tomchina123
tomchina123
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 305
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
February 9th, 2016 at 11:29:48 PM permalink
i did a lot of things on card counting, after learning the basics from Eliot. i will try to put them one by one.

1) the EOR: effect of removal is the standard to card counting, here i found a new way to do it:
like dragon 7, to check the cards to make it up, and find the average: then find the difference to the average:

here are the cards to make dragon 7 in about 1.5 million hands( not shoes)
cards quantity difference to average devided by 1155.83 ELIOT 'S EOR X 1000
card 1 14298 402.3846154 0.348134774 0.5
card 2 15717 -1016.615385 -0.879554419 -0.9
card 3 15986 -1285.615385 -1.112287607 -1.08
card 4 17688 -2987.615385 -2.584822495 -2.68
card 5 17778 -3077.615385 -2.662688617 -2.63
card 6 18364 -3663.615385 -3.169683591 -3.24
card 7 18604 -3903.615385 -3.377326583 -3.58
card 8 8482 6218.384615 5.380016625 5.38
card 9 9068 5632.384615 4.873021651 4.79
card 10 55120
0 devided by 4 13780 920.3846154 0.796297566 0.86
average cards: 14700.38462

as shown above, by this say, the ratio is very close to EOR.
may it is not good to find how powerful the EOR is, but the ratio is the same.

2) by above way, to do banker and player bet in baccarat, it is not working. guessed because of the strange rule: because 10+2 is not 12, it is 2 or so.

3) the EOR. as we know, EOR is to remove one card from the top. but the random world, the results are never evenly distributed. sometimes, we need to remove 2 cards or more from the left card, not from one-card-less deck(s). i also read one thread days before: who says, it is beyong human capacity. i agree with this. but we can do some tricks on it:
we can do 1-n cards removal and find the average. or we can do 1 card removal from top, from 1/4 cards left, 1/2 cards left... then find average,
4) the above explains why there are so many counting tags in blackjack: even we use the decimals, we cannot be sure, it works the best in this 1 million hands. no?
5) in baccarat, i did some tests on removing 1 cards-32 cards, by this online software:
http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/baccarat/odds-calculator.html
the result is strange:
for 0: at the beginning, the removal is good for the banker bet, more and more. at the removal of 65cards, it is the top, then less and less, at the reomoval of 113 cards, it is the least. and at 114, it hurts the banker bet.
for 1, as we know, removal favors banker bet, and the good of adding is going bigger and bigger.
here is removal from 1 card to 32 cards: eor: card 1:
0.000000
0.000044
0.000088
0.000133
0.000178
0.000223
0.000269
0.000315
0.000361
0.000407
0.000454
0.000501
0.000548
0.000596
0.000644
0.000692
0.000741
0.000790
0.000839
0.000889
0.000939
0.000989
0.001040
0.001091
0.001142
0.001193
0.001245
0.001297
0.001350
0.001403
0.001456
0.001510
0.001563

for 4, as we know, removal favors banker bet, and the good of adding is going smaller and smaller
here is removal from 1 card to 32 cards: eor: card 2:
0.000000
0.000116
0.000231
0.000345
0.000459
0.000572
0.000684
0.000795
0.000906
0.001016
0.001124
0.001232
0.001339
0.001444
0.001549
0.001652
0.001754
0.001855
0.001954
0.002052
0.002149
0.002244
0.002337
0.002429
0.002520
0.002608
0.002695
0.002780
0.002863
0.002945
0.003024
0.003101
0.003176

for other numbers, not now.

the comparison:
here is the EOR from Eliot's. (the same result is the shown from the online software):
card Data from Eliot *10000
1 0.00004404 0.440375
2 0.00005223 0.522348
3 0.00006492 0.649239
4 0.00011572 1.157192
5 -0.00008269 -0.826929
6 -0.00011324 -1.132424
7 -0.00008272 -0.827154
8 -0.00005015 -0.501538
9 -0.00002314 -0.231354
10 0.00001876 0.187559

if we do Eor by card removal of 1-32 and then devided by 32:
card EOR OF 1-32card /32 *10000
1 0.0000488531 0.48853125
2 0.0000618188 0.6181875
3 0.0000436500 0.4365
4 0.0000992500 0.9925
5 -0.0000612969 -0.61296875
6 -0.0001448125 -1.448125
7 -0.0001066094 -1.06609375
8 -0.0000503750 -0.50375
9 -0.0000292563 -0.2925625
10 0.0000160531 0.16053125

as the small tests i did, the below EOR works better.
i have had some more new ideas on this kind of thing, maybe in the future i will write them out.

6) the true count, if it is true 4. it means the quantity of running count is 1/13 of the quantity of the left cards. n/52*4. it should be old. the new is if we do unbanlanced count, if we simulate true 4, the unbalanced quantity should be 1.2 of 13 cards instead of 1, if baccata is 2.5 decks cut. if more-cut, not ready from me.

that is all. i learned so much from Eliot and this forum. i share above in return, there are mistakes in learning to err.
tomchina123
tomchina123
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 305
Joined: Aug 26, 2015
March 1st, 2016 at 7:38:19 AM permalink
days ago, i learned how to make baccarat data by EXCEL, here i want to share it.

reason to do it by excel:
1 c+++, JAVA is just like a new foreign language.
2 by excel, i can do many other things easily: like true 1,1.5....to true 20. kelly 0.1% to 10%. for kelly, i can do tests of half million hands in each 3 seconds, then i can figure out which is one is better.:house edge/variance*variance, house edge/paying ratio.
3: i don't intend to invest any count systems, but i want to check it before uing it. also if in the internet, there are only true count systems, i can test some unbalanced count, i like unbalanced count more beause of the easiness. (i have got many from Wizard, Eliot, Don, but not enough...)

here is how for bac, 8 decs.

1) firstly to make 418 random number.
=RAND() 416 lines.
i am using line2 till line 417
2) rank them.
=RANK(A2,$A$2:$A$417)
3) put 1-129 as 0, 129-160 as 1...
=IF(B2<129,0,IF(AND(B2>128,B2<161),1,IF(AND(B2>160,B2<193),2,IF(AND(B2>192,B2<225),3,IF(AND(B2>224,B2<257),4,IF(AND(B2>256,B2<289),5,IF(AND(B2>288,B2<321),6,IF(AND(B2>320,B2<353),7,IF(AND(B2>352,B2<385),8,IF(AND(B2>384,B2<417),9))))))))))
3) P1P2P3 using 3 cards, also b1 b2 b3, 3 cards, so at most, i can make 69 hands(Macao is almost like this). 69*6=414 hands. later using formula to decide if 3rd card(s) of banker and player is needed. here guessed hard to read the formula because of the columns.
just to show it can be done.
here is for card 3 of player
=IF(OR(M2=8,M2=9,G2=8,G2=9),G2,IF(OR(G2=6,G2=7),G2,IF(G2<6,G2+F2)))
here is for card 3 of banker:
=IF(OR(G2=8,G2=9,M2=8,M2=9),M2,IF(M2=7,M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2=7),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2=6),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=1),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=2),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=3),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=4),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=5),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=8),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=9),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=0),M2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=6,G2<6,F2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=1),M2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=2),M2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=3),M2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=8),M2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=9),M2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=0),M2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=4),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=5),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=5,G2<6,F2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=1),M2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=8),M2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=9),M2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=0),M2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=2),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=3),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=4),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=5),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=4,G2<6,F2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=8),M2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=1),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=2),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=3),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=4),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=5),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=6),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=7),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=9),M2+L2,IF(AND(M2=3,G2<6,F2=0),M2+L2,IF(M2<3,M2+L2)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

4) after above 3 steps,
we should have data like this:
NEW B P B1 B2 B3 P1 P2 P3
B 4 3 0 4 1 2 0 1
P 3 7 8 3 2 7 0 0
B 8 0 3 5 0 0 0 0
B 8 0 4 4 0 6 4 1
P 5 7 3 2 2 5 0 2
P 4 9 0 4 2 0 0 9
P 4 7 1 3 0 9 3 5
P 1 6 5 7 9 3 3 6
B 5 2 9 6 5 1 0 1
T 0 0 4 8 8 2 0 8
P 2 3 5 5 2 3 0 0
P 4 9 7 7 0 6 3 0
B 9 6 1 8 0 6 0 0
P 1 6 9 3 9 1 4 1
P 0 4 0 5 5 0 0 4
P 4 8 5 9 1 0 8 9
B 7 3 0 7 4 0 0 3
B 6 4 0 1 5 1 9 4
B 8 6 1 9 8 6 0 8
B 7 4 0 7 0 3 0 1
P 3 7 7 6 0 0 7 5
B 9 5 5 0 4 0 0 5
B 9 7 0 9 0 7 0 8
B 8 0 4 4 1 6 4 3
B 6 1 6 0 2 6 4 1
P 5 7 0 0 5 8 9 6
P 2 8 2 0 8 9 9 0
we should make some B3 and P3 into X.
here is for P3:
=IF(A2="NEW","",IF(OR(J2=8,J2=9),"x",IF(OR(K2=9,K2=8,K2=7,K2=6),"x",IF(K2<6,I2))))
Here is B3:
=IF(A2="NEW","",IF(OR(K2=8,K2=9,J2=8,J2=9),"X",IF(J2=7,"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2=7),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2=6),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=1),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=2),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=3),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=4),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=5),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=8),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=9),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=0),"X",IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=6,K2<6,I2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=5,K2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=5,K2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=1),"X",IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=2),"X",IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=3),"X",IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=8),"X",IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=9),"X",IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=0),"X",IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=4),F2,IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=5),F2,IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=5,K2<6,I2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=1),"X",IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=8),"X",IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=9),"X",IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=0),"X",IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=2),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=3),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=4),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=5),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=4,K2<6,I2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=8),"X",IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=1),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=2),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=3),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=4),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=5),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=6),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=7),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=9),F2,IF(AND(J2=3,K2<6,I2=0),F2,IF(J2<3,F2))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

5)eventually, we have this:

NEW B P B1 B2 B3 P1 P2 P3
B 5 0 0 5 X 9 2 9
P 2 5 2 0 0 3 2 0
P 0 9 4 6 X 3 6 x
B 9 1 8 1 X 1 0 x
P 3 9 6 7 X 8 1 x
B 9 8 4 5 X 4 4 x
P 7 8 9 8 X 5 7 6
P 4 7 4 0 0 7 0 x
B 6 0 6 0 X 0 0 0
B 6 4 0 6 X 4 7 3
B 4 2 8 6 X 0 2 0
B 8 0 0 8 X 0 0 x
B 8 6 8 3 7 6 0 x
P 8 9 8 0 X 7 2 x
B 9 5 0 9 X 4 1 x
P 0 8 3 7 0 0 1 7
B 4 1 0 4 X 0 1 0
B 7 0 3 4 X 9 2 9
P 7 8 2 5 X 3 0 5
P 7 8 6 1 X 0 8 x
B 9 3 6 4 9 0 0 3
P 4 5 0 4 X 0 5 0
B 9 1 6 3 X 1 0 x
B 6 4 6 0 X 8 7 9
B 7 5 5 2 X 7 4 4
P 1 6 0 0 1 7 9 x

now it is finished.

we can do 100 groups, then each click is 100 shoes. then to make 1000 shoes is like 30 seconds.

as for if the data is right,
1)i shall check it by house edge of banker bet and player bet.
2) how many cards are used for each hand, it should be about 4.94 cards.
3) also dragon 7. about 1 in 44 hands.

by my present tests, the excel random numbers are rolling ok.

at last, if anyone wants the file, i can email him.
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