9-7 baccarat edge?

I have this info from Eliot Jacobsen.

9 over 7 (natural 9)

Wins and pays 50-to-1 if the result of the hand is that one hand is either Player natural 9, Banker = 7 or Player = 7, Banker natural 9.
House edge: 8.103%
Use tags: (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1)
Trigger true count: +6
Bet frequency: 14.33%
Average edge: 10.85%
Units won per 100 hands: 1.56


My casino puts the cut card at 1 deck though, but will this change winrate to per 100 hands, and bet frequency or edge? but most imporantly win per/100 hands?

Quote: Runlikegod777

I have this info from Eliot Jacobsen.

9 over 7 (natural 9)

Wins and pays 50-to-1 if the result of the hand is that one hand is either Player natural 9, Banker = 7 or Player = 7, Banker natural 9.
House edge: 8.103%
Use tags: (0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1)
Trigger true count: +6
Bet frequency: 14.33%
Average edge: 10.85%
Units won per 100 hands: 1.56


My casino puts the cut card at 1 deck though, but will this change winrate to per 100 hands, and bet frequency or edge? but most imporantly win per/100 hands?
link to original post

Runlikegod777,

Unfortunately yes: reduced pen will decrease all three of these metrics.

Is your game 6 decks or 8?

Dog Hand

8 decks, do you know what the winrate per 100 hands woudl be?

8 deck
pen = 7.5 deck(78.85 rounds/shoe)
House edge: 8.10321%
Use tags: (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1)
Trigger RC >= +35
Bet frequency: 17.09%(13.478 hands/shoe)
Average edge: 7.546%
Units won per shoe: 1.017

I prefer to use running count.

how about with pen 7 decks, (they cut off 1 deck).


Also ace is 0 in count right to be balanced or no?

Quote: Runlikegod777

how about with pen 7 decks, (they cut off 1 deck).


Also ace is 0 in count right to be balanced or no?
link to original post

8 deck
pen = 7 deck(72.59 rounds/shoe)
House edge: 8.10321%
Use tags: (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, -5, 1, -5, 1), unbalanced counting system
Trigger RC >= +37
Bet frequency: 13.74%(9.974 hands/shoe)
Average edge: 6.346%
Units won per shoe: 0.633
Units won per 100 rounds: 0.872

Quote: Runlikegod777

8 decks, do you know what the winrate per 100 hands woudl be?
link to original post

Runlikegod777,

I simmed 1 million shoes of Baccarat using the number of decks and cut offs (including the odd "burn cards" rule), along with the sidebet tags and TC trigger you mentioned.

The overall edge for the SB is 7.53% and its play frequency is 11.83%. The units won per 100 hands is

(0.0753 units won/bet)*(0.1183 bets/round)*(100 rounds) = 0.890799 units (not shown below).

As I predicted, all three measures fall below those of the "14 card cutoff" sim results from teliot:
Bet frequency: 14.33%
Average edge: 10.85%
Units won per 100 hands: 1.56

The table shows the TC distribution for +6 & up, along with the number of SB wins at each TC and the SB EV.

Here are the results (with a huge thanks to fellow WoV member miplet for his table maker!):

Baccarat Natural 9 vs. 7 pays 50:1
Shoes	1,000,000			Rounds	72,645,419	Percents
Decks	8			Banker	33,324,669	45.87%
Cut Off	52			Player	32,408,206	44.61%
SB Trigger	6			Ties	6,912,544	9.52%
Tags				SB Plays	8,592,616	11.83%
2	1			SB Wins	181,171	0.25%	7.53%
3	1			TC	SB Plays	SB Wins	SB EV
4	1			0	0	0	#DIV/0!
5	1			1	0	0	#DIV/0!
6	1			2	0	0	#DIV/0!
7	-5			3	0	0	#DIV/0!
8	1			4	0	0	#DIV/0!
9	-5			5	0	0	#DIV/0!
X	1			6	1,691,711	33,589	1.26%
A	0			7	1,304,031	26,261	2.71%
				8	1,076,213	21,973	4.13%
minTC	0			9	836,271	17,566	7.13%
maxTC	30			10	687,441	14,399	6.82%
				11	540,684	11,484	8.32%
				12	478,243	10,511	12.09%
				13	336,894	7,494	13.45%
				14	302,279	6,659	12.35%
				15	237,697	5,243	12.49%
				16	202,579	4,443	11.85%
				17	162,158	3,644	14.61%
				18	135,833	3,125	17.33%
				19	107,020	2,498	19.04%
				20	93,330	2,195	19.95%
				21	72,502	1,758	23.66%
				22	60,228	1,443	22.19%
				23	48,961	1,208	25.83%
				24	41,909	1,079	31.31%
				25	28,566	715	27.65%
				26	32,353	816	28.63%
				27	21,294	499	19.51%
				28	18,926	479	29.08%
				29	14,442	381	34.55%
				30	61,051	1,709	42.76%

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I found a better casino that has 1/2 deck penetration, standard burn cards, no collection fee, would you be able to run that same sim with this info now? Would be greatly grealty appreciated

Runlikegod777,

With 26 cutoff, a 10,000,000 shoe sim gives an overall EV of 8.97% with a play frequency of 13.31% and units won per 100 hands of 1.19.

These are all much more favorable than the 52 cutoff numbers of overall EV of 7.53%, frequency of 11.83%, and units won per 100 hands of 0.89 that I showed in a prior post.

To show the importance of penetration, I generated the graph below which shows the percentage of times each hand depth was reached (blue), the SB EV (green), the SB was played (purple), and (on the right axis) the SB was won (red).

As you can see by the blue line, every shoe had 70 rounds, but after that the number of rounds per shoe falls precipitously to 0 by round 86. The average number is 77.85.

The purple line shows the SB was never played in the first 8 rounds of the shoe. After that, the play frequency grows, so that after round 54 the SB is being played more than 20% of the time, and after round 71 the SB is played over 30% of the time.

The green line shows that the SB EV grows as we go deeper into the shoe, passing 10% on round 68 and 20% on those rare rounds in the 80's.

The red line shows (on the right axis) that, in general, later rounds have higher win percentages as well.



The numbers for the graph are given
Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Don't feel like starting a whole new thread on this question, so I'll ask it here.

Found a Reddit thread regarding this, but I''m not so sure it is 100% accurate.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baccarat/comments/19cvyys/ez_baccarat_house_edge/

What's worse among the Gimmick Baccarat games like EZ Baccarat and No Commission Baccarat without factoring in the side bet payouts of 40:1 or 16:1, etc.

1) Dragon 7, where a Winning 3 card Banker 7 is a push

2) Lucky 6, where a Winning 3 card Banker 6 pays 1:2


Common sense would say getting 1:2 is better than Zero, but I figured I'd ask anyway

This page comparing various forms of commission free baccarat may be helpful:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/6/

I did not see a 1:2 on 3 card 6 variant, but I may have missed it.