Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15308
January 19th, 2014 at 2:02:57 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

Funny, since you mentioned it and from reading previous posts, I actually DO believe you have a crappy job....and that you believe it too. So congrats for a good call.



Yeah, when I compare myself to some of the AP's, lawyers, doctors and gambling experts that post on here, when I compare myself to an unemployed person, though, I'm doing alright.

I actually make slightly above average money, nationally speaking, but emphasis on slightly.

That having been said, I also don't make a habit out of disrespecting owners of hotels or General Managers of resort hotels and recognize when someone else in my profession knows their shit better than I do, learning from those people and listening to what they have to say, maybe you should consider doing the same.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 271
January 19th, 2014 at 2:04:50 PM permalink
Quote: gpac1377

Let's compare to the Wizard's subject line: "It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."

So tournamentking appears to be advocating the polar opposite of the Wizard's philosophy. It's possible tk didn't mean what he said, but tk's overall "body of work" here on the forum is very muddled, and the tone is often unnecessarily adversarial, IMO.



Close. But I believe wizard is only talking about those positive situations the casinos knowingly and freely offer to all the ap's who chase that type of thing. It doesn't apply to what I mostly do as I go after unknown ev progressives. So yes, you are very close in that assessment.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
January 19th, 2014 at 2:24:35 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

Lottery winners have nothing to do with successful gambling approaches.



Exactly, this is my point. A lottery is a perfect example of a big win.

Quote:

By your logic, players like B. Dancer who talk about hitting big winners all the time, are losers. Go back and visit that.



No, I said that most big wins are by losing players. Not all big wins. Of course anyone who plays a lot will have a lot of big wins whether they are a winning player or not. Bob Dancer is just as likely to get a dealt royal flush on a particular hand of 100-play VP as anyone else is. Bob will get lots of them because he plays lots.

Anyway, if you read or listen to Bob and the main thing that you get out of it is stories of big wins, you are totally missing the point. Everything Bob writes or talks about is about playing when you have an edge (sometimes a tiny one)


Quote:

I'm no fan of high variance, but contrary to the resident PhD. here in winning, no one ever knows what the return on the slot machine they play is. They can only guess from various bits of information, then approximate after that. There's nothing truly "ap" about that, other than to make themselves feel better about chasing the progressive.



There are definitely times when you know that some slots are positive. PAR sheets have been leaked, for example.

Also, you don't necessarily need to be 100% sure, if you account for that properly. The likelihood of the game being positive can be included as a random variable in your analysis, just like anything else (note the spike in variance though!)
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 271
January 19th, 2014 at 3:07:33 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Exactly, this is my point. A lottery is a perfect example of a big win.

No, I said that most big wins are by losing players. Not all big wins. Of course anyone who plays a lot will have a lot of big wins whether they are a winning player or not. Bob Dancer is just as likely to get a dealt royal flush on a particular hand of 100-play VP as anyone else is. Bob will get lots of them because he plays lots.

Anyway, if you read or listen to Bob and the main thing that you get out of it is stories of big wins, you are totally missing the point. Everything Bob writes or talks about is about playing when you have an edge (sometimes a tiny one)

There are definitely times when you know that some slots are positive. PAR sheets have been leaked, for example.

Also, you don't necessarily need to be 100% sure, if you account for that properly. The likelihood of the game being positive can be included as a random variable in your analysis, just like anything else (note the spike in variance though!)



Your analysis of losers/Dancer and his big wins is a slippery slope. I could make the same converse argument.

There is NEVER a time when you absolutely know a slot progressive is positive. From my understanding, video poker can be analyzed to the exact fraction because the pay table is posted and it pays only according to that. But nothing is known about slots, given an employee's word, PAR sheets that can be believed or not, or even via the word from someone like Dancer, who's written about some way "knowing" the inside scoop on a slot's payout. Everyone here seems to hold actual EV percentage claims to a very high mathematical standard. Therein lies my point. There is no absolute mathematics when it comes to slots, only "in the vicinity". That's not good enough for a true slots ap, and it should not be good enough for you either.
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 271
January 19th, 2014 at 3:22:18 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Yeah, when I compare myself to some of the AP's, lawyers, doctors and gambling experts that post on here, when I compare myself to an unemployed person, though, I'm doing alright.

I actually make slightly above average money, nationally speaking, but emphasis on slightly.

That having been said, I also don't make a habit out of disrespecting owners of hotels or General Managers of resort hotels and recognize when someone else in my profession knows their shit better than I do, learning from those people and listening to what they have to say, maybe you should consider doing the same.



You'll do fine going forward. You're still young, and if Obama doesn't ruin your life and livelihood like he's already done for so many in your bracket, there's a lot of opportunity that still awaits.

You shouldn't be having a problem with my outspoken style in the face of all the supposed highly educated others here. No one NEEDS anyone to agree with them, unless those who argue and disagree are insecure. But I really DO have a nicer car than probably all of them, and I am a heretofore successful gambler. Those are what's important to me, not using education or perceived intellect to gather the good 'ol boys club against an "outsider". As I said, I know the math in gambling, and it does not get you to the end of the line in progressive slots. Anyone interested in gaming should be able to see that.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 154
  • Posts: 20272
January 19th, 2014 at 3:42:46 PM permalink
TK i never asked you to divulge any of your current plays, I just asked for you to explain ANYTHING that would give anyone here a reason to believe you know anything about AP slots. Give a good example, even if its a theoretical one. Include some estimated math.

So now you think there is a Boys club? If not wanting to be on the Fools club automatically enrolls you into the Boys club, well then the boys club it is.


TK you said: I'll take the axel, etc. approach here: WTF..... You are the one, that originally claimed anything can be faked. I just threw it back in your face. You seem to get things twisted and forget things you have said now you are wildly flailing.

We ask for proof when you cant supply any math, situations, witnesses, references or logic to anything you are saying.

Your breath of fresh air secret's....are not new and not secrets. People have been guessing when things are going to hit because they are "DUE" and have never been that high since the beginning of slots. Go back and read, You already confirmed your "system" to us. I know its hard to keep all the Bullshit str8 when you really have nothing but guessing crackpot theories to work with.

TK You keep talking proof, WHAT PROOF DO YOU WANT? What will be enough for you? What ever that is fine, then we can set a standard, unless you come up with something totally crazy. I can provide this to you. I would expect you or anyone you use as an example use the same standard when making such claims.

Since I have already excepted your claim of a big jackpot(again I believe you) I would love to see a posted up Tax form and details of the Jackpot so we can all officially congratulate you. Perhaps you can tape it to the window of this car you are talking about.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15308
January 19th, 2014 at 3:49:33 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking



There is NEVER a time when you absolutely know a slot progressive is positive.



The overall Expected Return and Progressive Probabilities are available for Quick Hits Platinum, for one example, which is all anyone needs to know whether or not one is at an advantage. There are five different ER settings for each machine, so you could assume the lowest, if you wanted to.

Have you signed up for any Player's Club cards yet? I heard some casinos give Free Play just for signing up. There are some crazy AP's who think that the possibility of winning something while risking nothing is +ER, I don't know whether or not you buy into that, though.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 133
  • Posts: 15308
January 19th, 2014 at 3:51:59 PM permalink
Quote: tournamentking

But I really DO have a nicer car than probably all of them, and I am a heretofore successful gambler.



There's probably a former welfare recipient somewhere who hit the Powerball and has a nicer house than me, the Hell's your point?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 271
January 19th, 2014 at 5:41:11 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The overall Expected Return and Progressive Probabilities are available for Quick Hits Platinum, for one example, which is all anyone needs to know whether or not one is at an advantage. There are five different ER settings for each machine, so you could assume the lowest, if you wanted to.

Have you signed up for any Player's Club cards yet? I heard some casinos give Free Play just for signing up. There are some crazy AP's who think that the possibility of winning something while risking nothing is +ER, I don't know whether or not you buy into that, though.



I'm not familiar with Quick Hits Platinum? Doesn't matter though. You should never believe casino information on slots.

I do get free play everywhere, and it's a much greater % than what the vp players get.

I mentioned the car thing in jest, although I am addicted to the silly thing.
tournamentking
tournamentking
Joined: Nov 22, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 271
January 19th, 2014 at 5:52:15 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

TK i never asked you to divulge any of your current plays, I just asked for you to explain ANYTHING that would give anyone here a reason to believe you know anything about AP slots. Give a good example, even if its a theoretical one. Include some estimated math.

So now you think there is a Boys club? If not wanting to be on the Fools club automatically enrolls you into the Boys club, well then the boys club it is.


TK you said: I'll take the axel, etc. approach here: WTF..... You are the one, that originally claimed anything can be faked. I just threw it back in your face. You seem to get things twisted and forget things you have said now you are wildly flailing.

We ask for proof when you cant supply any math, situations, witnesses, references or logic to anything you are saying.

Your breath of fresh air secret's....are not new and not secrets. People have been guessing when things are going to hit because they are "DUE" and have never been that high since the beginning of slots. Go back and read, You already confirmed your "system" to us. I know its hard to keep all the Bullshit str8 when you really have nothing but guessing crackpot theories to work with.

TK You keep talking proof, WHAT PROOF DO YOU WANT? What will be enough for you? What ever that is fine, then we can set a standard, unless you come up with something totally crazy. I can provide this to you. I would expect you or anyone you use as an example use the same standard when making such claims.

Since I have already excepted your claim of a big jackpot(again I believe you) I would love to see a posted up Tax form and details of the Jackpot so we can all officially congratulate you. Perhaps you can tape it to the window of this car you are talking about.



Oh axel, now I've got you scrambling around in circles again. My apologies.

I have no pressing interest in releasing any of my so-called secrets here. I accept your skepticism.

You act surprised at the reference to your disbelief system when you are the one who went berserk over the RS win someone posted and I brought up. I'm happy you believe me about my big win, but I only keep records from the past 3 years. I wouldn't post it anyway even if I knew how. As Hillary says: "What difference does it make now?"

  • Jump to: