Card Counting in Baccarat
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15 members have voted
However, one topic I've had on my list of ideas is card counting in baccarat. It can be used to cut down the house edge, but very very rarely will it overcome it. That said, please visit my new page on Card Counting in Baccarat. It shows how to easily cut down the house edge of 0.93%.
I'm sure someone will say to just play blackjack, which I agree with. However, this at least addresses the topic in more depth than I've ever seen done before.
I welcome all comments on my article.
The question for the poll is what is your baccarat strategy?
I count cards in Baccarat using Eliot Jacobson’s system (10,9 = 0, 1,2,3 =-1, 4 =-2, 5,7,8=1 and 6=2). I bet on Banker until the true count hits about +2 or so, then I'll switch to Player. If the true count is in the range of -2 to +3, I'll usually bet only half my normal wager. If the count gets anywhere from about -6 to +6, which usually happens near the end of the shoe, I’ll double my normal wager.
As you’ve pointed out before, there is NO WAY to practically use a counting system to turn Baccarat into a +EV game. The best one can hope for is to lessen the house edge a little bit. I count in order to do that, and to make the game a little more interesting.
Your system is really nice. I very much like how your Level 2 strategy uses a running count coupled with the progression on the Bead Plate to somewhat approximate the true count. Very ingenious.
Note, in the Level 2 section I was unable to see the image of the Bead Plate with the player in the sixth column (it may just have been my browser).
Quote: GialmereHeh. I get it. You've been asked about this on the LiveStream so many times that you can now simply tell people to go to your website.
In the Level 2 strategy section you reference an image of the Bead Plate, but no image is actually presented.
Thanks. I had some technical issues with that. Here it is.
Quote: UP84Mike, first off let me say thanks! Your website resources on Baccarat are totally outstanding. They really demonstrate, for those who are willing to listen, that the mathematics of Baccarat are well understood and that there’s no magic bullet to the game.
Thank you! And you're welcome.
Quote:I count cards in Baccarat using Eliot Jacobson’s system (10,9 = 0, 1,2,3 =-1, 4 =-2, 5,7,8=1 and 6=2). I bet on Banker until the true count hits about +2 or so, then I'll switch to Player. If the true count is in the range of -2 to +3, I'll usually bet only half my normal wager. If the count gets anywhere from about -6 to +6, which usually happens near the end of the shoe, I’ll double my normal wager.
Thanks for mentioning this. I didn't know Eliot wrote about this. There is a strong effect of the 4 and the 6, so maybe I'll analyze Eliot's system next.
Remember the EV of the best bet isn't the worst at zero. In the case of my count, it's at -4.
Quote: WizardIt's hard to find things to write about in a time when many casinos are closed and those that are open are not trying anything new.
However, one topic I've had on my list of ideas is card counting in baccarat. It can be used to cut down the house edge, but very very rarely will it overcome it. That said, please visit my new page on Card Counting in Baccarat. It shows how to easily cut down the house edge of 0.93%.
I'm sure someone will say to just play blackjack, which I agree with. However, this at least addresses the topic in more depth than I've ever seen done before.
I welcome all comments on my article.
The question for the poll is what is your baccarat strategy?
My strategy for online game, use ev calculator to find ev after each hand . . . . .and yet still NOT worth to play it, unless you have other promo/rebate . . . .
Can you address card counting for the tie bet?
I never tried it but here is my thoughts.
In an 8 deck shoe there are 416 cards total.
128 cards are zero value cards (10, J,Q,K)
So what if you counted to determine when there is a "zero value" rich deck and bet tie.
The idea being a deck heavy in zero value cards will result in tie more often at a nice 8:1 payout
Quote: darkozWizard,
Can you address card counting for the tie bet?
I have looked at that. If must have +EV, that is where you'll most often find it. However, only rarely towards the end of the shoe. The vast majority of the time, the house edge is a tall mountain to overcome.
However, maybe I'll come up with something. Baccarat is slow enough somebody could keep a side Tie count.
I know I'm missing something crucial, would you set me straight? I haven't been to Vegas in a while and I'm itching to get back in the game. And there are a few Hard Rock casinos in Florida.
Thanks for you time
FlaTrips
Quote: FlaTripsNewbie to Wizard forum, ....
Welcome to the forum.
Please post your question in the video poker section. I would suggest making a new thread for it.
Thank you.
Quote: camz1969I saw this was already mentioned, but I have also been curious about the frequency of a shoe having enough 10 cards to have an edge with the tie bet (hitting 0-0). Unlike blackjack one good thing is it’s not as awkward to skip a lot of hands. You could even stand behind and back count the whole time since casinos aren’t really suspicious about bac being beaten. You’re just ‘looking for patterns.’ I would think the problem is the speed of the game is so slow it would take forever to see a shoe rich enough for 0-0 ties to hit frequently enough to be worth the effort.
That is addressed in my baccarat appendix 2.
Being an admirer of simplicity, I can't help but remind that 100 Bit Dice by 4ThePlayer (so-called Bitcoin Dice for regulated casinos) has 99% - for 50:50 paying 1.98x or under 49.50 paying 2.00x. That leaves only 0.05% above what's granted without thinking at all. Too little to think. :-)
May I also remind that two casinos in central London, Empire and Hippodrome, offer "Red 8" rule on Baccarat, where any Red 8 in Banker's hand pays 1:1. They still have it on at least one table. That's been mentioned back in 2012:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/7660-baccarat-variation-offered-in-the-uk/2/
Charlie calculated the overall RTP to be 99.19% through not yet authoritatively. Maybe it's a good time to add the "Red 8" rule to your appendix. That, of course, consumes all the effort in the standard game.
Still above "Red 8" is 4% commission in Isleta Resort & Casino in Albuquerque and online at 5Dimes Casino. The latter lowers the commission on Banker to 2.75% (4 pays 3.89) every Monday from 2pm to 8pm ET (6h/week) which is, essentially, a coin flip.
Thanks
The problem with this type of ratio (10s/non-10s), is that at most values it's an incredibly inefficient measure of the probability of a tie. This is because some non-10 cards (A,8 & 9s) push the probability of a tie one way, while other non-10 cards push the probability of a tie the other way (the 6 and 7 pushing it very strongly the other way). For example, given the ultra rare ratio of 30 to 1, the probability of a tie is most likely enough to beat the house edge (I haven't done the math on this), but at lower and more common values, the ratio will be practically meaningless.Quote: camz1969...That simulation was for ALL 10s though. I still wonder what 10/non10 ratio actually give you an edge. If ALL 10s is 800% edge what ratio would you need for just a 1% edge? Like if I assign +1 to ALL non 10 cards what count would give a positive expectation?
Since we are betting on player on running counts of -4 or greater, and the cards with a negative count attached are 5 through 8, isn't this backwards? So a deck rich in high cards is good for banker, and low cards is good for player? Or am I missing something?
Thanks
Quote: BjkdlrI have a question about the main baccarat counting page on Wizard of Odds website. It states that "Looking at this from the perspective of the Player bet, a deck rich in high cards is good. That is why it is bad for the Player bet when they leave the deck. The flip side of that coin is a deck rich in low cards is good for the Banker bet. Thus, if a low card leaves the shoe, that improves the odds on the Player and if a high card leaves, it's good for the Banker."
Since we are betting on player on running counts of -4 or greater, and the cards with a negative count attached are 5 through 8, isn't this backwards? So a deck rich in high cards is good for banker, and low cards is good for player? Or am I missing something?
Thanks
A deck rich in low cards(Ace, 2,3,4) is good for PLAYER
