Hypothetical AP move
It's been on my mind since MDawg made a series of posts awhile ago but I haven't found them and he has a thousand pages to go through so the gist was he had a losing streak for a few days and said he might have to quit playing Baccarat if certain protocol has been changed. He was concerned the golden goose was over but then he started winning again and it appears to have been bad variance at the time.
I asked myself what protocol could change that he could only surmise at and remembered the Golden Nugget and the pre-shuffle debacle in 2012.
What are pre-shuffle card decks?
Simple. Unopened packs of cards pre-shuffled so the dealer can just open the pack and after cutting the cards and burning a few off the top start dealing. Saves time of shuffling which at tables with thousands per hand can be quite a profitable move on the Casino part.
Are these common and has there ever been an instance where a faulty pre-shuffle was in evidence?
Yes and yes. In particular is the case of the Golden Nugget where a failure to shuffle the deck at the manufacturing stage caused a completely unshuffled deck to be dealt and Bacc players noticed and won 41 consecutive hands for a $1.5 million haul. it was apparently a bad batch and I suspect six to eight unshuffled decks were unwrapped and loaded because the pattern repeated every 15 hands and it went for 41 before the golden Nugget had enough.
https://www.casino.org/news/golden-nugget-wins-1-5-million-mini-baccarat-case/
The most glaring question is how did none of the staffing at the GN notice unshuffled cards being dealt?
The answer is when you and I open a deck we call that unshuffled but for these purposes we need to call them collated instead.
The dealer at the GN DID NOT hand out A, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Or any similarly obvious pattern.
To understand how the cards were dealt we need to look at the manufacturing process.
First the cards are printed onto a single sheet of card stock. Below is an example of the Gemaco cards used in the GN debacle.
Once the sheet is printed as above, a cutting machine cross cuts both sideways and down cutting the single sheet into each individual card (note that it is this step which creates the vulnerability to edge sorting. It's virtually impossible for every sheet to be perfectly situated and locked in place such that all sides are perfectly cut.)
After cutting, the cards are sent to a machine (it's all automated assembly style) which scoops up the cards in proper "collated" order(no RFID identification here, the sheets are all identical, the cards are cut the same, the order they are left is the same, so the scooping or collating just needs to be the same), stuffs them into package, shrink wraps and is sent off to Walmart or wherever.
OR, they go to a different machine for pre-shuffle for Casinos. Here the extra cards (joker's and company cards) are removed and then the cards are run through a machine that changes the order.
According to Gemaco, this machine uses a "complex algorithm which guarantee no two decks will be identical) and then the deck is packaged, shrink wrapped and sent off. (So they aren't using a traditional idea of a random card shuffler but instead relying on algorithms and in my experience algorithms do repeat)!
So what happened at the Golden Nugget? Take a closer look at the cards in that sheet. After cutting the cards were scooped up DOWNWARDS instead of cross-wise so without shuffling, the order resulted in this:
6S, AD, 9D, 10C, 2C, 7H, etc. (That's the first down left column order, then would come the second column from the left, etc)
In other words, not a pattern as the cards are dealt that would obvious to casino staff. In fact I suspect the players who kept track of wins and losses understood the pattern was consistent more than they recognized the way the cards were shuffled.
Now imagine if you uncovered a flaw in the manufacturing pre-shuffle such that the decks had predictable clumps. It wouldn't be perfect like at the Golden Nugget (which would be caught and fixed quickly) but if you kept track over an extended period of time (or if you had the clout you ordered a bunch of batches of pre-shuffle cards so you could lay them out and look for clump patterns,) you could in theory see certain key cards (or key card combinations) that would lead you to believe a clump pattern was imminent. In other words, the machine that does the pre-shuffle is leaving certain clumps repeatedly in order.
It wouldn't be perfect. Sometimes you might see the pattern beginning and then betting into "bets you expect to win" discover that the clump didn't hold.
You wouldn't martingale. Quite the opposite. You would drop your wagers once a pattern proved wrong, once the clump resulted in you losing because the pattern of the clump didn't hold up.
You would have losing sessions but the advantage of clumps that are predictable on a low negative expectation game like Baccarat wouldn't take much to change the expectation. Combined with comps and rebates and credit lines and whiz bang bam!
You would see key combos that would alert you to a predictable clump and you would start betting high and you would be able to correctly predict the winning outcomes for a series of wagers. It would make you look like you were... psychic.
You could claim to quit when ahead (in reality you quit when you recognize the predictable clump is past).
You would make comments like this:
And Casino staff? Hell, they see a guy who's gaming always begins with unopened packs of cards straight from the manufacturer. No matter how much they analyze his play it would appear to be nothing but sheer luck (maybe even some staff would consider the guy has great hunches) but looking at a bad algorithm that pre-shuffles with faulty clump patterns at the manufacturing level? I really don't see any Casino executive figuring it out.
Of course, If one was having several sessions where the predictable pattern didn't play out as expected, one might wonder if the faulty pre-shuffle had been fixed. To the point one might consider the gig was up.
And again, it was those few days of doubt that made me suspect this was MDawg play.
Of course I could be completely wrong. This is just a hypothetical play that would make MDawg's abilities realistic.
Again credit to Sodawater for also wondering.
Read what sodawater says in the paragraph above the one you've circled. I think that's all that's going on here. Or maybe MDawg has found some sloppy dealers where he's able to catch a glimpse of some cards while they're loading them into the shoe, hence why he says he's cutting to a specific location.
Quote: TigerWuInteresting theory, but it is in no way even remotely sustainable or repeatable. Those Golden Nugget guys got lucky with what was probably a once in a multi-lifetime opportunity, and that was obviously a mistake at the factory before they even got to the shuffling machine. There is just no way that card shuffling algorithm would be so basic and sloppy enough that you could just order a few decks from the manufacturer and figure out a pattern that would work for months, let alone years. That would be, quite literally, a billion-dollar liability to both the manufacturer and the casinos. On top of that, the number of ways you can shuffle even a single deck of cards is mind-bogglingly astronomical. Compound that up to six or eight decks for a baccarat shoe, and it becomes ludicrously unfathomable for any kind of recognizable pattern to repeat itself multiple times, even WITH a slightly imperfect algorithm.
Read what sodawater says in the paragraph above the one you've circled. I think that's all that's going on here. Or maybe MDawg has found some sloppy dealers where he's able to catch a glimpse of some cards while they're loading them into the shoe, hence why he says he's cutting to a specific location.
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Well I don't think it's as obvious as all that.
Algorithms I have been dealing with in both my film career and Casino career and if you gave me a choice of beating a human being or beating an algorithm, the decision would be maddeningly easy. I would pick the algorithm in a heartbeat.
In my personal experience algorithms are easily overcome because 1) humans put too much trust in them and 2) no matter how well written they are ultimately repeatable anomalies. An algorithm only works as well as it's written and no human can think of all the "issues".
Remember, we aren't talking a faulty shuffling machine but a faulty algorithm.
Think of the double up bug in VP.
There is no way that is what's going on.
Quote: TigerWuIf MDawg has cracked the pre-shuffled playing card algorithm to the point where he can walk up to a random baccarat table in Vegas at a random time of day and instantly start winning, and do this consistently over a span of years, I will personally nominate him for a Nobel Prize or whatever the mathematical equivalent of that is. That kind of discovery would be like Edward Thorpe times a hundred.
There is no way that is what's going on.
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It’s the Fields Medal.
Quote: TigerWuIf MDawg has cracked the pre-shuffled playing card algorithm to the point where he can walk up to a random baccarat table in Vegas at a random time of day and instantly start winning, and do this consistently over a span of years, I will personally nominate him for a Nobel Prize or whatever the mathematical equivalent of that is. That kind of discovery would be like Edward Thorpe times a hundred.
There is no way that is what's going on.
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All of the parameters you mentioned are meaningless.
Remember Phil Ivey and edge sorting? He did it at Borgata and then again at Crockfords across the ocean
What is necessary is that the playing cards are manufactured from the same company and with the same fault. Time of day for example becomes meaningless.
Let's put it this way. If you give someone 5,000 decks and they do 5,000 faulty shuffles, while you could shuffle track even that, it's likely that a human would have 5,000 different faulty shuffles.
A machine on the other hand using a faulty algorithm would replicate the fault over an over again.
It wouldn't be 5,000 variations but just a handful.
It's precisely because the shuffling is handled by an algorithm at the manufacturing stage that such a move could be played at any time of day at any venue that used those brands of cards.
However you also state MDawg would have to be able to walk up to any random table. MDawg own story is that he prefers high limit tables where he has privacy and at the size of his wagers asking for a particular brand of cards isn't going to be denied. That's certainly not walking up to any random table in any random Casino.
I'm actually quite shocked you don't see this.
Quote: TigerWuThere is just no way that card shuffling algorithm would be so basic and sloppy enough that you could just order a few decks from the manufacturer and figure out a pattern that would work for months, let alone years. That would be, quite literally, a billion-dollar liability to both the manufacturer and the casinos.
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My notoriously weak recollection seems to be that there were some court cases, large financial awards, and Gemaco may have ceased operations.
I also recall shaking my head in disgust and screaming "You didn't shuffle the cards!" when I read a few articles.
If he had that magic sauce you think he would have taken a decade off? If he had that magic sauce (for bac) you think he would waste his time winning every day at BlackJack? Come on DarkOz! Be real….
Quote: SOOPOOIf MDawg didn’t value his anonymity he’d post a video of himself laughing his ass off reading DarkOz’s theory.
If he had that magic sauce you think he would have taken a decade off? If he had that magic sauce (for bac) you think he would waste his time winning every day at BlackJack? Come on DarkOz! Be real….
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I don't recall saying anything about him doing this two decades ago.
In fact the timeline appears that he was a card counter, got caught and banned, took a decade off, heard in 2012 about the Golden Nugget episode and spent a few months/years perfecting it.
His adventures began in 2015.
I actually laugh my ass of at how people throw in details I didn't mention and make assumptions that I didn't make myself.
I also note the really serious AP's like Axel are....
RADIO SILENT!!!!
Ask yourself why?
Quote: darkozQuote: SOOPOOIf MDawg didn’t value his anonymity he’d post a video of himself laughing his ass off reading DarkOz’s theory.
If he had that magic sauce you think he would have taken a decade off? If he had that magic sauce (for bac) you think he would waste his time winning every day at BlackJack? Come on DarkOz! Be real….
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I don't recall saying anything about him doing this two decades ago.
In fact the timeline appears that he was a card counter, got caught and banned, took a decade off, heard in 2012 about the Golden Nugget episode and spent a few months/years perfecting it.
His adventures began in 2015.
I actually laugh my ass of at how people throw in details I didn't mention and make assumptions that I didn't make myself.
I also note the really serious AP's like Axel are....
RADIO SILENT!!!!
Ask yourself why?
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Because they have lives and don’t breathlessly await every post in this thread?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: darkozQuote: SOOPOOIf MDawg didn’t value his anonymity he’d post a video of himself laughing his ass off reading DarkOz’s theory.
If he had that magic sauce you think he would have taken a decade off? If he had that magic sauce (for bac) you think he would waste his time winning every day at BlackJack? Come on DarkOz! Be real….
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I don't recall saying anything about him doing this two decades ago.
In fact the timeline appears that he was a card counter, got caught and banned, took a decade off, heard in 2012 about the Golden Nugget episode and spent a few months/years perfecting it.
His adventures began in 2015.
I actually laugh my ass of at how people throw in details I didn't mention and make assumptions that I didn't make myself.
I also note the really serious AP's like Axel are....
RADIO SILENT!!!!
Ask yourself why?
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Because they have lives and don’t breathlessly await every post in this thread?
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Hardly!
What's that supposed to mean?Quote: darkozQuote: SOOPOOQuote: darkozQuote: SOOPOOIf MDawg didn’t value his anonymity he’d post a video of himself laughing his ass off reading DarkOz’s theory.
If he had that magic sauce you think he would have taken a decade off? If he had that magic sauce (for bac) you think he would waste his time winning every day at BlackJack? Come on DarkOz! Be real….
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I don't recall saying anything about him doing this two decades ago.
In fact the timeline appears that he was a card counter, got caught and banned, took a decade off, heard in 2012 about the Golden Nugget episode and spent a few months/years perfecting it.
His adventures began in 2015.
I actually laugh my ass of at how people throw in details I didn't mention and make assumptions that I didn't make myself.
I also note the really serious AP's like Axel are....
RADIO SILENT!!!!
Ask yourself why?
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Because they have lives and don’t breathlessly await every post in this thread?
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Hardly!
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I do have a wife, Animals, hobbies, things I like to go do with friends etc, Animals to tend to, I travel sometimes, I have parents, relatives and "work". I only sleep about 4-6 hours a day.
I said just about all there was to say in the other thread. You have been sucked into a situation where you are left with the slightest of doubts and your imagination is running wild. You're looking at why and how it could be happening and missing all the obvious reasons it's not.
Ill re-elaborate.
The LV stip casinos are not going to let you get away with this sort of thing unmolested for months/years at a time while rolling out the red carpet for you, as you are bragging about all the winnings online. Showing markers, telling us how he is referring big players, etc. Was it he who posted a video of himself logged on to his casino accounts' win-loss statement?
Also, IIRC someone, A casino stockholder, and a member of the forums reported him to a casino a while back. It seems unlikely that there wouldn't be some type of investigation, and yet he still goes unmolested to this day.
Also, a member of the forums claimed he had evidence from a casino employee regarding his actual wins/losses.
Suddenly or about that time this came to light, I vaguely remember something about a post where Mdawg admitted he broke even for the year or something like that. I don't know exactly how all that went down s it's possible mistaking and have the details wrong. People can chime in or go look for themself.
Whatever the case, do you really think the casinos are going to not take notice and allow something like you are suggesting to continuously go on all Yay-willy-nilly?
Who do they normally comp RFB and roll out the red carpet for?
Occam's Razor
Casinos need winners otherwise no one would gamble.
Just a thought.
They need people playing -EV games to get lucky and over-win due to variance, because there are always people who will over-lose due to variance, but it all averages out in the casino's favor. Once you add skill and +EV they no longer want you.Quote: AlanMendelsonIt's not like the casinos are going broke.
Casinos need winners otherwise no one would gamble.
Just a thought.
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Under you're theory, this seems like a colossal mistake. They should be paying him to stream his play and give him extra when he wins. They are only actually giving up a small percentage of his total action.
I guess if h was doing what you guys suspect MD of it seems as if he was a naughty little casino security personnel.
FYI The casinos do consider this a cheating move.
As it turns out, Mdawg's #1 fan was caught in a big fat lie. But most of us knew the deal anyway.
Quote: darkoz
I'm actually quite shocked you don't see this.
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I do see it and I understand exactly what you're saying.
I am saying your hypothetical advantage play is completely impossible in any practical, exploitable sense.
Quote: TigerWuQuote: darkoz
I'm actually quite shocked you don't see this.
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I do see it and I understand exactly what you're saying.
I am saying your hypothetical advantage play is completely impossible in any practical, exploitable sense.
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That's okay.
It's hypothetical.
And my actual practical multicarding advantage play has been attacked as being impossible in any practical, exploitable way as well by posters on this forum for years.
Again note, that when it comes to the AP's on the forum there is still radio silence as to the practicality of the move.
Quote: darkoz
And my actual practical multicarding advantage play has been attacked as being impossible in any practical, exploitable way as well by posters on this forum for years.
Again note, that when it comes to the AP's on the forum there is still radio silence as to the practicality of the move.
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Did they say WHY they think multicarding is impossible?
Quote: TigerWuQuote: darkoz
And my actual practical multicarding advantage play has been attacked as being impossible in any practical, exploitable way as well by posters on this forum for years.
Again note, that when it comes to the AP's on the forum there is still radio silence as to the practicality of the move.
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Did they say WHY they think multicarding is impossible?
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Over the years I have heard all types of reasons why.
Not from the AP's. From the non-AP's.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
I think this might be the post you're referring to.Quote: AxelWolf....I vaguely remember something about a post where Mdawg admitted he broke even for the year or something like that. I don't know exactly how all that went down s it's possible mistaking and have the details wrong. People can chime in or go look for themself....
Link to post
Quote: UP84I think this might be the post you're referring to.Quote: AxelWolf....I vaguely remember something about a post where Mdawg admitted he broke even for the year or something like that. I don't know exactly how all that went down s it's possible mistaking and have the details wrong. People can chime in or go look for themself....
Link to post
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Interesting because if that's the post it's a great lesson in memory retention and bias.
MDawg says he broke even for the "TRIP" and that morphed in Axel's memory into MDawg admitting he broke even for the YEAR!
if someone says he went over his Baccarat wins and losses on a trip ... yes, a trip ... but ends the statement with musings he might be about even, or slightly up or down at Bacc, well, it sounds like a shift to 'the year so far' to use that kind of language. Yes this is Mdawg, so it's not what you'd think he'd admit. Open to interpretation.Quote: darkozQuote: UP84I think this might be the post you're referring to.Quote: AxelWolf....I vaguely remember something about a post where Mdawg admitted he broke even for the year or something like that. I don't know exactly how all that went down s it's possible mistaking and have the details wrong. People can chime in or go look for themself....
Link to post
link to original post
Interesting because if that's the post it's a great lesson in memory retention and bias.
MDawg says he broke even for the "TRIP" and that morphed in Axel's memory into MDawg admitting he broke even for the YEAR!
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Quote: odiousgambitif someone says he went over his Baccarat wins and losses on a trip ... yes, a trip ... but ends the statement with musings he might be about even, or slightly up or down at Bacc, well, it sounds like a shift to 'the year so far' to use that kind of language. Yes this is Mdawg, so it's not what you'd think he'd admit. Open to interpretation.Quote: darkozQuote: UP84I think this might be the post you're referring to.Quote: AxelWolf....I vaguely remember something about a post where Mdawg admitted he broke even for the year or something like that. I don't know exactly how all that went down s it's possible mistaking and have the details wrong. People can chime in or go look for themself....
Link to post
link to original post
Interesting because if that's the post it's a great lesson in memory retention and bias.
MDawg says he broke even for the "TRIP" and that morphed in Axel's memory into MDawg admitting he broke even for the YEAR!
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MDawg was quite specific as he said THIS TRIP!
Again it's interesting how someone can make a comment as crystal clear as "here is what happened THIS TRIP" and everyone wants to infer something else.
Quote: FictionLoverAs a Fantasy-Fiction lover I have followed this thread with great interset and amusement.
DarkOz is 100% correct. Mdawgs statement in October 2021 said “about even for this trip”. HOWEVER, that was a trip that began in March of 2021 and for 7 months, if you added up the reports of win, they came to well over half a million dollars. And then one day, 7 months into that drip, with that one single line.... “About even”. Half a million in winning claims....poof!
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It's always good to see a new member here and it's always interesting to see their first post.
I'm curious to know how everyone knows how long MDawg's trips actually last when he doesn't say so himself and says he doesn't post on the actual days of play, and we really don't know how long his sessions last or what his betting amounts are.... etc etc etc
Yet... everyone thinks they have the answer? And the facts?
I have a totally different point of view.
I congratulate Mdawg on his wins. And that's all.
Until he tells me EXACTLY what he does (which he won't just like Axelwolf won't) I don't care.
Again welcome to our new forum member with a very targeted inaugural post. Amazing.
Quote: AlanMendelsonMukticarding doesnt sound impossible at all. It just sounds like a lotta lotta lotta lotta work that is very very very expensive to pull off.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
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I agree Multi carding at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL abilities.
Just like card counting at a LOW LEVEL or even slot hustling at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL ability
Personally I have done everything from card counting to roulette wheel clocking, and everything requires a HIGH LEVEL of skill and determination to be successful at a HIGH LEVEL.
I suspect if you ran with me for one month your mind would be blown with the amount of time my team and I work. Your first question after three days would probably be what do you do with all this cash, because literally at scale it becomes a problem.
However you would never question it was work. It would be impossible to not realize how time consuming and how hard it really is at the highest level. Nothing is easy
Oz has a complete different theory then what I think Mdawg is doing. I thank mdawg for getting me interested in trying to figure out his play . I personally think it’s more simple then what Oz is speculating if he’s actually playing at advantage . My theory involves certain negotiations with MULTIPLE casinos at the same time. Not easy to pull off without significant front money and or credit.
Quote: FictionLover[Content from Banned Member KewlJ, Redacted by Mod OnceDear.]
This poster sounds like the famous Billy the Kid from the western movies. Billy the kid was good with a gun
Quote: SeedvalueQuote: AlanMendelsonMukticarding doesnt sound impossible at all. It just sounds like a lotta lotta lotta lotta work that is very very very expensive to pull off.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
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I agree Multi carding at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL abilities.
Just like card counting at a LOW LEVEL or even slot hustling at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL ability
Personally I have done everything from card counting to roulette wheel clocking, and everything requires a HIGH LEVEL of skill and determination to be successful at a HIGH LEVEL.
I suspect if you ran with me for one month your mind would be blown with the amount of time my team and I work. Your first question after three days would probably be what do you do with all this cash, because literally at scale it becomes a problem.
However you would never question it was work. It would be impossible to not realize how time consuming and how hard it really is at the highest level. Nothing is easy
Oz has a complete different theory then what I think Mdawg is doing. I thank mdawg for getting me interested in trying to figure out his play . I personally think it’s more simple then what Oz is speculating if he’s actually playing at advantage . My theory involves certain negotiations with MULTIPLE casinos at the same time. Not easy to pull off without significant front money and or credit.
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That is also a theory of mine so I have two. In other words I don't really know what MDawg does which I know you agree means there is door number three which is MDawg is making the whole thing up.
(I suppose door number four would be some method even you and I cannot fathom. What odds are there on That however?)
This particular theory about pre-shuffled cards takes into account many strange posts such as the one where MDawg says maybe he cuts the cards in specific spots for a reason
Where you cut the cards would have nothing to do with comps hustling etc.
I don't think the average gambler understand how a single automated fault could exist for years without personnel discovering it and how lucrative it is when an AP has found it.
The closest thing probably is the VP double up bug.
The casinos have figured out a way to Legally cheat the player by utilizing a non random shuffle. One that deals the cards in clumps that would give the house a slightly bigger edge. If one could reverse engineer this process, and predict the clumps with a certain degree of accuracy they could use this information to their advantage.
Quote: FictionLover[Content from Banned Member KewlJ, Redacted by Mod OnceDear.]
Makes sense to a Billy the kid type guy with guns holstered in the Wild West.
But that doesn't account for all the BEATING THE GAME reports. Even if he was using negotiated rebates and whatnot to gain an advantage his win rate wouldn't be as high as he indicates. Again, I'm certain that somewhere he has poo-pooed the idea of needing a mathematical advantage or such things to beat baccarat or something along those lines, I don't recall the exact wording of any one post it's the totality of multiple posts over 4 or 5 years across multiple forums. If he's willing to accept my offer, I'll take the time to search it out, even though I really suck at searching for/ through old posts.Quote: SeedvalueQuote: AlanMendelsonMukticarding doesnt sound impossible at all. It just sounds like a lotta lotta lotta lotta work that is very very very expensive to pull off.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
link to original post
I agree Multi carding at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL abilities.
Just like card counting at a LOW LEVEL or even slot hustling at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL ability
Personally I have done everything from card counting to roulette wheel clocking, and everything requires a HIGH LEVEL of skill and determination to be successful at a HIGH LEVEL.
I suspect if you ran with me for one month your mind would be blown with the amount of time my team and I work. Your first question after three days would probably be what do you do with all this cash, because literally at scale it becomes a problem.
However you would never question it was work. It would be impossible to not realize how time consuming and how hard it really is at the highest level. Nothing is easy
Oz has a complete different theory then what I think Mdawg is doing. I thank mdawg for getting me interested in trying to figure out his play . I personally think it’s more simple then what Oz is speculating if he’s actually playing at advantage . My theory involves certain negotiations with MULTIPLE casinos at the same time. Not easy to pull off without significant front money and or credit.
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Quote: AxelWolfBut that doesn't account for all the BEATING THE GAME reports. Even if he was using negotiated rebates and whatnot to gain an advantage his win rate wouldn't be as high as he indicates. Again, I'm certain that somewhere he has poo-pooed the idea of needing a mathematical advantage or such things to beat baccarat or something along those lines, I don't recall the exact wording of any one post it's the totality of multiple posts over 4 or 5 years across multiple forums. If he's willing to accept my offer, I'll take the time to search it out, even though I really suck at searching for/ through old posts.Quote: SeedvalueQuote: AlanMendelsonMukticarding doesnt sound impossible at all. It just sounds like a lotta lotta lotta lotta work that is very very very expensive to pull off.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
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I agree Multi carding at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL abilities.
Just like card counting at a LOW LEVEL or even slot hustling at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL ability
Personally I have done everything from card counting to roulette wheel clocking, and everything requires a HIGH LEVEL of skill and determination to be successful at a HIGH LEVEL.
I suspect if you ran with me for one month your mind would be blown with the amount of time my team and I work. Your first question after three days would probably be what do you do with all this cash, because literally at scale it becomes a problem.
However you would never question it was work. It would be impossible to not realize how time consuming and how hard it really is at the highest level. Nothing is easy
Oz has a complete different theory then what I think Mdawg is doing. I thank mdawg for getting me interested in trying to figure out his play . I personally think it’s more simple then what Oz is speculating if he’s actually playing at advantage . My theory involves certain negotiations with MULTIPLE casinos at the same time. Not easy to pull off without significant front money and or credit.
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There is the possibility that he is lying about his win amounts but not about winning.
You know the old joke about men who disclose their inches. Subtract two for the real size.
I'm sure there is probably some correlation with disclosure of one's AP wins.
Quote: AxelWolfBut that doesn't account for all the BEATING THE GAME reports. Even if he was using negotiated rebates and whatnot to gain an advantage his win rate wouldn't be as high as he indicates. Again, I'm certain that somewhere he has poo-pooed the idea of needing a mathematical advantage or such things to beat baccarat or something along those lines, I don't recall the exact wording of any one post it's the totality of multiple posts over 4 or 5 years across multiple forums. If he's willing to accept my offer, I'll take the time to search it out, even though I really suck at searching for/ through old posts.Quote: SeedvalueQuote: AlanMendelsonMukticarding doesnt sound impossible at all. It just sounds like a lotta lotta lotta lotta work that is very very very expensive to pull off.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
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I agree Multi carding at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL abilities.
Just like card counting at a LOW LEVEL or even slot hustling at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL ability
Personally I have done everything from card counting to roulette wheel clocking, and everything requires a HIGH LEVEL of skill and determination to be successful at a HIGH LEVEL.
I suspect if you ran with me for one month your mind would be blown with the amount of time my team and I work. Your first question after three days would probably be what do you do with all this cash, because literally at scale it becomes a problem.
However you would never question it was work. It would be impossible to not realize how time consuming and how hard it really is at the highest level. Nothing is easy
Oz has a complete different theory then what I think Mdawg is doing. I thank mdawg for getting me interested in trying to figure out his play . I personally think it’s more simple then what Oz is speculating if he’s actually playing at advantage . My theory involves certain negotiations with MULTIPLE casinos at the same time. Not easy to pull off without significant front money and or credit.
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I agree with you.
When I looked at everything I just assumed he was giving out Just enough miss information to not reveal what he’s actually doing.
It’s still most likely all made up, but it’s definitely not impossible to negotiate a scenario that produces a player advantage. Now how long the casino lets you hammer that edge is the question. My guess is not that long will see.
Quote: FictionLover[Content from Banned Member KewlJ, Redacted by Mod OnceDear.]
I do believe on his True-passage blog he had started a section dedicated to listing multiple members of various forms and talking $h*t about them.
I absolutely agree and know this and other like +EV situations are happening.Quote: SeedvalueQuote: AxelWolfBut that doesn't account for all the BEATING THE GAME reports. Even if he was using negotiated rebates and whatnot to gain an advantage his win rate wouldn't be as high as he indicates. Again, I'm certain that somewhere he has poo-pooed the idea of needing a mathematical advantage or such things to beat baccarat or something along those lines, I don't recall the exact wording of any one post it's the totality of multiple posts over 4 or 5 years across multiple forums. If he's willing to accept my offer, I'll take the time to search it out, even though I really suck at searching for/ through old posts.Quote: SeedvalueQuote: AlanMendelsonMukticarding doesnt sound impossible at all. It just sounds like a lotta lotta lotta lotta work that is very very very expensive to pull off.
In fact many of us multi card but only with two cards. I used my girlfriend's card... and I gave my card to a friend in LA so he could use my free play at an Indian casino for six months that I couldn't pick up.
I see people at Suncoast scanning two cards all the time at the kiosk for promotions and they were likely friend's cards.
I'd say multicarding is probably the easiest thing to pull off. It requires low level abilities.
Card counting, edge sorting, wheel tracking, shuffle tracking and of course TRUE DICE INFLUENCING (not the fairy tale DI) are in the province of very few players.
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I agree Multi carding at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL abilities.
Just like card counting at a LOW LEVEL or even slot hustling at a LOW LEVEL requires LOW LEVEL ability
Personally I have done everything from card counting to roulette wheel clocking, and everything requires a HIGH LEVEL of skill and determination to be successful at a HIGH LEVEL.
I suspect if you ran with me for one month your mind would be blown with the amount of time my team and I work. Your first question after three days would probably be what do you do with all this cash, because literally at scale it becomes a problem.
However you would never question it was work. It would be impossible to not realize how time consuming and how hard it really is at the highest level. Nothing is easy
Oz has a complete different theory then what I think Mdawg is doing. I thank mdawg for getting me interested in trying to figure out his play . I personally think it’s more simple then what Oz is speculating if he’s actually playing at advantage . My theory involves certain negotiations with MULTIPLE casinos at the same time. Not easy to pull off without significant front money and or credit.
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I agree with you.
When I looked at everything I just assumed he was giving out Just enough miss information to not reveal what he’s actually doing.
It’s still most likely all made up, but it’s definitely not impossible to negotiate a scenario that produces a player advantage. Now how long the casino lets you hammer that edge is the question. My guess is not that long will see.
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I think after multiple years it would have been long past due to end, especially when you are on multiple forums posting up about all your continuous winning, comps, tournaments, gift cards, videos of your online win-loss statements, pictures of markers chips, cash, etc.
People successfully pulling this stuff off on the levels he's been suggesting go out of their way to stay off the radar at all costs. People get added to OSN, Biometrica, and Griffin for much much less than he is claiming. They are notorious for targeting people who play double deck. and that's exactly what MD claims to play. That would probably end your gig at many locations.
What wouldn't end your gig... is... if it wasn't actually happening and or you were actually a losing player who they loved.
Yet you are still a practicing and successful AP.
Many do, many don't. There are many numbers of casinos I have been trespassed from. I find various ways around that when needed.Quote: AlanMendelsonAxel can you honestly say the casinos don't know who you are?
Yet you are still a practicing and successful AP.
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I will often go back after a certain period of time regardless.
Quote: AxelWolfMany do, many don't. There are many numbers of casinos I have been trespassed from. I find various ways around that when needed.Quote: AlanMendelsonAxel can you honestly say the casinos don't know who you are?
Yet you are still a practicing and successful AP.
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I will often go back after a certain period of time regardless.
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So my point is perhaps Mdawg has arrangements at certain casinos, too.
It doesn't stop my operation.
Here is a weird one. XYZ Casino verbally trespassed and walked out one of my guys and told him to his face he had been identified as part of my team. They even gave him my exact name.
At that moment I was in that same Casino in their hotel on my comped room and so I awaited security to come and evict me as well.
And two years after that day I still get comp rooms, freeplay and have a host on my own personal player's card.
Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes.
Oftentimes security doesn't communicate with the hotel or marketing and things fall through the cracks. You are talking about the exception, not the rule. It's doubtful you would be able to get very far sitting at a private high-limit table if you were tagged. Also, you guys keep saying things are much different from LV and The EC.Quote: darkozI happen to know I am in both OSN and Biometrica and that as late as just last year I was identified and papered in a particular location.
It doesn't stop my operation.
Here is a weird one. XYZ Casino verbally trespassed and walked out one of my guys and told him to his face he had been identified as part of my team. They even gave him my exact name.
At that moment I was in that same Casino in their hotel on my comped room and so I awaited security to come and evict me as well.
And two years after that day I still get comp rooms, freeplay and have a host on my own personal player's card.
Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes.
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Quote: AxelWolfOftentimes security doesn't communicate with the hotel or marketing and things fall through the cracks. You are talking about the exception, not the rule. It's doubtful you would be able to get very far sitting at a private high-limit table if you were tagged. Also, you guys keep saying things are much different from LV and The EC.Quote: darkozI happen to know I am in both OSN and Biometrica and that as late as just last year I was identified and papered in a particular location.
It doesn't stop my operation.
Here is a weird one. XYZ Casino verbally trespassed and walked out one of my guys and told him to his face he had been identified as part of my team. They even gave him my exact name.
At that moment I was in that same Casino in their hotel on my comped room and so I awaited security to come and evict me as well.
And two years after that day I still get comp rooms, freeplay and have a host on my own personal player's card.
Truth is stranger than fiction sometimes.
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I mean I am still getting comped at that location because I still play there on my card. I don't do table games (I have played and know the rules but I AP slots and comps) but I have hit for major jackpots at that very location in high limit rooms
I'm telling you it's strange. They threw out the hired help and welcome in the mastermind!
As far as EC, I think you refer to rules about Advantage players having more rights. That's really only Atlantic City.
However I do believe the major difference may be more esoteric. With Casinos in most states spread out (NY, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, etc,) you don't have a major employees market grouped together.
For example security in Vegas Casinos is probably made of people who just worked across the street.
Whereas in say Pennsylvania, two Casinos may be an hour apart so the local hires aren't guys who just left their other Casino security gig.
They end up training new hires I imagine a lot more often than in Vegas.
So experience may be a major factor in how things are handled on the East Coast vs. West coast.
Anyone remotely AP savvy or into gambling math realizes just how ridiculous of a question like that is. Everyone playing basic strategy would've been rich in no time.Quote: MDawgIt was before my time, but the norm used to be 2:1 on BJ no?
Occasionally casinos ran special promotions where they paid 2:1
Quote: AxelWolfBack to your theory MD has somehow figured out some secret undetectable +EV situation.
Anyone remotely AP savvy or into gambling math realizes just how ridiculous of a question like that is. Everyone playing basic strategy would've been rich in no time.Quote: MDawgIt was before my time, but the norm used to be 2:1 on BJ no?
Occasionally casinos ran special promotions where they paid 2:1
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What I have discovered over time is that the most savvy person in the room can still make ridiculous suggestions, decisions or promotion of views.
Arthur Conan Doyle famously wrote about using logic and reasoning with his Sherlock Holmes character while promoting shall we say skeptical views of fairies and the afterlife.
Those views don't mean that the use of logical thinking he espoused are worthless.
What I am saying is it seems people try to disprove ones knowledge or abilities by pointing to some other situation that person may be wrong.
Sometimes that is correct to point out. But many times it's not.
Sounds great, but in this case, I'm going with... If it looks like a duck, walks and talks like a duck...Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfBack to your theory MD has somehow figured out some secret undetectable +EV situation.
Anyone remotely AP savvy or into gambling math realizes just how ridiculous of a question like that is. Everyone playing basic strategy would've been rich in no time.Quote: MDawgIt was before my time, but the norm used to be 2:1 on BJ no?
Occasionally casinos ran special promotions where they paid 2:1
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What I have discovered over time is that the most savvy person in the room can still make ridiculous suggestions, decisions or promotion of views.
Arthur Conan Doyle famously wrote about using logic and reasoning with his Sherlock Holmes character while promoting shall we say skeptical views of fairies and the afterlife.
Those views don't mean that the use of logical thinking he espoused are worthless.
What I am saying is it seems people try to disprove ones knowledge or abilities by pointing to some other situation that person may be wrong.
Sometimes that is correct to point out. But many times it's not.
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It is very likely that there are lots of weird things like this within the casino business and other businesses that get exploited from time to time. It's usually just plain old laziness and incompetence.
What we do know is that MDawg is legit in that he does win the amounts he says he wins, loses the amounts he says he loses, and likely employs multiple methods to nudge the edge to his favor. Why he hasn't been 86'd makes me think he offers the casinos he plays at some other perks(likely from his rolex business?) that they're making far more from his friends gambling than they lose from MDawg winning.
Quote: ChallengedMillyI'm an MTG player and pretty much every table top card game in the past 20 years has had this happen at least a few times do to screw ups from the manufacturer, or sorting teams. I worked briefly for the company that physically printed, sealed,and shipped MTG cards and I was able to do some nefarious not-illegal-but-ethically-dubious things to many sealed packs that I knew would end up at a particular store, where I then purchased those boxes and packs when released, and turned those packs+boxes into a large profit.
It is very likely that there are lots of weird things like this within the casino business and other businesses that get exploited from time to time. It's usually just plain old laziness and incompetence.
What we do know is that MDawg is legit in that he does win the amounts he says he wins, loses the amounts he says he loses, and likely employs multiple methods to nudge the edge to his favor. Why he hasn't been 86'd makes me think he offers the casinos he plays at some other perks(likely from his rolex business?) that they're making far more from his friends gambling than they lose from MDawg winning.
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Hey...do you like giving interviews? It can be anonymous; but I think I understand exactly what you were doing, and how. I've been doing a series that started off about collectibles, generally, but with a focus on MTG.
it's not just that MDAwg claims to beat the 2 games he plays - except for the period when he went over his results with Wizard for whatever period of time and found that he was "about even"
interesting that the one time - as far as I know - that the Wizard looked at his results for a significant length of time - that's what he found
the thing is that he claims to totally dominate the casinos - winning such a very, very high % of the time
and not only that - the casinos continue to be tremendously generous to him - awarding him high dollar comps - despite the fact that he's been crushing them for years
he started posting here in 2018 - 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 5 𝙮𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙜𝙤 - his original Adventures thread is 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 4 𝙮𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙨 𝙤𝙡𝙙
I don't think the results thread will change anything - those who believe him will continue to believe - those who don't will continue not to believe
but it will show how extreme his claims are - and maybe, just maybe, that has some value
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