Random Jacks or Better Fact
it is 21.5 times more likely to be dealt a Royal Flush than it is to be dealt a hand dictating drawing 5 new cards and receiving a Royal Flush on the draw?
I didn't know it was supposed to be sort of a puzzle...
The odds of being dealt a hand where the best play is to discard everything, and then receive a Royal Flush on the redraw, are approximately 1 in 13,970,585; compared to the odds of being dealt a Royal Flush to start with, which of course are 1 in 649,740.
Quote: JBWith proper strategy on single-hand 9/6 Jacks or Better, it is 21.5 times more likely to be dealt a Royal Flush than it is to receive a Royal Flush on the draw after discarding all 5 initial cards.
That is called a "throw away royal." I got one at the MGM once, playing the $1 100-play, playing either 26 or 39 hands; I don't remember.
this is trueQuote: IbeatyouracesThis is the only royal I have not received yet. I was dealt one on spin poker for 9 of them. Hit them holding 4,3,2 to a royal. Only once did I get one holding just one card but never after tossing all 5 yet. I guess Teddys has the knack for doing this since he did it for a second time recently.
Quote: JBCorrect. I intentionally worded it in an attempt to be tricky, but it's difficult to sneak anything past anyone here (that's a compliment).
The odds of being dealt a hand where the best play is to discard everything, and then receive a Royal Flush on the redraw, are approximately 1 in 13,970,585; compared to the odds of being dealt a Royal Flush to start with, which of course are 1 in 649,740.
why?
i would think the odds are less on a redraw since there are 5 less cards?
Quote: 100xOddswhy?
i would think the odds are less on a redraw since there are 5 less cards?
He is considering the probability that you will throw away everything first. It is the exception in jacks or better to throw away everything. On top of that, there are hands where you throw away everything and it includes a ten. When that happens, you are only able to draw to 3 royals.
Quote: JBCorrect. I intentionally worded it in an attempt to be tricky, but it's difficult to sneak anything past anyone here (that's a compliment).
The odds of being dealt a hand where the best play is to discard everything, and then receive a Royal Flush on the redraw, are approximately 1 in 13,970,585; compared to the odds of being dealt a Royal Flush to start with, which of course are 1 in 649,740.
Ok, I'm definitely not a Math genius, but the stat of 1 in 13,970,585 seems way out of line to me. You have 5 fewer cards which should increase your chances for a Royal, except in the case of a discarded 10. So you are telling me in essence, drawing to a Royal from a 47 card deck is a 21.5 times worse proposition than a 52 card deck. Can you please explain how you came to that number?
Quote: 4andaKickerOk, I'm definitely not a Math genius, but the stat of 1 in 13,970,585 seems way out of line to me. You have 5 fewer cards which should increase your chances for a Royal, except in the case of a discarded 10. So you are telling me in essence, drawing to a Royal from a 47 card deck is a 21.5 times worse proposition than a 52 card deck. Can you please explain how you came to that number?
That stat includes the probability that discarding all 5 initial cards is the correct strategy play, which is not often.
Quote: jc2286That stat includes the probability that discarding all 5 initial cards is the correct strategy play, which is not often.
The original statement needs to be clarified: it is 21.5 times more likely to be dealt a Royal Flush than it is to be dealt a hand which, under "proper strategy," you would discard all five cards, and then draw a Royal Flush.
Quote: ThatDonGuyThe original statement needs to be clarified: it is 21.5 times more likely to be dealt a Royal Flush than it is to be dealt a hand which, under "proper strategy," you would discard all five cards, and then draw a Royal Flush.
It was clarified in the 3rd post on page 1, almost verbatim of what you said.
I intentionally worded the initial post the way I did in hopes of making some people go "Huh?" and get them thinking - which appears to have worked.
