Vulturing 'Ultimate X'
Quote: HoodstarI haven't hit anything vulturing. Think the most I've made on a play is 4 bucks and I've found some high EV plays too at higher than quarters.
Someday variance will even out. That's what they say anyway :)
vulturing opportunities are waaay down since last year at my 2 casinos.
tooooo many vultures.
and of those I do find, it's usually a single 2x or 3x.
a single 2x/3x is not +ev if you're doing triple play. much worse if it's 5x or 10x. yet I play them anyway...
use your freeplay to vulture. that way you're not out of pocket any $ when you brick.
Quote: 100xOddsvulturing opportunities are waaay down since last year at my 2 casinos.
tooooo many vultures.
and of those I do find, it's usually a single 2x or 3x.
a single 2x/3x is not +ev if you're doing triple play. much worse if it's 5x or 10x. yet I play them anyway...
use your freeplay to vulture. that way you're not out of pocket any $ when you brick.
A single 2x on a 10 play is 106.7% overall. Assuming a 97% payback game even... at the dollar level for simple math:
Hand 1 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 2 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 3 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 4 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 5 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 6 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 7 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 8 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 9 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 10 EV = (5*.97)2 = (4.85)2 = 9.70, a net WIN of 4.70.
Thus, on the first 9 hands you can expect to lose 9x$0.15 = $1.35, but on the 10th hand you expect to win $4.70, for a net WIN of $3.35.
Overall you bet $50, and expect to win $3.35, a 6.7% edge.
EDIT:
For fun I thought I'd do 3 play as well, as this should have an even greater edge. Same setup as before (97% at $1 level):
Hand 1 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 2 EV = 5*.97 = 4.85, a net loss of $0.15.
Hand 3 EV = (5*.97)2 = (4.85)2 = 9.70, a net WIN of 4.70.
Thus, on the first 2 hands you can expect to lose 2x$0.15 = $0.30, but on the 3rd hand you expect to win $4.70, for a net WIN of $4.40.
Overall you bet $15, and expect to win $4.40, a 29% edge.
Quote: DieterWhat are the flush and straight flush payouts?
25/250. It was a joke hence the smiley face ;-)
I kept the flush.
then i'm not a degen gambler.
I was being smart w/my plays and I didn't even know it :)
and at my casinos, Ult X usually has one of the lowest paybacks (~95%).
but from your math, it's still probably +ev with a single 2x
Isn't it nice to know you're not a degenerate gambler? lol =D
I have a shirt that says "It's only a gambling problem if I'm losing" that I like to wear to the casinos ;)
Quote: Mission146At least a couple dirty Royals. Last time I got dealt four to a Royal vulturing I whiffed completely.
I swear, I'm at least 0 for 300 on 4 ROY draws since the last one. I can't even remember when the last one was. Was still a good day today though :-)
Quote: IbeatyouracesI swear, I'm at least 0 for 300 on 4 ROY draws since the last one. I can't even remember when the last one was. Was still a good day today though :-)
I dunno if it was 0 for 300 for me, but it was Feb. 2011 (first ever Royal) until last week. It was probably at least 0 of 100 or so given my play rate. It's currently 0 of 6. And yes, I'm counting the 3 bricks after I hit on line 2. lol I also missed a 3-line 4 to a Royal on nickel Spin Poker later that night.
Quote: tringlomaneI dunno if it was 0 for 300 for me, but it was Feb. 2011 (first ever Royal) until last week. It was probably at least 0 of 100 or so given my play rate. It's currently 0 of 6. And yes, I'm counting the 3 bricks after I hit on line 2. lol I also missed a 3-line 4 to a Royal on nickel Spin Poker later that night.
I missed 3 last night on single line 9/6 JoB at Soaring Eagle.
The fact that you thought they were -EV yet played them anyway is a bad sign (-;Quote: 100xOddsRomes,
then i'm not a degen gambler.
I was being smart w/my plays and I didn't even know it :)
and at my casinos, Ult X usually has one of the lowest paybacks (~95%).
but from your math, it's still probably +ev with a single 2x
Quote: IbeatyouracesI swear, I'm at least 0 for 300 on 4 ROY draws since the last one. I can't even remember when the last one was. Was still a good day today though :-)
Now imagine you're on 3/DDB $1 with 4ROY and three 12x's. I've missed three of those this year with 4ROY on varying denoms, but the $1 denom is the one that stung the most, runner up being the part where you get blanked all three times for the flush, straight, or simple JoB.
The best at 10x is a full house.
Don't remember 11x or 8x which probably means not better than 3oak.
Yes, I know its random but it seems the higher the multiplier, the worse the original 5cards are.
Even if you found ~422 8X's or higher so far, there would be about a ~36% chance you wouldn't have hit a quad on one.
Quote: 100xOddsIn all the years I've been vulturing, the best hand I got from a 12x is a straight.
The best at 10x is a full house.
Don't remember 11x or 8x which probably means not better than 3oak.
Yes, I know its random but it seems the higher the multiplier, the worse the original 5cards are.
Trust me, I feel the exact same way.
Best hand I've had on a 12x is a full house on quarters, best on a 10x was 4A+Kicker, best on 8/11 was 4A+Kicker, I don't think I've hit anything other than a mid range 4oak on a 5/6/7x, with my all time best hand being on a 4x.
Quote: tringlomane4x is the best I've done with a quad. And still haven't hit Aces yet with a multiplier. But remember finding 8x or higher left behind is much rarer.
Even if you found ~422 8X's or higher so far, there would be about a ~36% chance you wouldn't have hit a quad on one.
That's the silent lament of the game we play, because so often we're on a 10 play single 2x or single 3x game, and the good hand always goes right before or right after the multiplier.
Of course when I play nickels I get quads once or twice on non X hands for a tidy 3 dollar profit lol -_-
Quote: HoodstarPretty sure this game is rigged. Any time i find a good multiplier on quarters or better it's brick city all around. Best one I found this weekend was this: http://imgur.com/HYonIvE
Of course when I play nickels I get quads once or twice on non X hands for a tidy 3 dollar profit lol -_-
If that's the best one you found all weekend, you either didn't look too much, or youre in a crappy area. :(
And it's unfortunately a decent amount of luck on the higher denoms because opportunities are rarer. Fortunately I've done fairly well at higher denoms. I would argue above average. But I might be wrong on that.
Ace of diamonds would've been a $4K jackpot. Oh well, I'll take it.
Quote: chaunceyb3
Ace of diamonds would've been a $4K jackpot. Oh well, I'll take it.
Got dealt KKKJoker once on five play quarters. Couldn't find the other K :-(
Quote: tringlomaneIf that's the best one you found all weekend, you either didn't look too much, or youre in a crappy area. :(
And it's unfortunately a decent amount of luck on the higher denoms because opportunities are rarer. Fortunately I've done fairly well at higher denoms. I would argue above average. But I might be wrong on that.
So I'm in AC. What I've noticed is if I look during prime time there are a lot of good opportunities. But usually I only look after I end my poker session around 3-4am so perhaps the good opportunities are either already cleared out by then. Also will check in afternoon after I wake up and about to leave the casino:
But yes in general I consider that a good find. Not uncommon for me to clear an entire row of UX machines and not find one multiplier so probably going to give it up soon. Losing money every minute i don't play poker anyway during prime hours.
Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: chaunceyb3
Ace of diamonds would've been a $4K jackpot. Oh well, I'll take it.
Got dealt KKKJoker once on five play quarters. Couldn't find the other K :-(
If you think that's bad, I was dealt 3 aces on JoB and hit the 4th with a Deuce kicker the very NEXT hand after switching off the DDB 5x's I had found. Oh, also, it was on .25 denom 10 play. It ended up something like a $125 win or something, which otherwise would have been around $2600 on the prevous game. No big deal, just going to cry a little bit about it.
Quote: HoodstarLosing money every minute i don't play poker anyway during prime hours.
Can you be in two places at once?
I don't know... perhaps a close friend of yours can look for machine plays, while you're working the poker room?
Quote: DieterCan you be in two places at once?
I don't know... perhaps a close friend of yours can look for machine plays, while you're working the poker room?
Heh I like your thinking. Problem with that though is I am skeptical that you can make a similar hourly vulturing UX as you can playing 2/5 or 5/10 NL. If you could, would be an interesting idea to play as a team and split profits.
Unless this other player just wants to share profits with me for altruistic reasons. :)
Quote: HoodstarHeh I like your thinking. Problem with that though is I am skeptical that you can make a similar hourly vulturing UX as you can playing 2/5 or 5/10 NL. If you could, would be an interesting idea to play as a team and split profits.
Your opportunities are few and far between.
If you have a friend/brother-in-law//girlfriend/other who wants to go anyway, and can learn to do these plays, it's a good deal... especially if they will run enough coin in to warrant some decent mailers.
If it makes a few hundred dollars plus dinner and their amusement, and they're riding along with you when you're going anyway... where's the harm?
Quote: WizardofnothingAbsolutely can make more vulturing then on 2-5. 5-10 would be hard but way fewer swings
I don't know what the average guy makes on 2/5 or 5/10 NL, but in the right setting, you could potentially make way, way more. You can also make, way, way less if you're getting blanked.
Quote: WizardofnothingAbsolutely can make more vulturing then on 2-5. 5-10 would be hard but way fewer swings
Maybe i just run god awful at finding multipliers then. Like I said, I often go through an entire bank without finding a single multiplier. The majority of the ones I do find are on .5 10 play or .25 triple play, and usually just a single 2x.
A 2/5 crusher can make 50 r. The best players 5/10 players I know know can clear 100 on that game. I find it hard to believe you can make more money than that vulturing primarily because a) vulturing is pretty easy, doesn't require much study to learn to do, b) requires little to no bankroll, and c) a lot of people know about the play. If you could make more than 50 per hour regularly I feel like a lot more people would be doing it since the barrier to enter is so low.
My hourly vulturing is around .50/hour but perhaps I am running bad. AC isn't exactly a berry patch though so perhaps the opportunities are better elsewhere.
Quote: HoodstarMaybe i just run god awful at finding multipliers then. Like I said, I often go through an entire bank without finding a single multiplier. The majority of the ones I do find are on .5 10 play or .25 triple play, and usually just a single 2x.
A 2/5 crusher can make 50 r. The best players 5/10 players I know know can clear 100 on that game. I find it hard to believe you can make more money than that vulturing primarily because a) vulturing is pretty easy, doesn't require much study to learn to do, b) requires little to no bankroll, and c) a lot of people know about the play. If you could make more than 50 per hour regularly I feel like a lot more people would be doing it since the barrier to enter is so low.
My hourly vulturing is around .50/hour but perhaps I am running bad. AC isn't exactly a berry patch though so perhaps the opportunities are better elsewhere.
$50/hr is not sustainable from UX pretty much everywhere. Otherwise, I'd be driving to my local a LOT more often to do it. lol And the other thing about UX is, sometimes, you won't be able to constantly find opportunities because sometimes the vultures pick them off faster than they get created (sounds like you might be running into that issue). A "good" place is when you find at least one multiplier on nearly every machine. At least with live poker, the action is more consistent.
Quote: HoodstarSo I'm in AC. What I've noticed is if I look during prime time there are a lot of good opportunities. But usually I only look after I end my poker session around 3-4am so perhaps the good opportunities are either already cleared out by then. Also will check in afternoon after I wake up and about to leave the casino:
But yes in general I consider that a good find. Not uncommon for me to clear an entire row of UX machines and not find one multiplier so probably going to give it up soon. Losing money every minute i don't play poker anyway during prime hours.
3 to 4am is definitely too late, even in Vegas. In my area, 10p-12a is pretty good. Hell, even earlier in the day with the retirees. I'm a youngster with VP at 35...lol
If you can't find one multiplier in a bank, I'd hang it up. I don't look much in Vegas either because SO many are looking. When I go to a Vegas casino's VP section, I find someone else looking a majority of the time.
Quote: tringlomane...I don't look much in Vegas either because SO many are looking. When I go to a Vegas casino's VP section, I find someone else looking a majority of the time.
The last trip back in June, I only saw two people looking. One at E.C. and the other at Harrah's.
Quote: tringlomane$50/hr is not sustainable from UX pretty much everywhere. Otherwise, I'd be driving to my local a LOT more often to do it. lol And the other thing about UX is, sometimes, you won't be able to constantly find opportunities because sometimes the vultures pick them off faster than they get created (sounds like you might be running into that issue). A "good" place is when you find at least one multiplier on nearly every machine. At least with live poker, the action is more consistent.
3 to 4am is definitely too late, even in Vegas. In my area, 10p-12a is pretty good. Hell, even earlier in the day with the retirees. I'm a youngster with VP at 35...lol
If you can't find one multiplier in a bank, I'd hang it up. I don't look much in Vegas either because SO many are looking. When I go to a Vegas casino's VP section, I find someone else looking a majority of the time.
Thanks for the response. For what it's worth, when I did look during the middle of when I usually play poker I found a LOT more multipliers then. On nickels I was finding 3+ multipliers on every game and then some scattered sporadically on .25 or higher.
Problem is I have a hard time pulling myself from the juicy poker games! Maybe one of these weekends I'll do a UX experiment during prime time and keep track of my EV from machine to machine to try and figure out a reasonable average.
Quote: HoodstarThanks for the response. For what it's worth, when I did look during the middle of when I usually play poker I found a LOT more multipliers then. On nickels I was finding 3+ multipliers on every game and then some scattered sporadically on .25 or higher.
Problem is I have a hard time pulling myself from the juicy poker games! Maybe one of these weekends I'll do a UX experiment during prime time and keep track of my EV from machine to machine to try and figure out a reasonable average.
From what I understand based on my connections, in AC you CANNOT in any way shape or form, eclipse $15/hr out there, supposedly there's just too much competition. Personally I've never been and I'd LIKE to know, simply because I've got a team who would be willing to relocate if we found a better "place" to harvest from, but I heard this information from a pretty trustworthy guy.
As far as poker is concerned, what might an "average" player truly make at a 2-5 game? Does he always make money every time? Is it consistent or streaky?
I thought about it more and more... Then I realized... The only way a multiplier could be left would be if someone won a hand and then cashed out. The majority of the time if someone is playing a multi line machine they play every credit even if it is one credit per line or even a single line.
The only time this will work is if someone needs a couple of bucks so badly they won't play off any small win.
Waste of time this is I believe.
Quote: BadBeet...Waste of time this is I believe.
It is. You should never do it. Best to just play Megabucks.
Quote: BadBeetI used to think this was clever... Until one night I was playing and saw people all night walk up to a Ultimate X machine looking through every game to find nothing...
I thought about it more and more... Then I realized... The only way a multiplier could be left would be if someone won a hand and then cashed out. The majority of the time if someone is playing a multi line machine they play every credit even if it is one credit per line or even a single line.
The only time this will work is if someone needs a couple of bucks so badly they won't play off any small win.
Waste of time this is I believe.
And this is absolutely true MOST of the time. The part you're leaving out, is where they get frustrated midway through their trip's BR, switch games, get shafted on a hand and only leave behind a few 2x or 3x's, and switch back to the prior game. That's a very, very common thing to have happen. Also, a much more common thing to have happen is that someone get dealt something like a straight after they get dealt a flush or something, and they walk away with a "big win" and leave the machine loaded with 8x's for a guy like me to get completely blanked on, because that's just how the game operates sometimes lol.
Quote: BadBeetIf you hit one hand that has a 8X you will most likely have enough for a full play. Most people don't walk way from that.
That's not even remotely true - I have found 12x on all lines before
Good for you!
Management will readily deactivate player cards, take away your ability to earn comp dollars (even in poker), and downgrade you from Black Label to Red Label for vulturing or any kind of machine advantage play (also of course for card counting, edge sorting).
Leave the Ultimate X/Rock Around the Clock/Must Hits/etc. hustling to the regulars such as "Syracuse" Chris T. (who has $2.7 million in lifetime tournament cashes and now hustles full-time) and former taxi driver C. Reslock, etc.
Exoter175: An "average" winning player might beat that particular $2/$5 ($100-$500 buy-in) game for 5bb/hour, or $25. Talented players can win upwards of 10bb/hour or even 15bb/hour with excellent game selection in deepstack games (example: Midnight Cowboy on 2+2). From the PokerJournals and Poker Session Loggers I've seen, a winning player will have 60-75% sessions in the black.
Quote: BadBeetMost people don't walk way from that.
There are a lot of casual players who aren't really sure about the game but want to try it out.
Just a month ago, some lady was fascinated by the idea of multi-line video poker when she saw me playing it. (She had a ridiculous amount of fun playing STP for the first time, as I talked her through it.)
You don't need most of the players leaving multipliers to make it worth doing a little looking for them... especially if you can look quickly.
Quote: chaunceyb3Hoodstar: I assume you play $2/$5 at the AC casino owned by Boyd Gaming. I would leave the Ultimate X (or any advantage play) alone at that property and realize your win rate at poker.
Management will readily deactivate player cards, take away your ability to earn comp dollars (even in poker), and downgrade you from Black Label to Red Label for vulturing or any kind of machine advantage play (also of course for card counting, edge sorting).
Leave the Ultimate X/Rock Around the Clock/Must Hits/etc. hustling to the regulars such as "Syracuse" Chris T. (who has $2.7 million in lifetime tournament cashes and now hustles full-time) and former taxi driver C. Reslock, etc.
Exoter175: An "average" winning player might beat that particular $2/$5 ($100-$500 buy-in) game for 5bb/hour, or $25. Talented players can win upwards of 10bb/hour or even 15bb/hour with excellent game selection in deepstack games (example: Midnight Cowboy on 2+2). From the PokerJournals and Poker Session Loggers I've seen, a winning player will have 60-75% sessions in the black.
Going to PM you if you don't mind.
Thanks.
Quote: Ibeatyouracesdeleted
indeed -- maybe the no-edit policy has another reason, PERHAPS?
I have been known to remove every message I have ever written from a forum that I am unhappy with.
https://forum.arcadecontrols.com/index.php?topic=61272.0
Monetizing is hard.
If I'm playing UX and for whatever reason leave a 7x multiplier (or any multiplier) on the machine - who cares? As a player - sure, I might need to run to the ATM to get a little more cash to use that multiplier. But, I would think I would leave a drink, or a tilted chair, or my players card in the machine while I ran to the ATM would be sufficient sign that I intended to return.
If no such sign exists, how is anyone to know that the machine is reserved? And if no one can play on it until that person returns, it might be left there for a week until payday.
My guess is, I have missed some pertinent detail, or have completely missed the mark on what is meant by the term "vulturing". Could someone kindly elaborate?
Quote: BadBeetThat is a once in a lifetime find...
Good for you!
False. I've gotten onto loaded up 12x's several times. And I never been much of a vulture-er.
I'll hop on this bandwagon... I've found 12x's a couple times and I've really only been vulturing for a couple years.Quote: RSFalse. I've gotten onto loaded up 12x's several times. And I never been much of a vulture-er.
Quote: BadBeetThat is a once in a lifetime find...
Good for you!
More like once a month or so.
Quote: Exoter175You can also make, way, way less if you're getting blanked.
Like this?
:(
*cries*
I couldn't look at this image and not do the math... Assuming 9-5 JoB game (98.5% HE).Quote: 100xOddsLike this?
:(
EV Hand 1 = (AmountBet)*(HouseEdge)*11 = (2.50)*(.985)*11 = (2.46)*11 = $27.09
EV Hand 2 = (AmountBet)*(HouseEdge)*11 = (2.50)*(.985)*11 = (2.46)*11 = $27.09
EV Hand 3 = (AmountBet)*(HouseEdge)*11 = (2.50)*(.985)*11 = (2.46)*11 = $27.09
So you bet a total of $7.50 and expected to win $81.26... just a good old 1,083.5% edge.
Why would you show me this image? It makes me want to cry...
