Card Counting in Baccarat

It's hard to find things to write about in a time when many casinos are closed and those that are open are not trying anything new.

However, one topic I've had on my list of ideas is card counting in baccarat. It can be used to cut down the house edge, but very very rarely will it overcome it. That said, please visit my new page on Card Counting in Baccarat. It shows how to easily cut down the house edge of 0.93%.

I'm sure someone will say to just play blackjack, which I agree with. However, this at least addresses the topic in more depth than I've ever seen done before.

I welcome all comments on my article.

The question for the poll is what is your baccarat strategy?

Heh. I get it. You've been asked about this on the LiveStream so many times that you can now simply tell people to go to your website.

Mike, first off let me say thanks! Your website resources on Baccarat are totally outstanding. They really demonstrate, for those who are willing to listen, that the mathematics of Baccarat are well understood and that there’s no magic bullet to the game.

I count cards in Baccarat using Eliot Jacobson’s system (10,9 = 0, 1,2,3 =-1, 4 =-2, 5,7,8=1 and 6=2). I bet on Banker until the true count hits about +2 or so, then I'll switch to Player. If the true count is in the range of -2 to +3, I'll usually bet only half my normal wager. If the count gets anywhere from about -6 to +6, which usually happens near the end of the shoe, I’ll double my normal wager.

As you’ve pointed out before, there is NO WAY to practically use a counting system to turn Baccarat into a +EV game. The best one can hope for is to lessen the house edge a little bit. I count in order to do that, and to make the game a little more interesting.

Your system is really nice. I very much like how your Level 2 strategy uses a running count coupled with the progression on the Bead Plate to somewhat approximate the true count. Very ingenious.

Note, in the Level 2 section I was unable to see the image of the Bead Plate with the player in the sixth column (it may just have been my browser).

Quote: Gialmere

Heh. I get it. You've been asked about this on the LiveStream so many times that you can now simply tell people to go to your website.

Issue

In the Level 2 strategy section you reference an image of the Bead Plate, but no image is actually presented.

Thanks. I had some technical issues with that. Here it is.

Quote: UP84

Mike, first off let me say thanks! Your website resources on Baccarat are totally outstanding. They really demonstrate, for those who are willing to listen, that the mathematics of Baccarat are well understood and that there’s no magic bullet to the game.

Thank you! And you're welcome.

Quote:

I count cards in Baccarat using Eliot Jacobson’s system (10,9 = 0, 1,2,3 =-1, 4 =-2, 5,7,8=1 and 6=2). I bet on Banker until the true count hits about +2 or so, then I'll switch to Player. If the true count is in the range of -2 to +3, I'll usually bet only half my normal wager. If the count gets anywhere from about -6 to +6, which usually happens near the end of the shoe, I’ll double my normal wager.

Thanks for mentioning this. I didn't know Eliot wrote about this. There is a strong effect of the 4 and the 6, so maybe I'll analyze Eliot's system next.

Remember the EV of the best bet isn't the worst at zero. In the case of my count, it's at -4.

Quote: Wizard

It's hard to find things to write about in a time when many casinos are closed and those that are open are not trying anything new.

However, one topic I've had on my list of ideas is card counting in baccarat. It can be used to cut down the house edge, but very very rarely will it overcome it. That said, please visit my new page on Card Counting in Baccarat. It shows how to easily cut down the house edge of 0.93%.

I'm sure someone will say to just play blackjack, which I agree with. However, this at least addresses the topic in more depth than I've ever seen done before.

I welcome all comments on my article.

The question for the poll is what is your baccarat strategy?

My strategy for online game, use ev calculator to find ev after each hand . . . . .and yet still NOT worth to play it, unless you have other promo/rebate . . . .

Wizard,

Can you address card counting for the tie bet?

I never tried it but here is my thoughts.

In an 8 deck shoe there are 416 cards total.

128 cards are zero value cards (10, J,Q,K)

So what if you counted to determine when there is a "zero value" rich deck and bet tie.

The idea being a deck heavy in zero value cards will result in tie more often at a nice 8:1 payout

Quote: darkoz

Wizard,

Can you address card counting for the tie bet?

I have looked at that. If must have +EV, that is where you'll most often find it. However, only rarely towards the end of the shoe. The vast majority of the time, the house edge is a tall mountain to overcome.

However, maybe I'll come up with something. Baccarat is slow enough somebody could keep a side Tie count.

Newbie to Wizard forum, started today with Jacks or Better. Two things make me very curious. The first, even though most of the ANALYZE columns are self explanatory if one is familiar with game. For instance I know what the EV value represents, but I am interpreting the LOSE column as representing the number of time selection lost within the overall sample size. Second thing, why is a given HOLD selection have a "Not the Best Play" warning when preferred HOLD selection may have a higher EV value, the LOSE column may show the preferred HOLD selection has an order of magnitude more losses than what is typically advised for. Case in point has suited A, Q, J and 3. This hold selection shows the LOSE column of 39. The preferred HOLD consists of the A, Q and J even though the LOSE column shows losses of over 1,000. I may be recalling the value not exactly, but it is substantial compared to the four-to-a-flush which is my default HOLD selection other than a high pair.

I know I'm missing something crucial, would you set me straight? I haven't been to Vegas in a while and I'm itching to get back in the game. And there are a few Hard Rock casinos in Florida.

Thanks for you time
FlaTrips

Quote: FlaTrips

Newbie to Wizard forum, ....

Welcome to the forum.

Please post your question in the video poker section. I would suggest making a new thread for it.

Thank you.