Theoretical versus actual losses
I recently requested some information from a casino in the UK where i play occasionally, as i seemed to be having a Biblivally bad run there.
Eventually they have sent the requested information and it makes for some interesting reading. I play only 3 card poker there, betting the ante and playing Q-8 or better, and i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.
Over the period, i have lost the full amount of my buy in on each of my 10 visits. My turnover is approximately only 2x my buyin over the duration (a total of 16 hours of total play) and my actualised losses exceed by a factor of 15x my theoretical losses.
Can people smarter than me help me understand if this is feasible over this type of timescale with an unbiased deck (the deck is machine shuffled and dealt). Am i somewhere in the normal range of 'unlucky' at this venue or is something else at play?
Thank you.
Quote: LimeyMattyHi all,
I recently requested some information from a casino in the UK where i play occasionally, as i seemed to be having a Biblivally bad run there.
Eventually they have sent the requested information and it makes for some interesting reading. I play only 3 card poker there, betting the ante and playing Q-8 or better, and i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.
Over the period, i have lost the full amount of my buy in on each of my 10 visits. My turnover is approximately only 2x my buyin over the duration (a total of 16 hours of total play) and my actualised losses exceed by a factor of 15x my theoretical losses.
Can people smarter than me help me understand if this is feasible over this type of timescale with an unbiased deck (the deck is machine shuffled and dealt). Am i somewhere in the normal range of 'unlucky' at this venue or is something else at play?
Thank you.
link to original post
Please tell us the ratio between your typical buy-in and your unit bet size?
Some notes:
It's not the worst table game out there, but it is mindless: simply raise on a Q-6-4 or better.
Look for the best table on the pairs plus (1-4-6-30-40), bonus (1-4-5), HA 2.32%.
Stay away from 1-3-6 games as they will have a HA at about 7% and will really kill your bankroll.
Because you only get a pair or higher 25.6% of the time, expect to go down alot in this game.
You will only get a flush or better on about 8.5% of hands.
The HA on the regular game is 3.37% with an element of risk of 2.01%.
So on a $10 table with pairs plus and the ante, at 30 hands per hour,
expect to lose: .0232 x 300 + .0337 x 300 = $17.07/hr.
If I need some mindless fun I will play this game but only for a limited time.
I have one chart where I'd bet $20 on the Ante/Play and $10 on the Pairs Plus and have a 60X bet session (first 2 bets, $30) starting with $1,800. I'd be looking for trips payout of $400 and a Straight Flush payout of $520 on a $50 total bet.
Quote: LimeyMattyHi all,
I recently requested some information from a casino in the UK where i play occasionally, as i seemed to be having a Biblivally bad run there.
Eventually they have sent the requested information and it makes for some interesting reading. I play only 3 card poker there, betting the ante and playing Q-8 or better, and i also play the bonus bets of Pair Plus and Prime, both for typically around half the size of the ante bet.
Over the period, i have lost the full amount of my buy in on each of my 10 visits. My turnover is approximately only 2x my buyin over the duration (a total of 16 hours of total play) and my actualised losses exceed by a factor of 15x my theoretical losses.
Can people smarter than me help me understand if this is feasible over this type of timescale with an unbiased deck (the deck is machine shuffled and dealt). Am i somewhere in the normal range of 'unlucky' at this venue or is something else at play?
Thank you.
link to original post
My first guess would be you are betting too much of you bankroll per hand. Try to keep bets around 1% of bankroll. In other words if your buy in is $500, limit your bets to $5 or less.
But I have seen people abandon the Ante/Play bets and just play the Pairs Plus and the 6 card Bonus bets only.
I'm halfway watching through this and it may be the new strategy she titles this video on. I've seen Victor from the Slot Lady channel emphasize this strategy. Spoiler: she won on a flush for the 6 card bonus that pays 20:1. If you want a Royal payout over $10K, bet $10 or more on the 6 card bonus.
I'm not sure what the Prime bet the OP speaks of.
