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Mission146
Mission146
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acesideodiousgambit
July 8th, 2021 at 8:39:08 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Thanks for coming across those

Notice though that for counting the dealer outs it doesn't change. So this comes down to "do I list the exceptions or not" ... maybe an asterisk ?



It does change sometimes. The Rule 4 exception only looks like 19 outs. It's an unusual exception that relies on multiple things at once going on to be in play. If a player were going to pick one thing and just do it, then the best play would be to call, in the grand scheme of things.

Quote:

66449 would not be rule 6 [first table] because there are 7 outs as board, not 4. It would be rule 5, in which the J is required to allow 3 more outs only = 19 [while 20 are allowed]

Thanks, it is easy to get lost in the wilderness here



You're welcome! It's a simple game with a complicated optimal strategy. I would be borderline shocked if anyone plays absolutely optimal, but maybe they do if they have some recurring online casino promotion that relies on getting points.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 8th, 2021 at 12:07:16 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It does change sometimes. The Rule 4 exception only looks like 19 outs.



Player: Q2

Board: 34677

Your example here does include the 4 card possibility of dealer 5. I missed your point, counting single cards for an inside straight. So maybe I should state how many outs really apply each time.

Submitted for your approval, complete with added commentary in bold.

>>>

All situations below are for the 1X bet with only a kicker. As the LVA strategy card says, first you determine if you can outkick the board using a hole card, or whether you should determine if the board should be bet on its own, often a matter of the outs as well. The card indicates that in the former case, which I will call a hole card kicker situation, 21+ outs indicate to fold, while in the other case usually 18+ outs indicate folding. I'll call it the Can't Outkick Situation. no 2+ card combinations are counted as dealer outs. There are exceptions to the 18/21 out rule, these are not noted. 


You Can Outkick


Hole Card Kicker Situation 1 . Your kicker should not go up against a 4 card flush or open-ended straight on the board, fold instead of using kicker. 


Hole Card Kicker Situation 2. Unpaired Rainbow Board representing 15 outs. K is good, succession* rule is good.  


Hole Card Kicker Situation 3. Board has One Pair representing 11 outs. Q is good, succession rule is good. 


Hole Card Kicker Situation 4. Board has Trips representing 7 outs. J is good, succession rule is good, and we see a pattern here. 


Hole Card Kicker Situation 5. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs. J is good, succession rule is good. Same as previous due to number of outs. 


Hole Card Kicker Situation 6. Board has Two Pair representing only 4 outs!! This is when the unpaired board card is lower than either pair, thus useless when paired. 10 is good, succession is good. 


Hole Card Kicker Situation 7. Board has 4 OAK, note 21+ outs is not viable strategy  7-card is good, succession is good. Memorize this, don't counts outs. 


Can't Outkick


The following is for when you decide your kicker can't outkick the board. The situation is more complicated because a single card can't trump all other outs in some cases. 


Situation 1. If the board doesn't have a pair or better, "don't play the board" per LVA strategy card, it's the 21+ out situation only. 


All the other situations below use the 18+ rule. 


Can't Outkick Situation 2. One pair, 11 outs, and there are 3 cards that represent kicker situations. These 3 need to be Ace through Jack, any combination, otherwise there are 2 cards that the dealer could have that will add 8 more outs = 19. If the pair consists of AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, succession to A through 10, any combination, is good. 


Can't Outkick Situation 3. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs. Q is good, succession is good. 


Can't Outkick Situation 4. Board has Trips representing 7 outs, with two cards that represent kicker situations. These two need to be Ace through J, any combo again, to keep the dealer from having 3 more possible outs. If the Trips consist of AAA, KKK, QQQ, or JJJ, succession to A through 10, any combination, is good. 


Can't Outkick Situation 5. Board has Two Pair representing 4 outs! The one other card is lower again than the pairs. This time the 2 pair need to contain a pair of Jacks or higher, otherwise dealer can have Ace through Jack and 16 more outs. Look for this situation and this time I finally agree to just count the outs! If 18+, fold. 


Can't Outkick Situation 6. Board has 4 OAK. 10-card is good, succession is good. This fits with 18+ and I can't explain why this differs from the other 4 OAK situation. 


If nobody finds any errors I'll make a table. 




* Succession rule definition: memorizing a certain card in a certain situation will be modified by the presence of higher ranking cards on the board. When one out-ranker is present, the succession rule maintains that the next lower kicker is 'good'. For example in hole-card kicker situation 2, I indicate a King is 'good' . If an Ace is present on the board that will mean a Queen is good as well. If Ace and King are present, the succession rule says now a Jack is good, etc.

             
       

       

       

                     
You Can Outkick BoardAction Indicated
1 . Board = 4 card flush or open-ended straight Fold the kicker 
2. Unpaired Rainbow Board, 11 outs K is good, succession good.
3. Board has One Pair, 7 outs Q is good, succession rule good.
4. Board has Trips, 7 outs J is good, succession good
5. Board = Two Pair, 7 outs type.  J is good, succession good
6. Board has Two Pair, 4 outs!!   10 is good, succession is good.
7. Board has 4 OAK   7-card is good, succession is good
>>>


       

       

       

       

       

               
Board Kicker Outkicks Action Indicated
1. If the board doesn't have a pair or better    "don't play the board" 
2. Board Has One Pair, 7 outs Combination of 3: A thru Jack, any comb, succession to A-10, any comb
3. Board has Two Pair representing 7 outs Q is good, succession is good
4. Board has Trips and 7 outs Combination of 2: A thru J, any comb, succession to A-10, any comb
5. Board has Two Pair representing 4 outs!  Need one pair JJ+, count the outs! If 18+, fold.
6. Board has 4 OAK  10-card is good, succession is good.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146aceside
July 12th, 2021 at 9:40:27 AM permalink
Basic strategy video for UTH



Fairly entertaining, and uses the Wizard strategy with a shoutout. I think I have my criticism right but don't feel like double-checking it


Criticism: 

Evidently not comfortable with the 21 outs and just wings it? And whether you outkick the board or not is totally missing in the whole video

at 10 minutes, player decides correctly to play his kicker at 1x, but does not explain why he should

at 11:25 player decides incorrectly to play his kicker at 1x, no explanation

at 12:55 perhaps it's an obvious fold, if it was me going to the trouble of making a video, I'd explain. 

at 14:15 another chance is missed

at 17:18 another chance is missed
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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July 12th, 2021 at 10:45:18 AM permalink
Criticism: Playing the side bet.

3:57---Never tell the dealer you lost. They miss those sometimes. I think it's more likely the eye in the sky will let you know if there was a mispay (that benefits the casino) than they are to let you know you should have been paid and weren't.

4:34---I'm not sure that this is a raise. Q10 off has the kicker within two ranks of the normal calling point, Q8 off and there's a queen in the player's other hole cards. Additionally, the player's other hole card (in the first hand) is a three, which is a card that you would want the dealer to be able to have. I wish I could open 888 casino site because Teliot probably has this. I know DiscountGambling (StephenHow) was the site where I first learned the two rank rule with neighbor's cards...I just don't know if it always applies.*

*Mathematically, I'm going to guess (98% confident) that this is a raise with two players and only these known cards. I know Q8 and Q9 are definitely not raises anymore with a Queen in the other hand, so I'd like for him to have mentioned that.

8:15---No straights, no flushes, nineteen outs...terrible fold.

9:00---He can't use his phone at the table like that.

11:00---J9 is definitely a preflop raise with AK being the known cards in the other hand. J10o would be a raise anyway, the other hand not only doesn't take any outs away from the player, but also has two cards that the dealer could have and beat the player.

Probably also the other ones you said. I'm bored with this video now. lol
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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Mission146
July 12th, 2021 at 12:02:00 PM permalink
How did I miss the one at 8:15? Definitely just playing by gut on the kickers. As far as playing 2 spots and using the information, good points. He might have avoided the criticism by saying he would stick to basic strategy only, as a teaching instrument [even though he makes a bad teacher as we can see]

Contest! A Hearty Hi-Yo Silver to the first person to tell me how he could have won $5 instead of losing $5 by "listening to the Wizard" on one thing in particular. There may be more than one answer, but you only get the Hearty Hi-Yo if you pick what I'm looking for. Another way to get a Hearty Hi-Yo is if you can point out I made a mistake by saying this, because I don't feel like double-checking
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
aceside
aceside
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Mission146
July 12th, 2021 at 2:05:54 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Basic strategy video for UTH



And whether you outkick the board or not is totally missing in the whole video


This video clip is entertaining but you criticism is even more accurate. Can you explain a little more about your advanced strategy of “you out kick the board or not”? I have been following this part of strategy but haven’t be able to fully grasp it. Thank you in advance.
odiousgambit
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Mission146aceside
July 12th, 2021 at 3:15:19 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

This video clip is entertaining but you criticism is even more accurate.  Can you explain a little more about your advanced strategy of “you out kick the board or not”? I have been following this part of strategy but haven’t be able to fully grasp it.  Thank you in advance.

 


When you particularly need to be paying attention to this is when you have a hand you might fold because it is lousy. Don't fail to notice, though, that the board represents your hand at that point. But also the dealer's hand, possibly, which would be a push. This is what you are betting on and it can be marginal or a gimme that can't lose. I'll try to give some examples, out of time.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
Mission146
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aceside
July 12th, 2021 at 3:38:17 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

 


When you particularly need to be paying attention to this is when you have a hand you might fold because it is lousy. Don't fail to notice, though, that the board represents your hand at that point. But also the dealer's hand, possibly, which would be a push. This is what you are betting on and it can be marginal or a gimme that can't lose. I'll try to give some examples, out of time.



Board: AAAAK (or any other quads with an Ace) can only push.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
aceside
aceside
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Mission146
July 12th, 2021 at 6:14:48 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Board: AAAAK (or any other quads with an Ace) can only push.


I finally understood what you mean by outkick. This is a very good example. However, in this particular example of AAAAK on board, if the player has a hand of 2,3, there is zero out for this hand, so the “21 outs” rule is enough and the outkick rule is not needed. What do you say?
Mission146
Mission146
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July 12th, 2021 at 6:39:20 PM permalink
Quote: aceside

I finally understood what you mean by outkick. This is a very good example. However, in this particular example of AAAAK on board, if the player has a hand of 2,3, there is zero out for this hand, so the “21 outs” rule is enough and the outkick rule is not needed. What do you say?



I agree. I just went with the first hand that sounded like it would apply.

Board: 2222A

Player: 34

Decision: Call. It’s impossible not to push.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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