July 5th, 2010 at 8:55:27 AM
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The Plaza downtown offers a firebet craps table that pays with 3 to 6 point wins.

I made the below table showing the house edge.

The Wizards' site does not show this pay table. I hope I did the math right.

and I did play the fire bet only since many shooters were hitting 3 points, but never the 4th.

(Note:table was corrected August 4, 2010. rest of thread will show the corrections also)

The payoffs in the above table are "to 1" and are 7 for 1, 29 for 1, 150 for 1 and 300 for 1 on the craps table.

I made the below table showing the house edge.

The Wizards' site does not show this pay table. I hope I did the math right.

and I did play the fire bet only since many shooters were hitting 3 points, but never the 4th.

Number | Probability | Payoff | Product |
---|---|---|---|

0 | 0.593939394 | -1 | -0.593939394 |

1 | 0.260750492 | -1 | -0.260750492 |

2 | 0.101275356 | -1 | -0.101275356 |

3 | 0.033434212 | 6 | 0.200605273 |

4 | 0.008798178 | 29 | 0.255147175 |

5 | 0.001639933 | 149 | 0.244350038 |

6 | 0.000162435 | 299 | 0.04856799 |

Totals- | 1 | --- | -0.207294766 |

(Note:table was corrected August 4, 2010. rest of thread will show the corrections also)

The payoffs in the above table are "to 1" and are 7 for 1, 29 for 1, 150 for 1 and 300 for 1 on the craps table.

7 winner chicken dinner!

July 5th, 2010 at 10:04:55 AM
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I get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? Mine are by random simulation.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

July 5th, 2010 at 10:22:13 AM
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Quote:WizardI get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? My are by random simulation.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.

From the book "The Doctrine of Chances:Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling" by Stewart Ethier from the University of Utah. Too advanced for me. Google books also has a preview.

It is also posted by Donald Catlin HERE

http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/articles/57750.html

Wizard, thank you for a great site. It is thrilling for me to duplicate a formula that you have on your site in Excel and understand the math behind it. Keep up the good work.

7 winner chicken dinner!

July 5th, 2010 at 10:43:44 AM
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e43136

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

July 5th, 2010 at 10:49:01 AM
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Quote:7winner

From the book "The Doctrine of Chances:Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling" by Stewart Ethier from the University of Utah. Too advanced .

Thanks for the heads up 7winner, I never heard of this book before, its new and looks interesting. Of course, its springer-verlag so its expensive.

"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).

July 5th, 2010 at 10:59:31 AM
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Quote:DrEntropyThanks for the heads up 7winner, I never heard of this book before, its new and looks interesting. Of course, its springer-verlag so its expensive.

here, for those interested, is the google book preview link HERE page 511

also

http://www.math.utah.edu/~ethier/sample.pdf

sample chapter about the math of Video Poker

7 winner chicken dinner!

July 5th, 2010 at 1:08:12 PM
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fire bet Excel expected win/hit frequency worksheet.

download here.

It contains NO macros and no author info.

I think I got this from the fire bet website, but I can not see it there any more.

It is designed so a casino can see how much they can make from the fire bet. And shows how often to expect 4, 5 and 6 points to be hit.

enjoy

download here.

It contains NO macros and no author info.

I think I got this from the fire bet website, but I can not see it there any more.

It is designed so a casino can see how much they can make from the fire bet. And shows how often to expect 4, 5 and 6 points to be hit.

enjoy

7 winner chicken dinner!

July 5th, 2010 at 4:12:31 PM
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Quote:WizardI get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? Mine are by random simulation.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.

I started a thread here titled Fire bet: Calculating the odds in February although I never said how I did it.

“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous

July 5th, 2010 at 4:21:09 PM
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Excellent. so the numbers match.

I could not do the math myself. Looks too complicated, even in the book it looks complicated.

I only started this thread since The Plaza is the only casino I know of that pays when you hit 3 fire bets or more.

Just goes to show that the math does not lie.

enjoy!

I could not do the math myself. Looks too complicated, even in the book it looks complicated.

I only started this thread since The Plaza is the only casino I know of that pays when you hit 3 fire bets or more.

Just goes to show that the math does not lie.

enjoy!

7 winner chicken dinner!

July 5th, 2010 at 4:28:14 PM
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There's no mention of this optional pay table on the official FireBet website: www.hopbet.com

Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗