Fire Bet Hedge

If four different numbers have been made, how much should you lay against the point on the fifth number to guarantee a win? Assume a five dollar fire bet which pays 1250 for five numbers.

How much to lay if five numbers have been made? (five dollar bet pays 5000 for six numbers)

Zero.

If four different points have been made, the FireBet has ALREADY won.



Am I missing something?

You are missing that you have won 24 to 1, but if a fifth different point hits, you win 249 to 1, and if all six points hit, it's 999 to 1. Only the highest payout is given, so you have to wait.

I suppose you could hedge...take a 5 dollar fire bet. You'll win 125 no matter what. If laying the 5th point were an even money bet, you'd lay however much would earn you ($1125/2)=562.50. Then if the point was hit, you'd lose 562.50 and win the fire bet 1250. The problem is it's not an even money bet. It's going to be less profitable the harder the point is to hit. 4 and 10 could only hedge for about 400 bucks, maybe 500 on the 5 and 9, and a little more on the 6 and 8. I could make the equations but I'm not a big believer in hedging....

Oh. Now I get it.

I was thinking that the original poster was talking about a bettor that bets wrong all the time, and is also betting the FireBet - quite a contradictory bet!

If I understand it correctly, the original poster is suggesting that a RIGHT bettor is betting WITH the shooter, and feels that after hitting 4 different numbers, the shooter's hot roll is suddenly over and won't hit a fifth. (Or after 5, won't hit the sixth).


OK. Now I understand the question.

But I'm with the Wiz and his 7th Commandments of Gambling: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

I asked the Wizard this question about hedging the 5th point. He answers the question
here:

He says first that you should take down the odds bet and solve for the lay bet.

For example, if the 5th point is a 5 or 9, and you had $5 on the fire. If the point hits you win $1,255 (1250 + 5); it if doesn't then you win 120 (125 - 5).

1255 - b = 120 + (19 /31)xb
1135 = 50/31 b
b = 703.70

Since you can only lay in increments of $31 on the 5 and 9 (31 pays 20), you lay $682 (to win 440).

If the point hits, you win $1255 - $682 = $593.
If the point does not hit, you win $120 + 440 = $560.

I've used this a few times.

Thanks - someone understands me.

I think you're missing something.

OK. Say the shooter has made his four points of the Firebet. If you then bet the don't, you still have the chance that the shooter's next point is one of the four already made. Then there's the chance he'll make that point, so your don't will lose, AND not advance the Firebet payout.

Remember, the Firebet is not that the shooter successfully makes at least four points, but that he successfully makes at least four different points. For that reason, I believe hedge bets won't work.

That's why he's not betting the don't; he's laying the point IF it comes out as the one that would bump the Fire Bet to 5 points. The only thing about the above analysis is that it is different if the point is not 5 (or 9).

Oh. Laying. Got it.

Can you tell that I don't frequent the Dark Side?

The formula for the bet is as follows:

Amount won if point made: 250f + p - l
Amount won if point lost: 25f - p - lw

Where f is the fire bet, p is the pass line, l is the lay amount, and w is the win factor which is 20/41 (you lay 41 to win 20) for a point of 4 and 10, 20/31 (you lay 31 to win 20) for a point of 5 and 9, and 20/25 (you lay 25 to win 20) for a point of 6 and 8.

So to solve for l, you have the following equation:

250f + p - l = 25f - p - lw
225f + 2p = l(1 - w)

Hedge Bet based on fire bet and $10 pass line (no odds on pass line)

5th	Lay	Win
Point	units $	units $	$1	$2	$3	$4	$5
4 or 10	41	20	164	287	451	615	738
5 or 9	31	20	124	279	403	558	682
6 or 8	25	20	125	250	375	500	625

You would play the pass line in case the point rolled is not the 5th point in a fire. In the casinos I play, you usually must bet the lay in increments of 41 (for the 4 and 10), 31 (5 and 9), and 25 (6 and 8).

All of this of course violates the Wizard's 7th commandment of gambling but if you have a win goal of a certain amount, this will help.

Well done...do you care to do after 5 points have hit, if the sixth becomes available?

Sixth point

So to solve for l, you have the following equation:

1000f + p - l = 250f - p - lw
750f + 2p = l(1 - w)

Hedge Bet based on fire bet and $10 pass line (no odds on pass line)

6th	Lay	Win
Point	units $	units $	$1	$2	$3	$4	$5
4 or 10	41	20	492	984	1517	2009	2501
5 or 9	31	20	465	899	1364	1829	2263
6 or 8	25	20	425	825	1250	1675	2075

This hedge on the 6th point will cut your 6th point win by 50%, that is, instead of winning $1,010 for a $1 fire / $10 pass, you'll win about $500 per $1 fire. If you don't do the lay, you will win $240 if the point doesn't hit. Meanwhile the odds of hitting the point are either 1:2, 2:3, or 5:6.

My gambling buddy was in AC yesterday and played the "Fire Bet" in Craps for the very first time. He told me the shooter had $5 on the Firebet, so my buddy put up $1. The shooter hit 5 unique points, then "layed the 6th point" for $600. My buddy followed suit and also "layed the 6th point" for $240. The dealers were chastising both of them for having "little faith" because the 6th point was a "6" which is "easy to make". First roll after establishing the Point...SEVEN!

The "hedge" by "Laying the 6th point (Firebet)" is GENIUS!

I did the same thing the one time the fire bet made it to 4 for me. Dealers chastised me too. I won like $100 on my hedge, and $25 on the fire. I was happy.

Both times I was on the table when the Fire Bet hit for 5 (I don't play it), the last point was either 6 or 8. A bunch of players the second time did a hedge for quite a bit (like 1000 bucks). Wizard says "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets" but for the feeling of a win, it's not the worse thing in the world you could do.

If there is one commandment that can be debated it's "Thou shalt not hedge thy bets" I think hedging is okay if your house edge on the hedge is not too high.

On a sort of separate note, a better way to hedge on the fire would be to put the table min on don't pass, and then play up to 100% odds. People will say "But what if the point you are looking for doesn't hit?" But, if you're thinking of hedging, the house edge you're losing by possibly playing a don't when it doesn't hit is a lot better than having to pay a higher house edge for having to lay a point. Just a thought.

Let's say you have $5 on the firebet, have hit 5 numbers and shooter comes out on the 6th, let's say a 10. You want to hedge and put $1000 on a no 10, but you don't have enough chips in front of you or cash in your wallet to cover the bet. Will the casino "spot" you this bet, since you'll either be getting paid $5000 if a 10 rolls, or $1250 if a 7 rolls? Just asking in case I'm lucky enough to be stuck with this dilemma, minus the not having enough cash part 😬

No they are not going to. Maybe there are exceptions but I wouldn't expect it.

If the shooter just hit 5 numbers and you don't have money to hedge then stop playing the middle crap.

I played craps today for the first time in quite a while. I buy in for 300 and play 5 pass with 3x odds and 2 come bets with 3x odds. First five shooters don't make a single point and I don't get paid off on any come bets. Don't you hate when that happens? So I am down to about $40 and the next person shoots. He goes on a crazy roll. I only have 40 so I am doing 5 and 10 odds. I have all my chips out. 5 and 10, 5 and 10, and 5 and 5. Without turning this post too long he makes many many passes and gets the 5th fire number lit. At this point I have about 700 in front of me plus another 250 coming from fire but he is still rolling. I have gone fron 5 and 2x odds to 10 and 5x odds with a continuous come bet.

All he needs is an 8. Oh boy oh boy here it comes. He comes out on a 5. Damn it... next throw 5. Whew. Ok here it comes. 4. Damn it... next throw 4. Whee. Ok now here it comes, 9 again. F me.. about 9 throws later he gets the 9. I am up to about 1200 in front of me. Ok here it comes. I am praying to the cheques god. 8 8 8 8, bam there it is. Ok wholly f, he is going to do it. I decide to lay 240 on it. What the hell why not. The old guy next to me chastises me saying thats the worst bet on the table. I snap back and tell him I dont need advice from the person with a 15 pass line and $10 odds with ni other bets other than rhe fire bet. He still has the same bet after this monster roll. Anyways, He went on and on and on. Threw maybe 10 more times. Each time the anticipation mounted. Finally here is comes. 1 dice lands on a 5, the other dice hits a stack of chips and is leaning on them. It is a a a a a a 2. Sigh..... Owell I get paid $250 on the fire and 280 on my lay. I cashed out for $2700 after being down to $40. It's ashame I was down to $40 or in would have had the money to ramp up much quicker.

Edited. Thanks