Nimbus2k
Nimbus2k
Joined: Aug 22, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
May 13th, 2017 at 9:30:00 AM permalink
I was messing around with some online UTH calculators and Pokerstove and don't understand the discrepancy in this hand:

Qh6s

Board: 7d 4d As 2c 9h

Two different UTH calculators I ran this through have this as a call (EV of -1.91 vs folding EV of -2.00).

But Pokerstove runs this out:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.485% 23.03% 00.45% 228 4.50 { Qh6s }
Hand 1: 76.515% 76.06% 00.45% 753 4.50 { random }

when we win, we win 1 for our Play bet and get our Ante and Blind bets back-- 3 units * 23.03% of the time = 69.09
when we tie, we save our Ante and Blind bets-- 2 units * 0.45% = 0.90
when we lose, we lose the Play bet 76.06% * -1 = -76.06

The EV from Pokerstove for a 1x river bet seems to be 69.09 + 0.90 - 76.06 m= -6.07 so shouldn't this hand be a fold?

What am I missing here?
snorkleboy13
snorkleboy13
Joined: Nov 13, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 21
May 13th, 2017 at 10:32:28 AM permalink
I think it's not a fold as there are only 19 outs - 15 on the board plus the 4 kings. The number of outs is based on the simple view as prescribed in most UTH strategies.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
May 13th, 2017 at 10:36:09 AM permalink
Quote: Nimbus2k

I was messing around with some online UTH calculators and Pokerstove and don't understand the discrepancy in this hand:

Qh6s

Board: 7d 4d As 2c 9h

Two different UTH calculators I ran this through have this as a call (EV of -1.91 vs folding EV of -2.00).

But Pokerstove runs this out:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.485% 23.03% 00.45% 228 4.50 { Qh6s }
Hand 1: 76.515% 76.06% 00.45% 753 4.50 { random }

when we win, we win 1 for our Play bet and get our Ante and Blind bets back-- 3 units * 23.03% of the time = 69.09
when we tie, we save our Ante and Blind bets-- 2 units * 0.45% = 0.90
when we lose, we lose the Play bet 76.06% * -1 = -76.06

The EV from Pokerstove for a 1x river bet seems to be 69.09 + 0.90 - 76.06 m= -6.07 so shouldn't this hand be a fold?

What am I missing here?


Did you factor in that you could lose either 2 or 3 bets? In your example, you lose 2 If the dealer beats you but doesn't qualify. You lose 3 if the dealer qualifies.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Nimbus2k
Nimbus2k
Joined: Aug 22, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
May 13th, 2017 at 11:50:13 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces


Did you factor in that you could lose either 2 or 3 bets? In your example, you lose 2 If the dealer beats you but doesn't qualify. You lose 3 if the dealer qualifies.



Ah that's it, thank you. I see what's missing in the Pokerstove calcs-- Pokerstove doesn't differentiate losing to a dealer pair vs a high card: when we bet 1x and lose to A or K high or Q with better kicker, the Play and Ante bets are lost but the Blind is not lost-- it gets pushed back to us for a net loss of 0 units on the hand and not a -1.

  • Jump to: