A Vegas Roulette bettor with an interestig strategy!

I do play European Roulette (only one zero vs 0 and 00 in American roulette) I only play red black or odd even---nothing else. As I said in one of my earlier posts I once saw black come up 9 times in row--almost unheard of in average play.

I did notice a guy hanging around the table and watched the way he played. He wouldnt bet at all until red or black came up at least 4 or 5 times in a row. Then he would plunk down $200 or 300 and would keep doubling if his color didnt come up. I saw him clean up over a 3 hour period. When I asked him about it he said it was boring because it takes so long for even 4 or 5 blacks to come up in a row. On the other hand he showed me he had won $8000 in a 4 hour period. Guess it was worth the wait lolol!! Thought u all might get a kick out of his roulette plan.
Tommy B

>I once saw black come up 9 times in row--almost unheard of in average play.

About once every 28 hours at 30 spins per hour on double 0.

About once every 22 hours at 30 spins per hour on single 0.

Nine straight blacks have a probability of 1 in 833. That's no big deal. In craps I've seen five straight 5s (1 in 59049) and six straight 8s (1 in 139314).

Quote: 7outlineaway

Nine straight blacks have a probability of 1 in 833.

People may falsely believe that 1-in-833 is the same as seeing it once every 833 spins. This is not the case.

What this means is that out of every 833 sequences of 9 spins there will be on average one occurence. 841 consecutive spins will give 833 sequences of 9 spins. So it takes 841 spins to complete the cycle. At 30 spins per hour, this is 841/30 = 28.03 hours.

Quote: zippedup

I did notice a guy hanging around the table and watched the way he played. He wouldnt bet at all until red or black came up at least 4 or 5 times in a row. Then he would plunk down $200 or 300 and would keep doubling if his color didnt come up.

This is no different from a Martingale betting system, which has been repeatedly proven not to improve a player's odds.

I remember "discovering" this surefire system on my own when I was 19. Luckily, long before I turned 21, I realized it wouldn't work out in the long run. I do understand it's lure for the mathematically challenged among us.

Check my math if you would please!
1/833 for 9 in a row. This guy was starting to bet after 3 blacks in a row. That comes out to roughly 5.6% probablity of another black coming upon spin 4. Sounds like a good bet to me and I can now see how he had $8k in winnings in about 4 hours.
Thanks for your response and the help.
Tommy B

Quote: zippedup

This guy was starting to bet after 3 blacks in a row. That comes out to roughly 5.6% probablity of another black coming upon spin 4.

The probability of black on spin 4 is either 18/38 (double 0) or 18/37 (single 0).

Quote: zippedup

He wouldnt bet at all until red or black came up at least 4 or 5 times in a row. Then he would plunk down $200 or 300 and would keep doubling if his color didnt come up.

What do you mean by "his" color? After the 5 Blacks in a row was he betting on Red or on Black? Not that it really makes any difference.

This is the age old expectation problem. The trouble is that neither the wheel nor the little white ball have any memory of the past rolls or any ability to choose what the next spin will be so as to "balance things out".

I would have no problem with putting my money on Red after there had been a sequence of four Blacks, but a sequence of 4 blacks can be followed by: Red, or Green or Black. And the odds of any particular result on that fifth spin are not affected by the results of the 4th spin.

Martingale's repeated utterances of "Double Up to Catch Up" simply made people go through their bankrolls faster. And his players still came up against betting limits!

Simply put, even though there are plenty of instances where you would see successful Martingalers, a regular Martingaler will find severely out of luck enough to find the system absolutely useless. That's because they will run against losing the 8th or 9th time in a row and hit the table limits at which point they have used their entire bankroll.

Conversely, the upside to the Martingale is only small wins. The total number of small wins will not be enough in general to overcome the 5.26% house advantage on a double 0 wheel (nor a 2.70% advantage on a single wheel).

That LCD that shows the last dozen or so spins has been a boon to casinos.


Think about it:

For every gambler that ever walked past a roulette table, looked at the LCD and said: "Look honey, red came up eight times in a row! Let's bet black," you can find someone that said "Look honey, red came up SEVEN times in a row! Let's bet black."


(substitute odd/even, high/low, etc)

Quote: DJTeddyBear

That LCD that shows the last dozen or so spins has been a boon to casinos.

I once walked past a table where all the numbers on the screen were black. Players were standing 2 deep trying to get down max bets on red. I was tempted to push my way through and plop down $20 on black (just because), but I was afraid I'd get punched.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

That LCD that shows the last dozen or so spins has been a boon to casinos.


Think about it:

For every gambler that ever walked past a roulette table, looked at the LCD and said: "Look honey, red came up eight times in a row! Let's bet black," you can find someone that said "Look honey, red came up SEVEN times in a row! Let's bet black."


(substitute odd/even, high/low, etc)

And I would add to that: "Look honey, red came up eight times in row! It's on a roll! Let's bet red!"

Substitute banker/player in baccarat, keno numbers, etc.

It's a funny bit of cognitive psychology that we all fall prey to sometimes.

Huh? You somkin somethin or what?

The odds of 1 out 833 to hit 9 reds in a row is correct. Similarly there is 1 out of 89 probability of hitting 6 reds in a row.
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The problem is that is not the proper question. The proper question is how many spins of the wheel does it take until there is better than a 50% probability of getting either 6 reds or 6 blacks in a row. I am assuming that 0 and 00 are ignored by most gamblers. Then 45 spins is enough to get more than 50% probability of a run of 6. If you get to 100 spins the odds are over 80% that you will have a streak of 6 or more.
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Most people don't understand this calculation. Most people think a run of 6 or more is very rare. I am using 6 because psychological studies say that is the point where people begin to think that something special is happening. They tend to be less impressed by runs of 5 or less.
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The readout makes people bet more and more on this psychological fallacy that almost everyone shares. It is the same as handing you a piece of paper and pencil in baccarat. Casinos love betting systems!
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Sign above hotel door: If you want to play at our casino walk on over. If you have a system then wait there and we'll send the limousine.

On August 18, 1913 the roulette wheel stopped 26 times in a row on black in the casino of Monte Carlo. A memorable event that got a lot of attention in the newspaper at that time. I think that the record still stands almost a century later. The casino cleaned up that night on people who bet on red.

It is interesting that when a craps player hits their point over and over people rush to bet with him, and not against him. It is all psychology. People want to believe that the craps player has some control over destiny, while the inanimate object should be bet against, because it is stretching the rules of the natural universe.

Evolution programmed you this way. Without the natural instinct to want to control the universe we would not have survived as a species. The idea of events happening out of human control is very depressing to most people. You bet with the dice roller, and against the machine. Nobody had to teach you this behavior. It comes naturally. If you think about rationally it makes no sense, but your super-ego can't override your id.

yes pacomartin i agree. emotions are very strong when it comes to taking over decision making, expecially the emotions of greed and fear. i once saw red come up 14 times on a roulette wheel. everyone was getting excited. i just stayed away from it and observed and took it as entertainment. there are only two sides to these kinds of streaks, are you going to ride it or buck it. either way, the longer the streak goes the higher the emontional level goes. and you usually get caught in the end.

that's why i started a thread on this subject a while back. the longer the streak goes then more it seems to go against logic, and people have a harder time grasping the occurance. at what point does it cross the line of logic and perhaps steps into the realm of supernatural? if at all.