Craps systems fail, but what have I missed?

Hi. I know that this is an old question, to be sure, but I'm just wondering what I missed.

For clarification, this is a strategy, not a system, for craps so there's no need to go there. As a dark side better your nemesis is the disadvantage that you face at the come out roll. If you bet both sides and then just lay odds after a point is established then the seven is our friend and you have the advantage of the seven on your side.

Now, I know that you can get creamed with a good roll, or 12's, but that's true of betting the dark side under any circumstances. So, by (mostly) circumventing the peril of the come out roll haven't I shifted the odds into my favor?

Again, this a strategy and not a system. Perfect circumstances will have the 12 be my downfall in the end but wouldn't this be an a superior strategy if not taken to a billion rolls?

Quote: Lovecomps

Perfect circumstances will have the 12 be my downfall in the end but wouldn't this be an a superior strategy if not taken to a billion rolls?

If you bet both sides and then just lay odds after a point is established then the seven is our friend and you have the advantage of the seven on your side.

No. if you acknowledge that you are at a disadvantage with a billion rolls then you must acknowledge that you are at a disadvantage with very few rolls. You didn't gain anything in terms of percentage by limiting your number of rolls except that if you bet much less because you're leaving early your dollar loss expectation will be less but it will still be negative.

Laying odds after a point is established does not give you the advantage because the seven is on your side.
If you are betting on numbers that are not the point your lay bet will be taxed and will pay less than what the true odds are.

If you are laying the point number (free odds) the payoff is exactly proportionate to the true odds. You didn't gain or lose anything but you increased your variance.

The only strategy that can be superior to any other strategy is making bets that have the lowest house edge: pass, don't pass, place the 6 and 8 and free odds. But they still don't give you a positive expectation.

The way to think of a free odds bet is this: your expected dollar loss is the same as if you didn't make the bet at all.

Your handle is "Lovecomps." I've heard that there are some casinos that will consider your free odds bets when awarding comps. Don't really know if it's true. If that is true then you're getting a good deal - depending on the value of the comps.

I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.


GOOD LUCK - have fun

No, because the loss you take with a 12 on the comeout roll more than makes up for any advantage you have if a point is made.

Note that the odds bets cancel each other out in terms of advantage.
If the point is 4 or 10, then the point is made 1/3 of the time, and, assuming you bet 30 odds on each side, you are up 30 (+60 on the pass odds, -30 on the don't), and it sevens out 2/3 of the time, where you are down 15 (-30 on the pass, +15 on the don't).
If the point is 5 or 9, then the point is made 2/5 of the time, where you are up 15 (+45 on the pass, -30 on the don't), and sevens out 3/5 of the time, where you are down 10 (-30 on the pass, +20 on the don't).
If the point is 6 or 8, then the point is made 5/11 of the time, where you are up 6 (+36 on the pass, -30 on the don't), and sevens out 6/11 of the time, where you are down 5 (-30 on the pass, +25 on the don't).

The fact that you are more likely to win a don't pass bet if a point is made is countered by the fact that 8 of the 36 possible point rolls result in a DP bet losing, while only 3 win, and one pushes.

Quote: lilredrooster

Your handle is "Lovecomps." I've heard that there are some casinos that will consider your free odds bets when awarding comps. Don't really know if it's true. If that is true then you're getting a good deal - depending on the value of the comps.

I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.


GOOD LUCK - have fun

They don't give comps on odds any more. I stay downtown because a) my play does get me good comps (suites, free cruises, RFB, cabanas, and free play whereas I'm a nobody uptown an b) more importantly,, the knee just can't handle the long walks to get from one strip to casino to the next. I stay at the GN, by the way, but can walk to other casinos in less than 1/2 an hour under the Vegas sun.

Also, for whatever reason, I've found that I like downtown more since they (mostly) cleaned it up several years ago and, for the moment, I've seen every show on the strip that I wanted to see. One can also play 3:2 without having to search for a $50 table.