George
George
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
Joined: Jan 20, 2016
January 20th, 2016 at 4:34:37 AM permalink
From 10 000 spins what are the chances to find string of 100 numbers with 65 loses and 35 or less wins?
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
January 20th, 2016 at 4:45:14 AM permalink
65 or more losses and 35 or less wins? Any number or a specific number? If any number, I'd say 100%, as this will always be the case (since not every number can win 35+ times and lose 65 or fewer times).


I believe.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 117
  • Posts: 6273
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
January 20th, 2016 at 8:10:29 AM permalink
Assuming you are talking about even-money bets on a double-zero wheel, I simulated 500,000 runs of 10,000 spins, and the probability of at least one run of 100 that included at least 65 losses is about 114/115 (i.e. the probability of every run of 100 having at least 36 wins is 1/115).

Now, before you use this information to develop the world's first ever virtually guaranteed roulette system, answer this: how are you going to tell in advance just when that run of 100 begins? Don't forget to take into account that every run of 100 overlaps anywhere from 99 to 198 other runs of 100 (for example, spins 100-199 overlap the runs of 100 starting with every spin from spin 1 to spin 199).
George
George
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
Joined: Jan 20, 2016
January 20th, 2016 at 11:51:28 AM permalink
You already guessed it's even bet on double-zero wheel. :) Can you explain me how to calculate this with different number of wins and loses, or if there is any simulator that doesn't count the overlaped strings (ex. you find the first string of 65 loses in 100 numbers and continue counting from zero).
Thank you.
  • Jump to: