7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
July 5th, 2010 at 8:55:27 AM permalink
The Plaza downtown offers a firebet craps table that pays with 3 to 6 point wins.
I made the below table showing the house edge.
The Wizards' site does not show this pay table. I hope I did the math right.
and I did play the fire bet only since many shooters were hitting 3 points, but never the 4th.

NumberProbabilityPayoffProduct
00.593939394-1-0.593939394
10.260750492-1-0.260750492
20.101275356-1-0.101275356
30.03343421260.200605273
40.008798178290.255147175
50.0016399331490.244350038
60.0001624352990.04856799
Totals-1----0.207294766

(Note:table was corrected August 4, 2010. rest of thread will show the corrections also)

The payoffs in the above table are "to 1" and are 7 for 1, 29 for 1, 150 for 1 and 300 for 1 on the craps table.
7 winner chicken dinner!
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 20970
July 5th, 2010 at 10:04:55 AM permalink
I get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? Mine are by random simulation.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
July 5th, 2010 at 10:22:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? My are by random simulation.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.

From the book "The Doctrine of Chances:Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling" by Stewart Ethier from the University of Utah. Too advanced for me. Google books also has a preview.
It is also posted by Donald Catlin HERE
http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/articles/57750.html

Wizard, thank you for a great site. It is thrilling for me to duplicate a formula that you have on your site in Excel and understand the math behind it. Keep up the good work.
7 winner chicken dinner!
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
• Posts: 1975
July 5th, 2010 at 10:43:44 AM permalink
e43136
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
• Posts: 199
July 5th, 2010 at 10:49:01 AM permalink
Quote: 7winner

From the book "The Doctrine of Chances:Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling" by Stewart Ethier from the University of Utah. Too advanced .

Thanks for the heads up 7winner, I never heard of this book before, its new and looks interesting. Of course, its springer-verlag so its expensive.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
July 5th, 2010 at 10:59:31 AM permalink
Quote: DrEntropy

Thanks for the heads up 7winner, I never heard of this book before, its new and looks interesting. Of course, its springer-verlag so its expensive.

here, for those interested, is the google book preview link HERE page 511

also
http://www.math.utah.edu/~ethier/sample.pdf
sample chapter about the math of Video Poker
7 winner chicken dinner!
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
July 5th, 2010 at 1:08:12 PM permalink
fire bet Excel expected win/hit frequency worksheet.

It contains NO macros and no author info.
I think I got this from the fire bet website, but I can not see it there any more.

It is designed so a casino can see how much they can make from the fire bet. And shows how often to expect 4, 5 and 6 points to be hit.

enjoy
7 winner chicken dinner!
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
• Posts: 1930
July 5th, 2010 at 4:12:31 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I get a house edge of 25.29%. Our probabilities are a little off. Where did you get yours? Mine are by random simulation.

Thanks for the information. I just added this as pay table C under my craps side bets page.

I started a thread here titled Fire bet: Calculating the odds in February although I never said how I did it.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
July 5th, 2010 at 4:21:09 PM permalink
Excellent. so the numbers match.
I could not do the math myself. Looks too complicated, even in the book it looks complicated.

I only started this thread since The Plaza is the only casino I know of that pays when you hit 3 fire bets or more.
Just goes to show that the math does not lie.
enjoy!
7 winner chicken dinner!
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009