JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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February 19th, 2017 at 6:53:52 AM permalink
02-12-2017 "Regal Princess" Cruise Ship Report

I'll go in order of Table Games and followed by Slots.

BLACKJACK

3 types of Blackjack Tables were on the cruise.

Type 1:

$6 min / $500 max
Continuous Shuffler
6:5 payout on BJ
Dealer Hits on Soft 17
No Surrender
No Even Money
Prop Bets were "Lucky Ladies" $1-$10 max

Lucky Ladies were the same on all tables.

QH + QH = 1000x payout
Any suited pair that adds up to 20 = 19x payout
K or Q + 10 = 4x payout
Any A + 9 combo = 4x payout

Type 2:

$25 min / $1000 max
Continuous Shuffler
6:5 payout on BJ
Dealer Hits on Soft 17
Surrender allowed on opening hand
Even Money accepted
Lucky Ladies prop bets

Type 3:

Fun 21 (similar to Spanish 21)
$6 min / $500 max
6-deck shoe
3:2 payout on BJ
1:1 payout on 21
No Kings in the deck
Double allowed anytime
Surrender allowed on open hand and after doubling
Lucky Ladies prop bets.

Blackjack Summary

The only table I won at was fun 21, and not much at all. I stayed away from the other tables because everything was stacked against the player. I was a bit disappointed that Princess modified their rules to provide an extremely negative player experience. Not a lot of the rules were posted and at times it just felt like they were making up the rules during play.

Dealers pulled winning bets a lot and cards had to be unfolded to prove wins. Most of the dealers were from South Africa on the ship because the name tags showed Country of origin.

Overall return on BJ was (-$700 in the red)


CRAPS TABLE


$5 min table with 2x Odds
No Hops / No Fire Bets / plain vanilla
Micro Fiber table

You are allowed to increase the passline and odds on the passline anytime after the point was set.

Summary

The craps table was by far the best table on the ship and they only had one open from 8-9pm on to 2 or 3 am in the morning.

With the passline increases allowed at anytime, I started with $5 and after the point was set determined increases. I found this very advantageous. 4 or 10 I'd leave the $5. 5 or 9 I'd increase to $10/$20. 6 or 8 I'd increase to $30/$60.

The best night was when a bunch of drunk hot girls showed up and the table had 5 hot rollers in a row. I cleared $1,600 and was very entertained for 3 hours.

Other nights were hit and miss because the same people showed up that weren't rolling well and so I had to figure out when to DP/DC.

Overall on Craps I ended up +$300 for the week.

OTHER TABLES

Let it Ride
3-Card Poker
Roulette
Video Poker table - 12 seats. Didn't play. Sorry.



SLOT MACHINES

They had a lot of bonus game play slots and 4 video poker machines.

The slots were loose in the daytime and tight at night.

Credits were generally 1/2/3/5/10 with amounts equaling $.30/$.60/$.90/$1.50/$3.00.

Playing on 2 and 3 produced a lot more wins. This was ascertained from just talking with others. Playing max produced empty pockets.

On bonus slots playing faster produced more bonuses.

The bigger winning machines were actually located right in the front of the casino by the entrance.

Summary

My mom won $480 over the trip. My brother won about $170. I lost about $200. My wife came out about even. My Mom and Brother only played slots during night the trip.



Overall Summary

The dealers were friendly and the entire staff was top notch as far as service levels go. There were tournament buy ins for Poker, Blackjack and Slots every night. General buy in was $20 and the top 6 played in a final. Winner received $300.

I liked the craps table the best. Great experience and the only table I consistently won on while playing. I did get lucky on the 3-card poker table on the last day and won $600 on a straight flush. But it took me $400 and 3 hours to get there.

I didn't like the shift in Princess policy to maximize house profit. In 2011 there were no shufflers and the odds were 3:2 and 6:5 on BJ. I felt that you want people leaving with a positive experience and I'd give an overall casino grade of C- for the ship.

Any questions ask away.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
LuckyPhow
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February 19th, 2017 at 8:36:32 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

02-12-2017 "Regal Princess" Cruise Ship Report

Any questions ask away.


Many thanx for the great trip report!

While at sea, was the casino open 24/7?
AxelWolf
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February 19th, 2017 at 9:20:44 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

The slots were loose in the daytime and tight at night.

You dont really believe this do you? I guess its technically possible, especially if they have a central server. For the most part when people claim this type of BS it's total nonsense. I highly doubt the slot techs run around and change the slot settings. They probably have them all set fairly low to begin with and keep them that way.

Quote: JoelDeze

Playing max produced empty pockets.

That's usually the case since you are betting more on something that's probably holding 15%+.

Quote: JoelDeze

On bonus slots playing faster produced more bonuses.

of course it did, you are getting more chances to get into bonus rounds because you are playing more spins per hour.

Quote: JoelDeze

The bigger winning machines were actually located right in the front of the casino by the entrance.

Were they higher denominations? If so, they would naturally have more jackpots and appear to be the "bigger winning machines".

You hit the quadfecta on slot myths.

Right after reading the part where you were down $700 on various games. I was thinking myself, the happy ending craps winning part will be coming soon. Sure enough, as predicted to myself....
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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February 19th, 2017 at 9:24:50 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Many thanx for the great trip report!

While at sea, was the casino open 24/7?

Probably not since they needed time to change the slot payouts. (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
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February 19th, 2017 at 9:52:33 AM permalink
Why would you do a put bet with only 2x odds? That is a terrible way to play.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
CrystalMath
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February 19th, 2017 at 11:34:12 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Many thanx for the great trip report!

While at sea, was the casino open 24/7?



I think the slots are open as much as possible, which starts about 2 hours after you depart. In my experience on Princess cruises, table games are shut down between about 2am to 10am. On my last cruise, I would go to the casino about 6am to "play" Ultimate X.
I heart Crystal Math.
JoelDeze
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February 20th, 2017 at 4:19:39 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Many thanx for the great trip report!

While at sea, was the casino open 24/7?



Slots open 24/7 on sea days or 30 min after departing an island.

Table games opened at 11 am and closed at 2 am or 3 am depending on the amount of action they were taking.

Casino is closed while docked.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
JoelDeze
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February 20th, 2017 at 2:31:26 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You dont really believe this do you? I guess its technically possible, especially if they have a central server. For the most part when people claim this type of BS it's total nonsense. I highly doubt the slot techs run around and change the slot settings. They probably have them all set fairly low to begin with and keep them that way.

That's usually the case since you are betting more on something that's probably holding 15%+.

of course it did, you are getting more chances to get into bonus rounds because you are playing more spins per hour.

Were they higher denominations? If so, they would naturally have more jackpots and appear to be the "bigger winning machines".

You hit the quadfecta on slot myths.

Right after reading the part where you were down $700 on various games. I was thinking myself, the happy ending craps winning part will be coming soon. Sure enough, as predicted to myself....



On your first question regarding loose/tight, I have absolutely no way of electronically confirming what I mentioned. Almost all of the info for slots was ascertained from just talking with a majority of the same people that played for hours and figuring out what times the won the most. It's not a super large casino and apparently there are a lot of casino goers that show up around the same spots. I simply asked them how they were doing and if they found things better in the daytime or nighttime. I also asked if they changed their style of play and what machines they liked the most.

You could easily walk around the entire casino in less than 90 seconds. Not a big casino.

On the bonus spins response, your answer is not correct. I could push a button 5 seconds after every spin for 2 hours and maybe get 1 - 2 bonuses show up. Speed racing over just 1 hour produced from 4 to 7 bonuses. Unfortunately, I never figured this out until the last day. I wish I could have tested it further. Maybe I would have had better luck with the machines I went to.

The winning machines in the front were max $1.25 betting machines. They seemed to win something on every spin or every other spin. I actually did well on one but I really hate slots so I don't play them often. I was mainly testing different machines for quirks.

Lastly, on the craps table, I spent 60% of my time in the casino on this one lone micro fiber table. I had a lot of short to medium rolls because the bounce was difficult. I didn't win anything big. I mentioned a $1,600 payout one night but ended up overall at a trifle of that amount. I wouldn't call that a big win at all.

In the end, between everything I did over the full 7 day cruise, I did not come out a winner. I win a lot more at Twin River and so far, Twin River and Foxwoods has produced more money for me combined than any of the other 8 casinos I've visited. The cruise ship wasn't the worst experience I have had but it wasn't even in the low tier of the best. Sure, the service was nice. I had an unlimited drink purchase for the week so I had a lot of fun trying out different drinks while playing, even though I didn't drink as much in the casino. The dealers and staff were exemplary and nice. There were very few grumblers on board.

The experience I loved the most was that when I play in Twin River I am surrounded by 70% Asians towed in from the surrounding area and on the ship, I didn't have that experience because there were so many different people from all different Countries. The conversations were interesting and so I found it more of a social affair.

In the end, I would "NOT" recommend anyone playing in a casino on a cruise ship. If you want to play, go throw a max bet on the roulette wheel and shoot for black and cross your fingers. It will save you a lot of time and effort and then you can go about enjoying the rest of the cruise elsewhere.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
bbvk05
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February 20th, 2017 at 3:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze



With the passline increases allowed at anytime, I started with $5 and after the point was set determined increases. I found this very advantageous. 4 or 10 I'd leave the $5. 5 or 9 I'd increase to $10/$20. 6 or 8 I'd increase to $30/$60.



What am I reading here? When the point was set at 5, 6, 8, or 9 you'd put more money on the PASS LINE at 1:1 payout? That's giving the house free money. They have huge edges on those bets.

If you want to pet more at craps, add more to the odds. If you want to bet more than max odds, add money to the pass line ON THE COME OUT ROLL. The edge there is 1.41%.

What you were doing there, if I understand it, is simply giving up your superior chance at a come-out winner.
JoelDeze
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February 20th, 2017 at 4:18:31 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

What am I reading here? When the point was set at 5, 6, 8, or 9 you'd put more money on the PASS LINE at 1:1 payout? That's giving the house free money. They have huge edges on those bets.

If you want to pet more at craps, add more to the odds. If you want to bet more than max odds, add money to the pass line ON THE COME OUT ROLL. The edge there is 1.41%.

What you were doing there, if I understand it, is simply giving up your superior chance at a come-out winner.



They were capped at 2x on the odds. I normally play 5x or 10x tables at home.

I generally played 5 on the PL and 10 on the odds (2x capped). I then increased after the 3rd or 5th roll if no 7-out to 10/20 (5 and 9) OR (20/40 to 30/60 if a hot roller). It worked out well.

The majority of money I lost had nothing to do with PL bets. It was when I didn't turn off or take down place bets when I became greedy.

I like playing at home where I know the people and know which rollers shoot well and which ones don't.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
FleaStiff
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February 20th, 2017 at 4:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

02-12-2017 "Regal Princess" Cruise Ship Report
The slots were loose in the daytime and tight at night.

Yeah, the casino hire some young punk from a foreign land who is interested in sun, travel and young ladies, pays him a minimum wage and then gives him the secret codes to change the machines. After that they sleep soundly at night knowing their money is safe.

Othere than that... it was a very nice trip report and summary.
DRich
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February 20th, 2017 at 6:19:30 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze



I like playing at home where I know ... which rollers shoot well and which ones don't.



Lol
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
bbvk05
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February 20th, 2017 at 9:28:02 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

They were capped at 2x on the odds. I normally play 5x or 10x tables at home.

I generally played 5 on the PL and 10 on the odds (2x capped). I then increased after the 3rd or 5th roll if no 7-out to 10/20 (5 and 9) OR (20/40 to 30/60 if a hot roller). It worked out well.

The majority of money I lost had nothing to do with PL bets. It was when I didn't turn off or take down place bets when I became greedy.

I like playing at home where I know the people and know which rollers shoot well and which ones don't.



I'm glad it worked out for you. Those are still horrendous bets. You'd be much better off just putting that money on the pass line on the front end. Or placing the 6 and 8; buying the 4 and 10. You likely would have had a better result.

Your method is making some of the worst available bets.
JoelDeze
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February 21st, 2017 at 5:34:50 AM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

I'm glad it worked out for you. Those are still horrendous bets. You'd be much better off just putting that money on the pass line on the front end. Or placing the 6 and 8; buying the 4 and 10. You likely would have had a better result.

Your method is making some of the worst available bets.



I was mainly there to have fun. At home I only bet on myself and a few other rollers. Everyone else I generally do DP/DC or PB6 or PB8. The cruise ship was a different atmosphere. I'm also a karma player. Don't ask. Most people don't like the answer I give.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
LuckyPhow
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February 21st, 2017 at 6:16:50 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I'm also a karma player. Don't ask. Most people don't like the answer I give.



Amen to that, bro! For some, if they cannot count it, it must not exist. Glad you decided to note your position. I'm sure they're now setting loose their attack Dogmas to chase after your Karma.

Some of us have come to understand that energy has many "intangibles." Like Love and Beauty, it is not readily quantifiable. To each her/his own.
JoelDeze
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February 21st, 2017 at 7:08:17 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Amen to that, bro! For some, if they cannot count it, it must not exist. Glad you decided to note your position. I'm sure they're now setting loose their attack Dogmas to chase after your Karma.

Some of us have come to understand that energy has many "intangibles." Like Love and Beauty, it is not readily quantifiable. To each her/his own.




Completely agree.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
Romes
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February 21st, 2017 at 7:51:50 AM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

I'm glad it worked out for you. Those are still horrendous bets. You'd be much better off just putting that money on the pass line on the front end. Or placing the 6 and 8; buying the 4 and 10. You likely would have had a better result.

Your method is making some of the worst available bets.

I don't know if he realizes... So when you bet $5 PL, then a 6 comes up and you put more money on it... That money is at a disadvantage, and a MUCH BIGGER disadvantage considering it didn't even have a chance to win on the 7/11 come out... 7 is the most likely number, so any 1 throw 7 win is a good play. The PL becomes the dog after a point gets established... aka you're stuffing more money after it's a bad bet.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
FleaStiff
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February 21st, 2017 at 8:15:28 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I'm also a karma player. Don't ask. Most people don't like the answer I give.

Yeah, I know. If the dice move to someone who is loud, obnoxious and irritating, I switch to the Don't for sure. Is this mathematically utter hogwash, of course it is. I'll lose my money in my own style.
JoelDeze
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February 21st, 2017 at 10:23:09 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I don't know if he realizes... So when you bet $5 PL, then a 6 comes up and you put more money on it... That money is at a disadvantage, and a MUCH BIGGER disadvantage considering it didn't even have a chance to win on the 7/11 come out... 7 is the most likely number, so any 1 throw 7 win is a good play. The PL becomes the dog after a point gets established... aka you're stuffing more money after it's a bad bet.



Romes, we've had this argument before. No amount of mathematical rationale is going to explain how someone has 58 straight rolls, hits 4 points, and never once hits a 7 on either the come out roll, or anytime during play, until he finally 7-outs. Yes, I've seen it happen. I've done it. And, during that time, the dealer at the opposite end of the table was saying that he's seen it before. He said a person that doesn't roll a 7, even during the come out roll, generally has a long roll. The dealer had been dealing craps for more than 10 years.

I am in fact a math guy. I have a program that utilizes RNG based on using radioactive decay with more than 100,000,000 events being isolated and tested. While the overall probability is mathematically accurate with what is posted on almost every online site, it is not accurate when utilizing the same data in randomly generated short sessions.

I could program something as simple as a 3-hour session with 10 people at a table playing PL and max odds at 5x and find that 9s came up more than 6s or 8s during that span. Sure, over a long amount of time the data shows a certain and distinct probability rationale in favor of the 7 on a come out roll. And, likewise, 6s and 8s should come up more often than 5s or 9s, and likewise 5s and 9s should come up more than 4s and 10s. Also the average 7-out should be right around 8 rolls. However, it won't explain why 5 drunk hot girls show up at a table having no idea how to play the game, and each of them rolls a minimum of one to two points each and makes me $1,600 on the session.

All of that probability is just that - "probability". Probability is not prediction. Probability helps enforce predictive analytics and in some sports (like football) it is fairly accurate. Probability doesn't explain why the Pats come back to beat the Falcons in OT. How much would you have bet in the middle of the 3rd quarter that the Pats would win the game? I bet $500 on the ATS in favor of the Pats in the 2nd half and another $250 on a parlay (Over and ATS on Pats in 2nd half). Why? They were leading and crushing the Falcons statistically in the 1st half regardless of the score. Now most people would think it was a close game. It wasn't a close game at all. The Pats doubled almost every stat in the game. So, was the statistical probability in favor of the Pats? Was the scoring probability in favor of the Falcons to win the game? Look at the math for just that one game and then continue a discussion on probability.

At some point you can't just explain events like this away to random pattern deviation. If you do believe this do be random pattern deviation then every person that believes they have DI and controlled shooting techniques can simply say that when they have a short roll it was random pattern deviation.

All I do know is that I came out on the positive in craps and I had a lot of fun watching 5 drunk girls make me some money.

And, please by all means stop trying to explain a good bet versus a bad bet to me or anyone else. I'll simply answer it for you. A good bet is when you wager money on an event and win. A bad bet is when you wager money on an event and lose. If I wager 20 straight times on the 4 and 10 and end up winning more than I lose and you wager 10 on the PL 20 times and end up losing more than you win, who had the good bet and who had the bad bet?

Mathematically you are correct on the probability and return. I have never said otherwise and never will. However, mathematical probability does not accurately define the crazy randomness of patterns during a live event. A guy on the casino ship rolled 4 YOs in a row randomly shaking a pair of dice. Go find the probability on that event. The next time the guy gets the dice again he rolls 2 or 3 YOs (not in a row) randomly shaking the dice. Why is this particular guy rolling YOs? No one else at the table was rolling them. So, what's the probability of 1 guy out of 8 rolling the only YOs at the table?

Some things math cannot explain.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
Romes
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February 21st, 2017 at 10:31:12 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Romes, we've had this argument before. No amount of mathematical rationale is going to explain...


Quote: JoelDeze

...Sure, over a long amount of time the data shows a certain and distinct probability rationale in favor of the 7 on a come out roll.

Just read your first 2 quotes over and over after one another until it hits you...

Quote: JoelDeze

However, it won't explain why 5 drunk hot girls show up at a table having no idea how to play the game, and each of them rolls a minimum of one to two points each and makes me $1,600 on the session.

Yes, why yes it does. You've answered your own question about how you haven't hit "over a long amount of time" to see all respective outcomes and the averages. You're writing out yourself that you're seeing VARIANCE in the short term, which is exactly what 5 drunk hot girls at a craps table throwing "well" means. Everyone remembers 5 drunk hot girls throwing well. No one remembers the 5 ugly sober girls who 7'd out on the first point trow... Memory is biased, math is not.

Quote: JoelDeze

At some point you can't just explain events like this away to random pattern deviation.

ANYTHING you can provide a verified true story of I can explain with math... literally anything.

Quote: JoelDeze

A good bet is when you wager money on an event and win. A bad bet is when you wager money on an event and lose. If I wager 20 straight times on the 4 and 10 and end up winning more than I lose and you wager 10 on the PL 20 times and end up losing more than you win, who had the good bet and who had the bad bet?

I immediately call upon the Wizard and/or moderators to chastize and/or suspend/ban JoelDeze for directly contradicting the very meaning of the Wizard's Odds site and our discussions surrounding it here.

The definition of a good bet is one in which you have a positive expectation. The definition of a bad bet is one which you make with a negative expectation. Luck, doesn't make you good or bad... Luck is nothing more than a simple word for variance in the short run. Using your knowledge, if a counter correctly counts and plays and has a loosing streak, then he had a bunch of "bad" bets even though in the end he came out to his mathematical expectation by using his SKILL over the course of the long run. You're telling every AP on this site every bet they've ever loss was a BAD BET, which I guarantee most of them would take offence to (because they use their brains to make good bets).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
JoelDeze
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February 21st, 2017 at 10:43:40 AM permalink
Quote: Romes


I immediately call upon the Wizard and/or moderators to chastize and/or suspend/ban JoelDeze for directly contradicting the very meaning of the Wizard's Odds site and our discussions surrounding it here.

The definition of a good bet is one in which you have a positive expectation. The definition of a bad bet is one which you make with a negative expectation. Luck, doesn't make you good or bad... Luck is nothing more than a simple word for variance in the short run. Using your knowledge, if a counter correctly counts and plays and has a loosing streak, then he had a bunch of "bad" bets even though in the end he came out to his mathematical expectation by using his SKILL over the course of the long run. You're telling every AP on this site every bet they've ever loss was a BAD BET, which I guarantee most of them would take offence to (because they use their brains to make good bets).



Really? You are going to go down that road? I would likewise ask the Wizard to suspend/ban Romes for trolling a topic and harassing a member for his or her own personal viewpoints. Are you suggesting that a member cannot provide a personal viewpoint? I'm not attacking you or berating you. I am not violating the rules on this forum.

I never once mentioned Blackjack by the way. I do win on blackjack but there is a lot of AP involved. Craps is quite difficult to AP and DI as it is truly a mechanical and athletic scenario.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
FleaStiff
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February 21st, 2017 at 11:16:25 AM permalink
I think the poker term is 'bad beat'....

Its a good bet for the five drunk girls only after the dice have rolled.

Whereas the mathematicians want to define 'good bet' at the moment that it is made.

Longshots come in sometimes. The casino thinks they are ALL good bets, because they all bring in money.

If the Wizard places a five dollar bet on Black, he thinks its a good bet particularly if its a European wheel playing European rules. In the average casino its 5.26 per cent house edge.

The gree eye shade type observing that bet doesn't even see the five dollars, he sees the mythical twenty-six cents.
AFTER the wheel has spun, then there is a different aspect to good and bad, ie, won and lost.

If a young woman in a super slinky outfit sits down next to the Wizard at a Black Jack table, he knows its 98 percent chance she is a hooker and 2 percent chance she is lonely and rich and will offer him monetary inducements to come up to her room with her. As always, he has to wait to find out.
Last edited by: FleaStiff on Feb 21, 2017
Wizard
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February 21st, 2017 at 11:23:34 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I immediately call upon the Wizard and/or moderators to chastize and/or suspend/ban JoelDeze for directly contradicting the very meaning of the Wizard's Odds site and our discussions surrounding it here.



Request to suspend denied. There is no rule that every member must agree with me. I tolerated hundreds, maybe thousands, of Alan's nonsense posts in the name of freedom of speech. I also don't have the time to correct every incorrect opinion about gambling. That is partially why this forum is here, so others can help me enlighten the world about math and how it can make people better gamblers.

Quote:

The definition of a good bet is one in which you have a positive expectation. The definition of a bad bet is one which you make with a negative expectation. Luck, doesn't make you good or bad... Luck is nothing more than a simple word for variance in the short run.



You're absolutely right. My tagline summarizes my philosophy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Romes
Romes
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PokerGrinder
February 21st, 2017 at 12:22:10 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Request to suspend denied. There is no rule that every member must agree with me. I tolerated hundreds, maybe thousands, of Alan's nonsense posts in the name of freedom of speech. I also don't have the time to correct every incorrect opinion about gambling. That is partially why this forum is here, so others can help me enlighten the world about math and how it can make people better gamblers.

You're absolutely right. My tagline summarizes my philosophy.

The problem is the spreading of falsified information, just like with other events I don't even want to bring in to this. We don't commonly post "a good bet is one that has a positive expectation" but people who don't know what they're talking about will more commonly post "a good bet is one you win, and a bad bet is one you lose" nonsense to confuse and mislead newbies.

Same as posting garbage on social media. Other friends see it and perpetuate the lie/falsified information until enough people have seen it that they think it's actually true. That's what he's spreading and I was in no way expecting any kind of actual suspension/ban/etc but just hoping and wishing that on a site where we have moderators (which FB badly needs) that perhaps his comments could be snuffed out =p.

OOOO FUN IDEA
If we got a petition started and enough votes/"signatures" from other forum members could we make the quote Joel's tagline???

Quote:

The definition of a good bet is one in which you have a positive expectation. The definition of a bad bet is one which you make with a negative expectation. Luck, doesn't make you good or bad... Luck is nothing more than a simple word for variance in the short run.

Playing it correctly means you've already won.
bbvk05
bbvk05
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February 21st, 2017 at 3:08:08 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Romes, we've had this argument before. No amount of mathematical rationale is going to explain how someone has 58 straight rolls, hits 4 points, and never once hits a 7 on either the come out roll, or anytime during play, until he finally 7-outs. Yes, I've seen it happen. I've done it. And, during that time, the dealer at the opposite end of the table was saying that he's seen it before. He said a person that doesn't roll a 7, even during the come out roll, generally has a long roll. The dealer had been dealing craps for more than 10 years.



This is hogwash. I've seen no-seven rolls about that long and I don't even play craps that much. Your odds were only 1/~39,000. I've seen 5 elevens in a row rolled, and 8 sevens in a row rolled, both of which I think is WAY less likely than your 58 rolls. Those "rare" events happen every time you roll the dice...each specific set of combinations is astronomically unlikely. You just notice particular ones because certain numbers are significant to you.

Dealers don't see enough craps rolls in a lifetime to be a proper sample that would validate such a theory, even if they could accurately remember them accurately—but they can't even do that. Certain events just stick out in dealer minds. "Splitting 4s never works." "First hand of the shoe is always bad." "Dealer aces always have 9s". Dealers don't know the rules of magic any better than you do—and you don't know the rules of magic.

Also, you're trusting unrecorded human memory to identify indicators that can detect when streaks are likely to continue on independent DICE ROLLS? That's a Russian nesting doll of bad reasoning. Can you even theorize a mechanism of how one dice roll is related to the next?

Quote: JoelDeze



Some things math cannot explain.



Math explains every single relevant thing about streaks and chances of winning and losing in craps.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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February 21st, 2017 at 3:15:48 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

....I've seen 5 elevens in a row rolled...


Big deal, some people have claimed 18 elevens in a row!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
bbvk05
bbvk05
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February 21st, 2017 at 7:33:39 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Big deal, some people have claimed 18 elevens in a row!



Ha. 5 is VERY unlikely. 18?!

But this one time I saw ten rolls. It was 7, 4, 8,2,9,12,11,3,3,11. How unlikely was that?!?!?!?! Oh my god!

It's all unlikely.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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February 21st, 2017 at 7:35:17 PM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

Ha. 5 is VERY unlikely. 18?!

But this one time I saw ten rolls. It was 7, 4, 8,2,9,12,11,3,3,11. How unlikely was that?!?!?!?! Oh my god!

It's all unlikely.


You didn't get the joke, did you?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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February 22nd, 2017 at 2:14:06 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Big deal, some people have claimed 18 elevens in a row!



Luckily I'm not one of them. I've only hit 17 in a row.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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February 22nd, 2017 at 2:23:01 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Really? You are going to go down that road? I would likewise ask the Wizard to suspend/ban Romes for trolling a topic and harassing a member for his or her own personal viewpoints..

I think we should have a vote. NVM, I like Joel and his crackpot gambling theories.

It goes to show that gambler's fallacy can affect just about anyone.

Are you a religious person Joel?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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February 22nd, 2017 at 6:16:20 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



Are you a religious person Joel?



I'm a philosopher. I believe that those who heed life with too much speculation and contemplation are the ones stuck home with constipation.
“It’s a dog eat dog world out there and I’m wearing milkbone underwear .” – Norm Peterson
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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February 23rd, 2017 at 1:49:11 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I'm a philosopher


Joel has a completely unique and creative method for proving his value as a tout. He posts his college football picks. If they lose, he brags about his bets and wins in games where he didn't post his picks. Very clever. I'm like THIS close to signing up for his service.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 23, 2017
Please don't feed the trolls
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