DrEntropy
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
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November 11th, 2010 at 8:15:39 PM permalink
I was playing craps today and someone rolled 5 out of 6 numbers. I never bet the fire bet (high house edge) but I felt pretty left out when people were being paid off. Two guys at $5 on it and got pushed $1250 each. Maybe I should just break down and put a buck on the damn thing?
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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November 11th, 2010 at 8:17:05 PM permalink
Keep the faith, and stay away from sucker bets. Read my signature.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DrEntropy
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
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November 11th, 2010 at 8:21:08 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Keep the faith, and stay away from sucker bets. Read my signature.


I may have to put that signature on a card I keep in my wallet!
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
7winner
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
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November 11th, 2010 at 8:36:26 PM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

I was playing craps today and someone rolled 5 out of 6 numbers. I never bet the fire bet (high house edge) but I felt pretty left out when people were being paid off. Two guys at $5 on it and got pushed $1250 each. Maybe I should just break down and put a buck on the damn thing?



Yes, but the best thing about that "left out" feeling is it did not cost you anything.
Sucker bets, like The Wizard says, stay away. You make more money by not betting them as you do in betting them.

And those players that rave about the Fire Bet and hardways and horn bets are the loud ones to say they won!

Those same players you saw getting paid off $1250 each probably lost $2500 or more to get the $1250 payoff.

That is why it is called a sucker bet. After many many losses, the taste is finally a sweet one.

At the Fire Bet website: http://www.hopbet.com/
“FIRE BETS” payoffs can be thought of as being similar to a six spot Keno ticket, wherein a player will be paid for 4, 5 or 6 “Individual Points” made,"

comparing the bet to Keno... now that is the biggest clue! Stay away!
7 winner chicken dinner!
Doc
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
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November 11th, 2010 at 9:06:06 PM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

Maybe I should just break down and put a buck on the damn thing?

I feel that depends a bit on your objective. If you are trying to maximize your financial position (given that you are playing a -EV game), then the Wizard's advice makes sense. On the other hand, if you are just trying to have some fun, then your decisions might be different. I occasionally put $1 on the fire bet, much the way I buy lottery tickets and place hard way bets. I know it's not one of the better wagers, but it might contribute to your fun even if it doesn't win. Besides, I'm in positive deviation territory on the fire bet -- just by chance, of course. Back in August I reported hitting $250 for $1 win at Harrah's Tunica, and I doubt that I have yet placed the wager 250 times.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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November 12th, 2010 at 3:32:54 AM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

Maybe I should just break down and put a buck on the damn thing?

That is how the dealers "sell" the bet. "Hey, its only a buck and you will feel miserable if someone else hits it and you don't". Many such side bets are really subject to a similar spiel in other games.

Are you going to start listening to the Stick Man and do all that Center Bet stuff?

Maybe you should play 6:5 blackjack, after all that dealer is really cute and half naked.

Maybe you should play Keno or maybe you should buy a Lottery Ticket. How about Flip It?

The principle is the same: Intelligent action and an intelligent allocation of your budget. Even the 20 spot Keno Ticket is a really sensible choice, if you happen to win it. The fact that no one in decades has done it doesn't matter.

The payout is enticing on that FireBet... that is why it was invented. Sucker bet? Yes.
focd
focd
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November 12th, 2010 at 5:04:36 AM permalink
My views have changed on those sucker bets. I see a lot of people who know how to play craps throw dollars on those bets. I guess it is a part of the craps experience. I mean it's not too bad to make like 50 dollars of those bets (expected loss of 5 bucksish?). I guess if the dice are hot you can do the hard ways. I really don't think it's as bad as it sounds as I thought before because hardly anyone bets above 5 dollars for those anyway. It's fun once in a while if you hit those. I mean it is annoying when the stick tries to tell you "oh come on it's a dollar only" kind of crap but if you limit yourself to only a few of those once in a while then I guess it's ok. It's ok to throw some dollars out there if you are up or you are down to your last few dollars. I think doing that might give you a chance to come back if you're down to your last few dollars.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 12th, 2010 at 5:14:30 AM permalink
I feel your pain. Then again, I *usually* get the FireBet.

Yeah, I can't argue the fact that it's a sucker bet.

But, unlike the sucker bets on any other game (and that includes the Poker For Roulette side bet that I have developed), this one has the appeal of being a single bet that remains unresolved for an extended duration, with no ability to make that bet after the initial betting period.

That single fact is one of the primary reasons it appeals to me.

And that it's only a buck, during which time I could be risking over a hundred before seeing a profit.

And that if it hits, you feel like dirt if you forgot to throw down a measley buck.



But the flip side of the coin is quite nice too:

Even if you didn't make the bet, if the FireBet hits, and you've had your bets spread out at all, you're still making money (unless you're a Don't bettor).
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 12th, 2010 at 12:02:33 PM permalink
Quote: focd

My views have changed on those sucker bets. I see a lot of people who know how to play craps throw dollars on those bets. I guess it is a part of the craps experience. I mean it's not too bad to make like 50 dollars of those bets (expected loss of 5 bucksish?). I guess if the dice are hot you can do the hard ways. I really don't think it's as bad as it sounds as I thought before because hardly anyone bets above 5 dollars for those anyway. It's fun once in a while if you hit those. I mean it is annoying when the stick tries to tell you "oh come on it's a dollar only" kind of crap but if you limit yourself to only a few of those once in a while then I guess it's ok. It's ok to throw some dollars out there if you are up or you are down to your last few dollars. I think doing that might give you a chance to come back if you're down to your last few dollars.



You have to realize that placing a $5 hardway bet is exactly equivalent to throwing fifty cents over your shoulder. It doesn't take many repetitions of this act to add up to throwing a $5 bill over your shoulder, then $10, then $20...and the casino is the one that bends down, picks that money up, and puts it in its pocket.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
focd
focd
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November 12th, 2010 at 12:10:45 PM permalink
I have to agree that 5 bucks for hardways is a lot. I think a buck or 2 is fine. But if you are up by a lot and want to go for the homerun hit then you really aren't risking too much if you put like a quarter for a hardway.

EDIT- actually I think you are right - I don't make those bets and I am not sure but I think they always ask if you want it back up after it hits an easy number - it's weird when you just bet it once because they keep asking if you want it back up - you can lose a lot quickly

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