Bankroll for VP

I know that video poker can exhibit a pretty substantial variance when playing, what is the optimal bank roll (relative to bet size) one should have to absorb this variance and actually end up with results close to theoretical?

I just spent $1400 and no royal on FPDW, so get ready.

Ouch, I'm sorry to hear that, what was the wager amount per hand?

Quarters

Quote: djatc

Quarters

aka $1.25/hand (I never assume non-regs assume you mean 5 units per hand.)

And that blows, hope it turns around soon!

Quote: gaming4tito

I know that video poker can exhibit a pretty substantial variance when playing, what is the optimal bank roll (relative to bet size) one should have to absorb this variance and actually end up with results close to theoretical?

And in terms of BR, it depends on the game you're playing. Most video poker games are negative, so the optimal move is not to play at all. :) The wizard has a page on bankroll considerations on video poker.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

Quote: tringlomane

aka $1.25/hand (I never assume non-regs assume you mean 5 units per hand.)

And that blows, hope it turns around soon!

Here is a photo of 10,000 sessions of 1 million FPDW hands played.
(can't locate the 1 million session one I ran, bummer)


Even after 1 million hands played still about 1 in 17, on average, will STILL be down to one degree or another.
Even with a large bankroll (this example was 50k) and
what seems like a lot of hands played by most, not all will turn a profit
and will need the cash back in order to have a chance to show a profit.
This shows the value of getting the best cash back you can play at.

Also, the max draw-down was actually twice the end value in the photo too. (about 28k ouch!)
(my other sim had that data, oh well, too much spring clean)

Even at 500k hands played, about 1 in 7 are still down playing a +EV game of FPDW.
Better make sure you use your players card every hand so it won't be this bad.
ev: 4,760.6
sd: 4,492.7
ev/sd = 0.855340005 <<<< this ratio, the higher the better, say over 3
one needs MORE trials to get that ratio that high

There has to be some losers even after 1 million hands played.
It is the law of large numbers
Hope is not any one here

Good Luck is still needed

And amazingly "advantage video poker players" will say there is no point using win goals and loss limits on positive expectation games... as if to say they always expect to win.

thanks for posting.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And amazingly "advantage video poker players" will say there is no point using win goals and loss limits on positive expectation games... as if to say they always expect to win.

thanks for posting.

Expectation is one thing, never 100% certainty.
Variance still controls a lifetime of play for the end result.

There is value in the win goals and loss limits IF it makes you have more fun playing, IMO.
How much value that is, is a player's determination.

Since each hand in VP is an independent and identically distributed event for the same game, unless one can prove it is not,
it matters not if all your hands played are sequential or not.
You have the same chance of getting 20 Royals in a row with 20 hands played in a row over a few minutes
or 1 hand played each year for 20 years.
of course, many will disagree with that statement because they do not understand IIDs in gambling.

Some say take the $$$ and run to come back again and play another day after a big win, (BIG is relative)
if it makes you feel better, IMO do it.
(It makes ME feel better and that is all that really matters)

I hit a Royal on a 5cent machine in Reno in 1999 and my policy was to quit right there, I never played off the hand, it was a hand pay.
Well, I did play it off this one time because the attendants were nice
and my wife asked also to play it off, OK
very next hand I was dealt 3 2s (FPDW) and I drew the 4th 2,
A Royal followed by 4 deuces.
I have never done it again, maybe I should.
Back to back Royals would be sweet

Good Luck

Alan, congrats on your BIG Royals recently.
I have never hit a $5 Royal after 30 years or so, 4 to the Royal more times than I can count. My streak continues.