will win a lot. If you don't, and don't hit any, you will lose a lot. If you play for long enough, sometimes you will run well and sometimes you will run bad and it will all even out, but over a few hundred hands you will either get lucky or you won't.

In the long term it will all even out, but the long term is a very long time.
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