Downtown Vegas Plaza Craps Firebet
I made the below table showing the house edge.
The Wizards' site does not show this pay table. I hope I did the math right.
and I did play the fire bet only since many shooters were hitting 3 points, but never the 4th.
| Number | Probability | Payoff | Product |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.593939394 | -1 | -0.593939394 |
| 1 | 0.260750492 | -1 | -0.260750492 |
| 2 | 0.101275356 | -1 | -0.101275356 |
| 3 | 0.033434212 | 6 | 0.200605273 |
| 4 | 0.008798178 | 29 | 0.255147175 |
| 5 | 0.001639933 | 149 | 0.244350038 |
| 6 | 0.000162435 | 299 | 0.04856799 |
| Totals- | 1 | --- | -0.207294766 |
(Note:table was corrected August 4, 2010. rest of thread will show the corrections also)
The payoffs in the above table are "to 1" and are 7 for 1, 29 for 1, 150 for 1 and 300 for 1 on the craps table.
Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.
Quote: WizardI get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? My are by random simulation.
Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.
From the book "The Doctrine of Chances:Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling" by Stewart Ethier from the University of Utah. Too advanced for me. Google books also has a preview.
It is also posted by Donald Catlin HERE
http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/articles/57750.html
Wizard, thank you for a great site. It is thrilling for me to duplicate a formula that you have on your site in Excel and understand the math behind it. Keep up the good work.
Quote: 7winner
From the book "The Doctrine of Chances:Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling" by Stewart Ethier from the University of Utah. Too advanced .
Thanks for the heads up 7winner, I never heard of this book before, its new and looks interesting. Of course, its springer-verlag so its expensive.
Quote: DrEntropyThanks for the heads up 7winner, I never heard of this book before, its new and looks interesting. Of course, its springer-verlag so its expensive.
here, for those interested, is the google book preview link HERE page 511
also
http://www.math.utah.edu/~ethier/sample.pdf
sample chapter about the math of Video Poker
download here.
It contains NO macros and no author info.
I think I got this from the fire bet website, but I can not see it there any more.
It is designed so a casino can see how much they can make from the fire bet. And shows how often to expect 4, 5 and 6 points to be hit.
enjoy
Quote: WizardI get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? Mine are by random simulation.
Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.
I started a thread here titled Fire bet: Calculating the odds in February although I never said how I did it.
I could not do the math myself. Looks too complicated, even in the book it looks complicated.
I only started this thread since The Plaza is the only casino I know of that pays when you hit 3 fire bets or more.
Just goes to show that the math does not lie.
enjoy!
Quote: DJTeddyBearThere's no mention of this optional pay table on the official FireBet website: www.hopbet.com
You are right. I went there and also checked it out and did not see a 3 point pay table.
The Dealers at the Plaza said the have had the fire bet for about 6 months and their players love it.
Quote: DJTeddyBearThere's no mention of this optional pay table on the official FireBet website: www.hopbet.com
But there is in their patent
The fire bet seems to be dying in Vegas. No downtown casinos, except the Plaza, have it, even though Golden Nugget, 4 Queens used to have it. And on the strip, I hardly see it bet on at the Harrahs' props that do have it.
Quote: konceptumThe Plaza was the first, and only, time I've made a Fire Bet. The pit boss explained to me that since they pay out on 3 points instead of waiting till 4 points, they make more payouts. Of course, their payouts are lower than the Fire Bets that only pay out at 4 points. Unfortunately, the pit boss did a rather poor job of explaining to me what how exactly the Fire Bets were won, and I was disappointed by that when I figured it out on my own.
I hear you.
Golden Nugget and Binions have the most experienced and helpful dealers and boxmen in my opinion.
Still fun to get paid on 3 fire bet points! 7 for 1 is better than nothing.
Quote: 7winnergreat detective work. guess they did plan ahead.
The fire bet seems to be dying in Vegas. No downtown casinos, except the Plaza, have it, even though Golden Nugget, 4 Queens used to have it. And on the strip, I hardly see it bet on at the Harrahs' props that do have it.
Other places ARE picking it up though. We at the Fiesta Henderson did so, with the 7-30-150 etc version.
I think it is a GREAT bonus-type bet to add to craps: something to strive for, and to celebreate when it hits! However, when a crap table dumps - it REALLY dumps, since the fire bet pays out big when the table is already hemmoraging.
And..about seeing many variations of a bonus table - quite common now - many houses "tweak" the bonus tables.
On my game (EZpg), the Barona banged up the payouts and reduced the house edge - over my objections, saying, "Hey! - We'll cover it if it dumps! It's like paying for advertising anyway!"
For some casinos in different gaming jurisdictions, they can do that within limits.
Quote: WizardI was just at the Plaza yesterday. According to my notes, they pay 30 for four points, not 25.
Thank You for the correction. my 4 looks like a 9 when written, should have doubled checked.
The dealers at the Plaza also mentioned that they offer only 10x odds (which is still way better than most) instead of 20x as listed in the Plaza hotel review.
