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Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
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March 25th, 2013 at 2:50:44 PM permalink
I guess I`ve been sleeping,I wasn`t aware of the $2 max bet.Thanks
Don't teach an alligator how to swim.
Ardent1
Ardent1
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
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March 29th, 2013 at 12:07:34 AM permalink
People need to look at both the return and variance -- the RF at 500 cuts the variance by a sizable amount when compared to the standard 9/6 version.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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April 1st, 2013 at 6:59:03 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ardent1
Ardent1
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
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April 1st, 2013 at 11:41:58 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I just walked by a lady playing max coins (5) on one of these machine hoping for that $625 royal while instead she could be 25 feet over and go for $1000 no extra cost per hand, DO'H!



Don't be so quick to put her down.

I can share my situation with you. When my local casino has Multiplier days, the Annoying Parasites manifest themselves. They make a beeline to the best VP games like 8/5 Bonus or 9/7 DB in $1, where each game has a payback over 99%. I make a beeline to the 9/6-500 game. Why, because I get almost 1% in mailers (along with the multiplier day) since I am playing a game that has a much higher theo than the full-pay games.

I believe the casino executives set the 8/5 BP and 9/7 BP games as traps to ID the AP's. Since I'm not ID'ed as one of those dregs of the casino, I get the full benefits so I ended up making more than these AP's, other things being equal.

The irony of the situation is that the casino executives thought they were safe when they downgraded the 9/6 JOB to 500 from 800. Instead, it made it the best opportunity in the house. What I lose on the game, I make up more in comps and benefits because the casino thinks the 9/6-500 game can't be beat.

The moral of the post: Casinos rewards players based on the machine played; as a result, they create a bias -- penalizing those that play FP games while generously rewarding those that play the non-full pay games.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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April 2nd, 2013 at 5:38:33 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ardent1
Ardent1
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
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April 2nd, 2013 at 6:05:04 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I just walked by a lady playing max coins (5) on one of these machine hoping for that $625 royal while instead she could be 25 feet over and go for $1000 no extra cost per hand, DO'H!



Ibeatyouraces,

One more thing, and this one is a biggie. In the 9/6-500 JOB (in my neck of the woods), the game doesn't penalize the player for short-coin play. That is to say, the payback for the game is the same for a 1-coin or 5-coin wager. That also means the strategy is identical for 1-coin or 5-coin, i.e. only one strategy to learn as opposed to learning two separate and distinct strategies in the typical short-coin video poker game, respectively.

So why is the 1-coin play so special? Let's say you get a small amount in free play like $50 (for some people, a small amount might be $500). You have a choice of playing $0.25 9/6-800 JOB at max coins or $0.25 9/6-500 JOB at 1 coin. Since the denomination is the same, most AP would choose the 9/6-800 JOB over the 9/6-500 JOB because the former has a higher payback, other things being equal. Unfortunately, this is the important point lost to people like Ibeatyouraces.

While the 9/6-800 JOB has a 99.54% payback with a variance of 19.51, the 9/6-500 JOB has a lower payback of 98.88% (rounded) along with a much reduced variance of 8.90 (numbers are from WinPoker). On that $50 in free play, a 5-coin wager results in 40 games. However, on the same $50 in free play, a 1-coin wager results in 200 games. Unless the individual who bets 5-coins hits a full house or better (or wins a disproportionate amount of games), that player will not realize a return close to the 99.54% theoretical return. On the other hand, the 1-coin will most likely be much closer to his theoretical return MAINLY due to the Law of Large Numbers AND the fact the game has a low variance. For the 9/6-800 JOB player, about 18.8% of the return in based on hitting those rare hands of Full House or better, which is hard to do in 40 spins. In contrast, at 200 spins, the player is more likely to hit his fair share of Full Houses meaning he faces missing 7.48% of the return in rare hands like quads or better (please note since RF is 500, the RF contributes only 1.04% -- as opposed to 1.98% per RF at 800 -- to the total return).

If the player's objective is to maximize his conversion rate from free play to cold hard cash in one sitting, 1-coin 9/6-500 JOB might be the better choice. For those that are (extremely) risk adverse or those that are building a bankroll from free play, this 1-coin approach is many times the superior choice on risk-adjusted wealth maximization approach, respectively.

So why can't the player use the 1-coin approach on 9/6-250 JOB vs 1-coin on 9/6-500? (A) the player needs to learn two separate strategies and (B) the return is lower at 98.37% (vs. 98.88%). However, the offset is that the variance for 9/6-250 is even lower at 4.93. For some people, when the 9/6-500 JOB is not available, they might use the 1-coin approach on a 9/6-250 JOB game. Again, the Law of Large Numbers (due to 200 games as opposed to 40 games) along with a really, really low variance of 4.93 means one is much closer to reach his theoretical return than either 9/6-800 JOB (or 9/6-500 JOB), respectively.

Moral of the post, people like Ibeatyouraces should refrain from being smug. In Video Poker, you need to look at both the return and variance -- the lady playing 9/6-500 JOB may be giving up $375 in the RF, but she gains lower variance and more staying power, especially since the RF only accounts for about half the return. On a triple-net basis: (A) 1.98% less 1.04% is 0.94% pick-up on reduced RF effect, (B) 99.54% less 98.88% (rounded) is 0.66% loss from lower overall payback resulting in (C) 0.28% or 28 basis point extra staying power on a low variance game. For every $100 in coin, the lady is picking up about 28 cents in triple-net extra returns on non-RF hands for giving up that $375 per royal cycle. In plain English, lady is trading off payback for more playing timing, other things being equal.

The only DO'H that I now see is Ibeatyouraces smug post.
Ardent1
Ardent1
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
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April 2nd, 2013 at 6:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Then I suppose we ALL should play 6:5 bj for better comps and offers later. Bull!



Ibeatyouraces, that was a DUMB post.

There is a very small difference between 99.17% return on B/P and 98.88% (rounded) return on 9/6-500 JOB. We are talking 29 basis points difference on MUCH LOWER variance.

In contrast, there is a very large difference between 3:2 BJ and 6:5 BJ in that 6:5 BJ results in 139 basis points! (source: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/ ) with a very small reduction in variance.

(139 / 29) is a 4.79X difference.

Ibeatyouraces, using 5X argument is definitely BULL. I ain't buying it.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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April 2nd, 2013 at 8:13:53 AM permalink
[redacted]
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Ardent1
Ardent1
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
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April 3rd, 2013 at 2:33:00 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

You gotta stop making these kind of statements on the board if you want to stick around. You obviously have great video poker knowledge. But this isn't 2+2; there is some measure of civility here.



Telling people they make dumb (or smug) post is a form of civility. Attacking a post or their arguments is NOT a personal attack. Neither is pointing out factual, but unplesant history, of people who makes dumb posts.

teddys, you are either forgetful or a hypocrite. Learn to extend civility before you demand from others.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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April 4th, 2013 at 1:55:39 PM permalink
Quote: Ardent1


teddys, you are either forgetful or a hypocrite. Learn to extend civility before you demand from others.



I gave you a soft warning in another thread, so this will ensure you see it. This sort of disrespect is unwarranted and uncalled for and will not stand on a repeated basis.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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