Baccarat odds

I recently played an online baccarat game just trying to clear a bonus. Out of roughly 1000 hands, disregarding ties, the banker won 570 and the player only 430. I was playing player of course. Needless to say the bonus was gone with these results. How uncommon would a result like this be. From my understanding the banker only has a 1.2% edge.

Over time Banker should win 1.2% more often than Player but I’ve experienced individual shoes skewed 3:1 or even more in the favor of one side or the other.

Lots of shoes might be at 2:1 around the middle then more or less even out by the end. Or not.

Looks like at least 570 bankers in 1,000 hands (excluding ties) is a 0.00354% event.

Quote: unJon

Looks like at least 570 bankers in 1,000 hands (excluding ties) is a 0.00354% event.
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To be clear, are you saying there is a .0000354 chance? Like 3.5 out of 100,000?

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: unJon

Looks like at least 570 bankers in 1,000 hands (excluding ties) is a 0.00354% event.
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To be clear, are you saying there is a .0000354 chance? Like 3.5 out of 100,000?
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That's about what I get, too - something very close to 1 / 28,000

Yes agree I just did a quick binomial calculation.

I don't worry about odds. I make the odds.

Something like making my own luck.

Quote: MDawg

I don't worry about odds. I make the odds.

Something like making my own luck.
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Quote: MDawg

... I’ve experienced individual shoes skewed 3:1 or even more in the favor of one side or the other.
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I show the probability of either side winning 75% or more of hands, not counting ties, in any given shoe is about 1 in 47,000.

Am I understanding this right? If banker wins at least 570 out of 1000 resolved hands that’s a 1/28000 event? Isn’t true odds around 510? So only 60 more is that rare of an event? If that’s the case I could show you tons of pictures like this. I have my serious doubts as to the fairness of online baccarat. I play 90% on banker and probably 80% of the time I lose more hands than I win. I have tons of pictures of player getting 5 or 6 9’s in a row. Of course i was betting banker. I don’t think I have even one picture of banker getting 5 9’s in a row.

It seems from the op’s other posts that he experiences unbelievable amounts of variance playing online games and then says to himself what are the odds of that happening. I do the same thing. I’m not a math guy so I can’t really figure that stuff out. Just yesterday over the coarse of probably 1000 blackjack hands I was down 100 units. Happens all the time. In the end I just give up and say why bother? No one is going to believe you or care. Your 2 choices are simply to continue to play and accept the variance or stop playing.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Am I understanding this right? If banker wins at least 570 out of 1000 resolved hands that’s a 1/28000 event? Isn’t true odds around 510? So only 60 more is that rare of an event? If that’s the case I could show you tons of pictures like this. I have my serious doubts as to the fairness of online baccarat. I play 90% on banker and probably 80% of the time I lose more hands than I win. I have tons of pictures of player getting 5 or 6 9’s in a row. Of course i was betting banker. I don’t think I have even one picture of banker getting 5 9’s in a row.

It seems from the op’s other posts that he experiences unbelievable amounts of variance playing online games and then says to himself what are the odds of that happening. I do the same thing. I’m not a math guy so I can’t really figure that stuff out. Just yesterday over the coarse of probably 1000 blackjack hands I was down 100 units. Happens all the time. In the end I just give up and say why bother? No one is going to believe you or care. Your 2 choices are simply to continue to play and accept the variance or stop playing.
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True odds about 507 bankers.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: MDawg

... I’ve experienced individual shoes skewed 3:1 or even more in the favor of one side or the other.
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I show the probability of either side winning 75% or more of hands, not counting ties, in any given shoe is about 1 in 47,000.
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I must be experiencing extraordinary events because not a week goes by when I don't experience at least a couple 12 Bank or 12 Player runs, and shoes where Bank or Player won more say 50 out of 80 by the end.

As far as the 2:1 or even 3:1 shoes, much more rare, but I didn't need to play 50K shoes to experience them.

Somebody up there must like me.

How rare is a shoe with 17 ties in it? Experienced that twice now, and on one of them, the 17 ties occurred in the last third of the shoe, right after I started playing the ties. I cleaned up about eighty grand on ties on that shoe, and wasn't even betting very hard.

Amazing things happen all the time. Some people win 50 hands of blackjack in a row or see 18 yos in a row.
You just never know what will happen.

Quote: Hunterhill

Some people win 50 hands of blackjack in a row
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And some people categorically misstate facts. I call you out as stating an untruth, at best, an imprecision.

And once again, you seem to lack the guts to name me outright. How do you get anywhere in life without saying what you mean?

Quote: MDawg

Since it very much seems to be still food for fodder I would point out the following three posts I made, for clarification.

Quote: MDawg

This happened some two decades ago. Could I swear it was 60 in a row? No. Which is why I say "some sixty."

But, I do know how little I was betting and how much I won. There were double downs and blackjacks along the way, but as I recall most of the hands were regular wins. You do the math on how many hands in a row I won to get some 70K betting only about eight hunny a hand. It was a lot of wins in a row.

The entire pit was in a muddle over the continuity of my wins, which is why they kept changing dealers (superstition), changing decks, even got to the point of shuffling after every single deal to me. Nothing stopped my streak. They talked about it for years to come, almost every time I went to that casino someone would mention about how I had so and so (pit boss) in a panic that night.

You know the story of the "no shoes bandit," right? cashed his social security check and took it to about a million and a half, at Blackjack, before losing it all? I have met more than one person who was present personally during that event and described it to me in detail. I am sure the no shoes bandit won a lot of hands in a row, especially initially, to get far enough ahead to start winning the seriously big big deng. What are the odds of taking $600. to a million and a half at blackjack in just a day or so? Come to think of it, what are the odds of losing a million and a half at a regular blackjack table in just a day (assuming correct play)? Streaks happen.

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Quote: MDawg

Well, what I remember is that I kept winning and winning and then when I finally lost two hands in a row I left. Which is why I recall no losses along the way....

Plus all the commotion over my streak to the point where they would deal only one hand to me and then immediately shuffle, every single time. And that they kept talking about it for years. It was quite a night. I mean, when I got a 16 and dealer had ten up I was already tucking my cards as the 5 came my way, I already knew what was coming. It was like that. There was a small crowd around me talking about how lucky I was. I didn't even consider it all that extraordinary at the time, as it was pretty much near the beginning of my gaming days. If I had realized how extraordinary it was I would have bet a lot more, which is what people were saying around me, that I should be betting maximum. Instead, I was just flat betting about eight hunny a hand. And got to about 70K ahead before I lost the two hands and left.

Again, could I swear to that I did not lose a single hand along the way? No.

I know there were pushes along the way.

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Quote: MDawg

Quote: ThatDonGuy

So it's possible that you were up 60 hands (taking blackjacks and splits/doubles into account) before you lost two in a row? That sounds more feasible than "won 60-some hands in a row."

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Possible, yes. If I understand what you are saying?

I very much recall how shocked I was that I lost two in a row, plus it was so late at night by then that I was really hungry and tired, and I just left, which is why I don't recall any losses before that although - again, I could not swear to that I did not lose a single hand along the way, nor to the exact numbers, which is why I said "some."

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As well, the shoeless bandit took $400. (it was $400. not $600., my mistake there too), to about $1.5M or so, at [a] Blackjack table(s) where the table limit at that time (Treasure Island in the mid 1990s) was I believe 2500 or 5000. (I recall seeing 10K limit Blackjack at Bellagio by about 2000, but I don't think Treasure Island had those 10K tables, almost certainly not in the mid 1990s. In the mid-1990s Golden Nugget Vegas definitely had 2500 limit Blackjack which is why it's possible that so did Treasure Island.)
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Oh so you’re saying it’s untrue that someone can win 50 hands in a row at blackjack. Ok got it

Besides what I just said above, I'm saying it's a further waste of my time to debate with someone who seems to lack the guts to at least name the person about whom he's talking.

There’s nothing to debate. Everyone knows the odds are the odds and people that claim they defy the odds are misremembering whether intentional ir not.