Is this a good payout table for jacks or better?
Royal-Flush 250 : 1
Straight-Flush 50 : 1
Four of a Kind 30 : 1
Full-House 20 : 1
Flush 10 : 1
Straight 5 : 1
Three of a Kind 3 : 1
Two Pairs 2 : 1
Jacks or Better 1 : 1
Where is this at? (PM ME) is it online or some Indian casino? Its very unrealistic, unless I'm missing something. I have a feeling you are.Quote: translucentzAlso what is the expected return? Thanks!
Royal-Flush 250 : 1
Straight-Flush 50 : 1
Four of a Kind 30 : 1
Full-House 20 : 1
Flush 10 : 1
Straight 5 : 1
Three of a Kind 3 : 1
Two Pairs 2 : 1
Jacks or Better 1 : 1
If I'm reading it right. the full house would be paying 100 coins with 5 coins bet and a flush would be paying 50. I don't have to run it, to know its well over 115% and over $100 an HR just on .25
So lets say you find this in a legitimate casino, on a $100 machine, you must play 5 coins. Just assume they messed up somehow. You have a medium bankroll, I don't know, lest say 40K do you risk everything on it? You can't call for partners or backersQuote: Ibeatyouraces120.57%
Quote: AxelWolfSo lets say you find this in a legitimate casino, on a $100 machine, you must play 5 coins. Just assume they messed up somehow. You have a medium bankroll, I don't know, lest say 40K do you risk everything on it? You can't call for partners or backers
Ok, I've written up and deleted many different answers to this question. It depends on so many things...
1. How easily replaceable is your bankroll? To quantify this -- at what rate can you accumulate money through non-gambling means (ie, a means where no bankroll is required)? My answer is very different if I can save $20k/month from my day job than if gambling is my only form of income and a busted bankroll means that I will be in a dire financial situation (unable to eat, pay rent, etc) at some point in the near future. I'm trying to quantify what I really lose here if I lose -- not all $40k's are created equal.
2. What other opportunities are available? If I give up this 20% edge, is there a game with a 15% edge waiting for me at lower stakes? Or is the next best thing a game with a 0.5% edge?
3. How long do I expect this opportunity (or a similarly-valued opportunity) to last? Will it be gone tomorrow? Next week? Next year?
4. What's the variance? (yes, I could figure this out myself, but I'm too lazy). The Wizard's page suggests that something in the range of 20-25 square bets is "normal" for video poker.
That's just the thing you have no clue how long it will last.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceOk, I've written up and deleted many different answers to this question. It depends on so many things...
1. How easily replaceable is your bankroll? To quantify this -- at what rate can you accumulate money through non-gambling means (ie, a means where no bankroll is required)? My answer is very different if I can save $20k/month from my day job than if gambling is my only form of income and a busted bankroll means that I will be in a dire financial situation (unable to eat, pay rent, etc) at some point in the near future. I'm trying to quantify what I really lose here if I lose -- not all $40k's are created equal.
2. What other opportunities are available? If I give up this 20% edge, is there a game with a 15% edge waiting for me at lower stakes? Or is the next best thing a game with a 0.5% edge?
3. How long do I expect this opportunity (or a similarly-valued opportunity) to last? Will it be gone tomorrow? Next week? Next year?
4. What's the variance? (yes, I could figure this out myself, but I'm too lazy). The Wizard's page suggests that something in the range of 20-25 square bets is "normal" for video poker.
You don't have a real job
If you went broke you would have to find a way to get back in action, then start grinding it back it wont be easy. assume the opportunities are all the same as they are today. I guess what i'm saying, if you try and fail your kinda F$%^ed.
I think I go for it. 20% on VP is fairly safe.
Quote: AxelWolfSo lets say you find this in a legitimate casino, on a $100 machine, you must play 5 coins. Just assume they messed up somehow. You have a medium bankroll, I don't know, lest say 40K do you risk everything on it? You can't call for partners or backers
To bad you put that stipulation "you must play 5 coins" in there. With a 40K bankroll this game would be a short coin special starting out. Assuming 120.57% is correct then the royal and the straight flush wouldn't amount to more than a few percent of the payback. You would probably be at 118% just up through the four of a kind. And the four of a kind wouldn't represent more than 7% of the payback. Which means, shortcoining, you would have 11% the best of it just up through the full house. So a person could start out betting one ($100) or two coins ($200) and Kelly bet until they get up to the five coin bet.
But if I had to start out betting five coins ($500) I would only have an 80 bet bankroll to start with. I'm not all that boned up on RoR. But I would have to think that a player would stand a very good chance of getting through the window anyway.
If I didn't want to assume the risk then I would offer up the play to a bigger bankrolled player but only if he/she makes me a full partner (half the win), even though I only have 40K. Once I explain the play to them I think the opportunity for them would be to big to refuse me half the money.
Yes I fireguard someone like you, would quickly realize playing 5 coins would be the way to go, if you were short on bankroll. That's why I also said you cant get backed.Quote: mickeycrimmTo bad you put that stipulation "you must play 5 coins" in there. With a 40K bankroll this game would be a short coin special starting out. Assuming 120.57% is correct then the royal and the straight flush wouldn't amount to more than a few percent of the payback. You would probably be at 118% just up through the four of a kind. And the four of a kind wouldn't represent more than 7% of the payback. Which means, shortcoining, you would have 11% the best of it just up through the full house. So a person could start out betting one ($100) or two coins ($200) and Kelly bet until they get up to the five coin bet.
Buy if I had to start out betting five coins ($500) I would only have an 80 bet bankroll to start with. I'm not all that boned up on RoR. But I would have to think that a player would stand a very good chance of getting through the window anyway.
If I didn't want to assume the risk then I would offer up the play to a bigger bankrolled player but only if he/she makes me a full partner (half the win), even though I only have 40K. Once I explain the play to them I think the opportunity for them would be to big to refuse me half the money.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's just the thing you have no clue how long it will last.
You don't have a real job
If you went broke you would have to find a way to get back in action, then start grinding it back it wont be easy. assume the opportunities are all the same as they are today. I guess what i'm saying, if you try and fail your kinda F$%^ed.
I think I go for it. 20% on VP is fairly safe.
Ok, then, let's assume that the $40k is very important to you -- you can't easily get it back.
Your edge is 20%. Let's say that the variance is 20 square bets (again, too lazy to calculate it -- I'm making a very optimistic assumption). Under these conditions the optimal bet is .2/20 = 1% of your bankroll. In other words, with a $40k bankroll, betting $400 per hand would be optimal. You need to bet $500 per hand. Not perfect, but I think it's ok to overbet a little bit here. For example, betting 1.5x optimal has the same long-term growth as betting 0.5x optimal, which is probably still better than any other opportunity you will find. You certainly don't want to go over 2x optimal (that has negative long-term growth) and you probably don't want to get all the way up to it either (you can probably find a safe play with a small edge that is better than this risky play at 2x optimal).
So the bottom line is that I'm NEVER going to bet more than 2% of my bankroll on a single bet in this game. That means that I'm going to quit before (not when) my bankroll hits $25k. Realistically, I'm probably going to "take a shot" with $10k of my $40k bankroll. If I lose the $10k, I quit with a $30k bankroll and live to fight another day.
Note that if the variance was 25 square bets then I am not playing, since I am already very close to 2x optimal.
Basically, just always make decisions that maximize E(log(bankroll)). That will give you the most money in the long term.
http://www.lucky-lucas.com/casinogames.html
Wizard: is this blacklist-worthy?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWow, that is really dirty. Offering you some fake paytable so you win when playing for play money, so they can trick you into thinking that you are a winning player. Wizard: is this blacklist-worthy?
My thoughts, exactly. It's a ploy to reel in the novices.
Personally, this is what I don't like about video poker. It's all based on percentages over or under 100%, as if the machine knows who you are and it's time to cooperate when you sit down so you can get your theoretical from it.
Quote: tournamentkingReel in the novices? There's some pretty knowledgeable people here getting all juicy over how to do this.
Yeah, when they thought it was for real money...
Quote:Personally, this is what I don't like about video poker. It's all based on percentages over or under 100%, as if the machine knows who you are and it's time to cooperate when you sit down so you can get your theoretical from it.
Huh?
Quote: tournamentking
Personally, this is what I don't like about video poker. It's all based on percentages over or under 100%, as if the machine knows who you are and it's time to cooperate when you sit down so you can get your theoretical from it.
I don't get what this means? All AP gambling is about a return over 100%. Do you routinely play machines under 100% because if you do you're doing it wrong.
Quote: tournamentkingPersonally, this is what I don't like about video poker. It's all based on percentages over or under 100%, as if the machine knows who you are and it's time to cooperate when you sit down so you can get your theoretical from it.
Didn't you claim to be an AP in another thread? And then you post this?????
Quote: tournamentkingReel in the novices? There's some pretty knowledgeable people here getting all juicy over how to do this.
If it was real money I would be all over it, and so would every other AP. What we didn't know when the OP put up the payscale was it was for play money at an online site. The site it is on is baiting novice gamblers, letting them get the feel of winning, and hoping to switch them to real money where they have no chance.
Quote: Beethoven9thDidn't you claim to be an AP in another thread? And then you post this?????
I have, but only for slot progressives as I become aware of them. I do get confused over what vp ap is all about at times. For instance, if there's a 105% play at some legit online casino, just because the player jumps on it for a dozen hours doesn't mean he'll recognize a 5% upside when he quits it, right? Now if he played this thing for 10000 hours, I could understand because he'll near game ev the more he plays. But for a spurt? Why even bother? I notice and am told by some vp friends that most people lose when they play, good pay table or not.
Quote: tournamentkingI have, but only for slot progressives as I become aware of them. I do get confused over what vp ap is all about at times. For instance, if there's a 105% play at some legit online casino, just because the player jumps on it for a dozen hours doesn't mean he'll recognize a 5% upside when he quits it, right? Now if he played this thing for 10000 hours, I could understand because he'll near game ev the more he plays. But for a spurt? Why even bother? I notice and am told by some vp friends that most people lose when they play, good pay table or not.
He will play at an advantage for 10,000 hours, even if he does it at different times, even if he does it at different machines, even if he does it in different casinos, States, countries, whatever...he will play for 10,000+ hours, that's the point.
I want to know what sort of AP you do specifically in which the player is virtually guaranteed to win in every single session.
Quote: Mission146He will play at an advantage for 10,000 hours, even if he does it at different times, even if he does it at different machines, even if he does it in different casinos, States, countries, whatever...he will play for 10,000+ hours, that's the point.
I want to know what sort of AP you do specifically in which the player is virtually guaranteed to win in every single session.
Are you saying casinos know they are giving away ev and have a loser on their hands, but do it anyway? I just don't get the point about where he is playing for the % advantage no matter where or when. Say I jumped on the aforementioned 105% play online for 12 hours. If I lose, does that mean the next say 103% play I find is a sure winner that'll help the vp ap's lifetime of play and just take over to get the % up? How can machines possibly know where you're at in your career? I know the math and what it says. But trusting the vp machines to cooperate in this way? No thank you!
My style of slots ap play is no guarantee, and in fact, did you see where I recently came back from Wendover $4800 lighter? I never did get the mystique about the type of vp play you're talking about, and combined with what my friends have told me about their results from doing that, it turned me away and towards slots.
YES!! Duh!Quote: tournamentkingAre you saying casinos know they are giving away ev and have a loser on their hands, but do it anyway?
That's why AP's play it!
Quote: tournamentkingAre you saying casinos know they are giving away ev and have a loser on their hands, but do it anyway? I just don't get the point about where he is playing for the % advantage no matter where or when. Say I jumped on the aforementioned 105% play online for 12 hours. If I lose, does that mean the next say 103% play I find is a sure winner that'll help the vp ap's lifetime of play and just take over to get the % up? How can machines possibly know where you're at in your career? I know the math and what it says. But trusting the vp machines to cooperate in this way? No thank you!
Yes. For a low-limit example, The D has a 101.6% Loose Deuces game with a $0.25 Max Bet, every time I play a hand (assuming Optimal Strategy) they are theoretically giving me .25 * .016 = .004 which means they are giving me .004 * 1000 = $4.00, theoretically, for every 1,000 hands I play.
The thing to keep in mind is that different machines/games have different levels of Variance, so in the short run, the casino could well end up paying me in excess of $4.00 for every 1,000 hands I play, or I could end up paying them for every 1,000 hands I play.
Over the course of enough hands, however, I would become increasingly certain to see a profit...and over perhaps millions of hands...I would get extremely close to that $4.00 exactly.
This is basically what the AP does, sometimes he may play for +5%, sometimes it may be for +10%, sometimes it may be for +2%, but in the long run, as long as the AP consistently plays with an advantage and has a bankroll that can sustain short-term swings, he will make money.
It doesn't matter if it is Video Poker, Slots, Video Keno, Card-Counting (assuming a beatable game), Hole-Carding, Shuffle-Tracking, Edge-Sorting, or anything else, as long as the AP is always playing with a bona fide advantage and has that bankroll, he will eventually profit.
It's the same reason that every player who plays at a negative expectation will eventually lose everything if he plays long enough.
Quote:My style of slots ap play is no guarantee, and in fact, did you see where I recently came back from Wendover $4800 lighter? I never did get the mystique about the type of vp play you're talking about, and combined with what my friends have told me about their results from doing that, it turned me away and towards slots.
That's fine, then you know exactly what I am talking about. You play the slots when you are at an advantage, and the casino is giving you the opportunity to have the EV when they put a Progressive out there and the Progressive(s) reach a level at which the machine is paying 100%+ overall. There are also plays involving Wilds, Guaranteed Bonus Games and things of that nature, as I am sure you know. It doesn't mean you're going to win every time, but if you play it enough at 100+%, you will win eventually.
The nice thing about advantage VP is that they know where to find their machines after a time, so they can just sit there and do that, especially if it doesn't involve some kind of Progressive. You must admit, slot AP's put in a lot of footwork, go to a casino to check on, perhaps, fifty machines that are scattered to the four winds inside of that building to occasionally find nothing or to find one play for which the EV might buy you a cheeseburger. I could see why VP players might not want to do that.
I don't know that I could do slots professionally, if I were inclined to be a professional AP at all. Not exclusively. AP slots would definitely be part of my repertoire, because it already is, and I am not an AP though I recognize and play AP plays, but I think I would learn more VP games and try to develop that. Slots AP is lots of looking and very little finding, in my opinion. It's still fun, though, especially when you don't do it for a living because it just makes it more of a good time to find a nice play.
Quote: IbeatyouracesCard counters in blackjack play with less of an advantage than a 105% return VP game and yet they take many thousands from casinos year round.
I understand that. But don't casinos walk them out if they are suspected of counting? That seems to be directly opposite with the vp aps. I know people say there's backoffs and 86ings here and there that of course can't be verified (but I find some truth in it), but a good measuring stick to me would be Mr. Dancer. He not only tells about continually going back to the same places, he writes publicly about it too. This confuses me.
Quote: Mission146Yes. For a low-limit example, The D has a 101.6% Loose Deuces game with a $0.25 Max Bet, every time I play a hand (assuming Optimal Strategy) they are theoretically giving me .25 * .016 = .004 which means they are giving me .004 * 1000 = $4.00, theoretically, for every 1,000 hands I play.
The thing to keep in mind is that different machines/games have different levels of Variance, so in the short run, the casino could well end up paying me in excess of $4.00 for every 1,000 hands I play, or I could end up paying them for every 1,000 hands I play.
Over the course of enough hands, however, I would become increasingly certain to see a profit...and over perhaps millions of hands...I would get extremely close to that $4.00 exactly.
This is basically what the AP does, sometimes he may play for +5%, sometimes it may be for +10%, sometimes it may be for +2%, but in the long run, as long as the AP consistently plays with an advantage and has a bankroll that can sustain short-term swings, he will make money.
It doesn't matter if it is Video Poker, Slots, Video Keno, Card-Counting (assuming a beatable game), Hole-Carding, Shuffle-Tracking, Edge-Sorting, or anything else, as long as the AP is always playing with a bona fide advantage and has that bankroll, he will eventually profit.
It's the same reason that every player who plays at a negative expectation will eventually lose everything if he plays long enough.
That's fine, then you know exactly what I am talking about. You play the slots when you are at an advantage, and the casino is giving you the opportunity to have the EV when they put a Progressive out there and the Progressive(s) reach a level at which the machine is paying 100%+ overall. There are also plays involving Wilds, Guaranteed Bonus Games and things of that nature, as I am sure you know. It doesn't mean you're going to win every time, but if you play it enough at 100+%, you will win eventually.
The nice thing about advantage VP is that they know where to find their machines after a time, so they can just sit there and do that, especially if it doesn't involve some kind of Progressive. You must admit, slot AP's put in a lot of footwork, go to a casino to check on, perhaps, fifty machines that are scattered to the four winds inside of that building to occasionally find nothing or to find one play for which the EV might buy you a cheeseburger. I could see why VP players might not want to do that.
I don't know that I could do slots professionally, if I were inclined to be a professional AP at all. Not exclusively. AP slots would definitely be part of my repertoire, because it already is, and I am not an AP though I recognize and play AP plays, but I think I would learn more VP games and try to develop that. Slots AP is lots of looking and very little finding, in my opinion. It's still fun, though, especially when you don't do it for a living because it just makes it more of a good time to find a nice play.
Thank you for taking the time to explain. I either understand or agree with everything you wrote except for the point about playing the negative games. There's players who do win a lot on them (slots or vp or other minus situations) over time. It may be the exception rather than the rule though. But it does happen. I myself went on quite a nice, unexpected run on lower denomination slots that were minus plays when I first started this. In VP it seems it might even be easier to accomplish. Not sure about other games.
Has anyone verified the pay table in the real money mode on that 120% game? If not, I will do some research on the casino. If its not a 100% rip off joint, I will toss in a few hundred and play at a .25 level, I will know very quickly if its gaffed. I have to believe it is not the real pay table, because at 120%, you could play horrible and crush it. However, situations like this are not unheard of online.
Quote: tournamentkingI have, but only for slot progressives as I become aware of them. I do get confused over what vp ap is all about at times. For instance, if there's a 105% play at some legit online casino, just because the player jumps on it for a dozen hours doesn't mean he'll recognize a 5% upside when he quits it, right?
It depends on the paytable. If you give me a game like 12/8 Jacks or Better I'll pretty much book a win every day.
Quote: tournamentkingMy style of slots ap play is no guarantee, and in fact, did you see where I recently came back from Wendover $4800 lighter?
How were you able to quantify that you had an advantage on this Wendover slot progressive play?
Quote: MoosetonLol @ this thread. How anyone can claim to be an AP yet not understand the basics of it is just, for lack of a better term, amusing.
+1
He sneaks around and watches REAL slot AP's start playing, then he jumps on. Meanwhile the only reason the AP's are playing it is, because its 20x points cash back on slots, that you have to pre sign up for, that with the progressive, makes it a win Of course TK isn't using his card anyways.Quote: mickeycrimmHow were you able to quantify that you had an advantage on this Wendover slot progressive play?
Quote: AxelWolfHe sneaks around and watches REAL slot AP's start playing, then he jumps on. Meanwhile the only reason the AP's are playing it is, because its 20x points cash back on slots, that you have to pre sign up for, that with the progressive, makes it a win Of course TK isn't using his card anyways.
LMAO!
Quote: tournamentkingMy style of slots ap play is no guarantee, and in fact, did you see where I recently came back from Wendover $4800 lighter?.
A few more questions on this slot progressive play, TK.
1. How much did it cost per spin, $2, $3?
2. What was your total wager?
3. How many spins did you make?
4. Percentagewise, what did you get dropped for?
I have a faster car than anyone here.
Quote: mickeycrimmA few more questions on this slot progressive play, TK.
1. How much did it cost per spin, $2, $3?
2. What was your total wager?
3. How many spins did you make?
4. Percentagewise, what did you get dropped for?
TK, I'm not mad or jealous or any of that stuff you have in your mind. I just asked a few questions. So far you have avoided answering them.
Quote: tournamentkingOK I get it. Some of you people wake up in a bad mood and I'll bet it's because of bad gambling results. Make as many stupid statements as you want. I ask questions and those with conflicted lives that are probably devoid of everything meaningful, think they can intimidate me.
The problem is that you claim to be an advantage payer and then make statements that show a complete lack of understanding of advantage play or mathematics in general. It doesn't add up.
Quote:But I'm smiling because from what I see here, I much more than likely have more success at what I do than any of you.
I would believe that you are successful at what you do, as long as "what you do" is not gambling.
Quote:No wonder Dancer stays away, there's a disdain for successful people.
Bob Dancer is not high up on the list of gamblers who I respect, but I do believe that he gets the money. Try making the same statement to him about video poker and see what he says.
Quote:I have a faster car than anyone here.
Possibly. What do you drive? Do you track it? If so, at which tracks?
and my daddy can beat up your daddy.Quote: tournamentking
I have a faster car than anyone here.
Your car, your house, your wife, your shlong size or what you hit on slots has nothing to do with your knowledge of AP. YOU seriously know nothing about REAL slot AP. You basically already said, you watch for machines that are ready to hit because they are higher then you normally see. Or you use some machine dueness theory.
You have never said anything that makes any scene, when it comes to beating slots. You have a Rob Singer approach to slots.
Give us an example of something you play and why you play it. We REAL AP's can explained why and how we have an edge, You are just guessing.
I don't even need exact math, just something other then, the Jackpot is high, it must be ready to hit. Please tell do tell. If You are going to boast of being a slot AP then prove it. It's 100% apparent to me and others you are a wannabe. If I had to guess, you played a slot machine got lucky hit it, then you got lucky a few times after that, because of that, you think, you understand slots so now you think you are a slot AP.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe problem is that you claim to be an advantage payer and then make statements that show a complete lack of understanding of advantage play or mathematics in general. It doesn't add up.
Possibly. What do you drive? Do you track it? If so, at which tracks?
I've said several times that math has a part of my slots ap play but it is not the end all. I consider the rest of my effort, which I've explained also, paramount.
I drive a '12 Hennessey 800hp CTS-V. I don't take it to tracks.
Quote: AxelWolfYou have never said anything that makes any scene, when it comes to beating slots.
I have a feeling that TK was very interested in your AP opportunity that you offered in the other thread, but (for whatever reason) he didn't want to admit it. So instead of being forthright, he tried fishing for information by asking (silly) questions and pretending to be an AP himself, not knowing that it's quite obvious to everyone that he's not an AP at all.
Quote: AxelWolfand my daddy can beat up your daddy.
Your car, your house, your wife, your shlong size or what you hit on slots has nothing to do with your knowledge of AP. YOU seriously know nothing about REAL slot AP. You basically already said, you watch for machines that are ready to hit because they are higher then you normally see. Or you use some machine dueness theory.
You have never said anything that makes any scene, when it comes to beating slots. You have a Rob Singer approach to slots.
Give us an example of something you play and why you play it. We REAL AP's can explained why and how we have an edge, You are just guessing.
I don't even need exact math, just something other then, the Jackpot is high, it must be ready to hit. Please tell do tell. If You are going to boast of being a slot AP then prove it. It's 100% apparent to me and others you are a wannabe. If I had to guess, you played a slot machine got lucky hit it, then you got lucky a few times after that, because of that, you think, you understand slots so now you think you are a slot AP.
Axel, your method is better than mine, blah blah blah. You want to know my method yet you never read. You do know, naturally, that you claim to know it all but at the same time show amazing naivete' when you put out an all-points bulletin for aps to play your game for you. You also continue to display an inability to get that Singer $50000 jackpot off your mind, probably because he says he wins on machines you're afraid to play. I checked on that pay table. Not even close to 100%. No wonder these people bother you at night.
