Mosca
Mosca
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June 17th, 2019 at 8:23:29 PM permalink
I wasnít looking for it, but I found one. I could read one exact card. Every time. I watched half a dozen hands to make sure. I could see rank and suit both. And, I could see one card out of every other hand dealt, too, except for the one right next to me. One EXACT card.

Thing is, not being an AP I didnít know how to take advantage. The easy plays were straight up: I saw the Kc, and folded Q96. I tried a couple plays with garbage, pretending that I was stupid so as to cover my tracks; once I won when the dealer didnít qualify, once I lost when he paired the 3d that I saw (bad luck).

Since then I have read the information available, and have a better understanding of the tilt available. But how can you cover playing garbage hands that would normally fold?
NO KILL I
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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Thanks for this post from:
MoscaForager
June 17th, 2019 at 8:31:54 PM permalink
Just ďplay it blindĒ and donít even look if you know itís a hand youíre playing anything, donít have to justify it then. FYI if you misread like one paint card an hour the edge is gone, easy to be delusional and think you have an edge thatís not really there on that game, many APís wonít even play that game. Or just play unknown paint strategy if making errors.
Mosca
Mosca
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June 17th, 2019 at 8:44:07 PM permalink
Thanks. That session I was more surprised than anything to find this. Iím not usually very observant, and even with the awareness sometimes I forgot to watch. And, I played pairs plus and the bonus bet, which would negate any advantage right away. To do it right I would have to play just the base game, I know.

I read Jacobsonís account of how it can be a grind, and how you can still lose the bank. The other night I had $100 at a $10 table, nowhere near enough. I was killing time while Mrs Mosca played slots. I got up to $155, then down to $50 and cashed out. Played about 2 hours on that $100, though, and had fun learning how to watch the cards get dealt. I felt like Superman: ď7d. Kc. Kh. 3c. Jd. 5s.Ē Every hand. Plus one card from each of four or five other hands around the table.

No guarantees, but a new fun thing to try.
NO KILL I
prozema
prozema
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June 17th, 2019 at 8:52:21 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

. FYI if you misread like one paint card an hour the edge is gone, easy to be delusional and think you have an edge thatís not really there on that game, many APís wonít even play that game. Or just play unknown paint strategy if making errors.



Please explain this to me like I'm a 3rd grader.

How does one hand at a 3% disadvantage offset 40 hands at a 3% advantage?
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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June 17th, 2019 at 9:04:35 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

Please explain this to me like I'm a 3rd grader.

How does one hand at a 3% disadvantage offset 40 hands at a 3% advantage?



Ok I admit I didnít do the math myself thatís word of mouth from a more experienced professional so that may not be entirely accurate, and from years ago so sometimes memories change. I may be misremembering the quote it could have been referring to the most costly paint misread to make a point, or even remembering A/2/3 instead of paint.

Youíre not playing at just a 3% disadvantage on that hand, however, is an accurate point. Consider you see J when itís K and play 4/6/8, thatís going to be very costly and much higher than 3% disadvantage, why I would generally recommend just playing unknown paint for inexperienced players.
prozema
prozema
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June 17th, 2019 at 9:13:43 PM permalink
If you are hole carding 3cp, you are basically playing 1 card poker.

I totally agree that you have to be realistic on whether you saw the card or not. Also, reading a k as a j puts you at a huge disadvantage but that misread goes the other way too.

A jack has a red hat.
Kings and queens have yellow hats.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
Mosca
Mosca
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June 17th, 2019 at 9:14:18 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

Please explain this to me like I'm a 3rd grader.

How does one hand at a 3% disadvantage offset 40 hands at a 3% advantage?



I just read this. It changes the edge from 3.48% to 2.86%. You give up about 18% of your edge.

Thing is, if you are just playing it as an idle time passing, thereís not much point other than a fun thing to do. The swing is from 3% one way to 3% the other. Not that I wouldnít take that, but I wouldnít play it 4 hours a day at $25/hand, even if that meant a theoretical $35/hr. I make more than that going to work, with no risk.
NO KILL I
prozema
prozema
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June 17th, 2019 at 9:20:04 PM permalink
Whether it is worth it or not is a completely different question and IMHO is a personal decision.

What I'm saying is that 40 correct reads with a 3% advantage is a profit of 1.2 bets.

You could be at a 100% disadvantage on 1 bet and you are still ok assuming you are flat betting.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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June 17th, 2019 at 9:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: prozema

Also, reading a k as a j puts you at a huge disadvantage but that misread goes the other way too.



Ok the other way around, not as costly if you read a J as a K youíre still going to be playing at a higher than 3% disadvantage on that hand you will be folding Qís and Kís youíd hold otherwise in basic no? I think youíre correct on the exaggeration of effect of misread, and I canít find where I got that from probably misremembering.

It is also possible to playing at greater than 100% disadvantage on a specific hand when the advantage/disadvantage is calculated based on ante, makes me think I am misremembering an example given of the most costly possible misread and blanket applying it.
Last edited by: mcallister3200 on Jun 17, 2019
prozema
prozema
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June 17th, 2019 at 9:44:28 PM permalink
Just to throw one other thought out there...

.2 bets an hour * a 25 bet is $5 an hour.
$5 an hour * 300 hours is $1500.
Stick that in a mutual fund making 7% a year for 30 years and you have $11,000.
"A little luck never hurt any fisherman, that's all I know." - Sig Hansen

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