Don't Pass Killed Me Last Night!
July 1st, 2010 at 9:13:56 AM
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So lately I've been playing the Don't Pass instead of the Pass, and I've won the last 2 times. Last night, though, was a complete massacre!! I walked up to a full table (that should have been my first clue), and just went into betting the Don't. I was the only person betting the don't, and I kid you not....the shooter hit his first 4 points after I walked up! On top of that, I lost on the come out roll 5 times in a row (four 7's and one 11)! I only won on the Don't Pass two times the whole night (during 1.5 hours of play). Should I have switched to "going" with the table, or is that just a myth?
July 1st, 2010 at 9:37:53 AM
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Looking back... yes. You should have switched. Ofcourse, looking back a great many things are more clear than they are when looking forward. A full table, lots of chips, lots of place bet action, ... the whole idea is to follow trends even though that next roll can be a reversal.
Once, the whole crew was saying "down behind" to me and even the dealer at the other end of the table was echoing it ... until I got the idea and switched to the Pass Line. I had been tipping so I think they came as close as they could to giving me hints in a real sweat the money environment.
Remember, a slavish addiction to the Dont's is just as unwise as a slavish addiction to the Do's. The absolute worst of course is to be whipsawed by being too quick to change horses in midstream.
Once, the whole crew was saying "down behind" to me and even the dealer at the other end of the table was echoing it ... until I got the idea and switched to the Pass Line. I had been tipping so I think they came as close as they could to giving me hints in a real sweat the money environment.
Remember, a slavish addiction to the Dont's is just as unwise as a slavish addiction to the Do's. The absolute worst of course is to be whipsawed by being too quick to change horses in midstream.
July 1st, 2010 at 9:48:06 AM
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I play the Don't Come, then I am sort of on a parallel universe, at least to a degree. If the shooter knocks my point down , and is still rolling, I can jump off and get on his groove. Of course none of this really matters, it can't be proven that one way is right or wrong or that there is a clear reason to stay or switch. The only thing I have faith in is the dice's ability to mess with my head if that's what they want to do.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 1st, 2010 at 10:07:24 AM
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From a statistics point of view it makes no difference if you switch back and forth between every point...i don't like to play the don't because I like playing the longer ends of the odds that betting the right side gets you. I've never enjoyed having to bet more than I would win on anything...dice, sports, horses, etc....
July 1st, 2010 at 10:26:48 AM
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Quote: ruascottFrom a statistics point of view it makes no difference if you switch back and forth between every point...
True. But from a statistics point of view, you expect the distribution of rolls to be uneven. Therefore there will be times when most established points seven out quickly, and times when the seven simply doesn't roll while deciding a point.
The thing to do is not to dwell on hidsight. More important to remember that hidsight isn't foresight.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 1st, 2010 at 10:26:59 AM
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Unfortunately or not, this is the pattern you get drawn into while playing the don't pass. You win a lot of sessions, then have one absolutely terrible session that drags you back to even. I would recommend continuing to play the don'ts. There's no guarantee that your next session will be a winner (in fact you might have another massacre), but it's likely you'll come out ahead.
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For what it's worth, I like playing the don'ts at a full table. Nothing like seeing a bunch of people getting pissed off while you keep on winning. Unfortunately the table usually clears out and you're left by yourself. :P
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For what it's worth, I like playing the don'ts at a full table. Nothing like seeing a bunch of people getting pissed off while you keep on winning. Unfortunately the table usually clears out and you're left by yourself. :P
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 1st, 2010 at 2:08:49 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffRemember, a slavish addiction to the Dont's is just as unwise as a slavish addiction to the Do's. The absolute worst of course is to be whipsawed by being too quick to change horses in midstream.
Let's see now - staying on the don'ts or pass/come is not wise, but neither is switching too fast, which is even worse. So, what do you think the player SHOULD do? Switch, but not too soon? In fact, there is absolutely no logical reason for any of those options, since every roll, every decision is an independent, random event. The fact that the table was crowded is also irrelevant, unless you actually believe in "controlled" shooters.
You can never know what the next result or series of results will be, so don't worry about it.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
July 1st, 2010 at 2:11:21 PM
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Quote: NareedTrue. But from a statistics point of view, you expect the distribution of rolls to be uneven. Therefore there will be times when most established points seven out quickly, and times when the seven simply doesn't roll while deciding a point.
From a probability point of view, you don't expect anything on the next roll or decision; all you do know is what the probabilities are.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Cheers,
Alan Shank
"How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
July 1st, 2010 at 4:10:07 PM
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Much as my gut at the table would be telling me "you should switch", I don't think it's wrong to NOT switch, unless you're somehow convinced you have either shooters successfully controlling the dice, or bad dice.
It's just variation, the streak could just as easily turn on the next roll. You never know when a long streak is gonna start or end, that's why I think discipline is more important. Even if I suffer a beat down, I'm less pissed if I stuck to my discipline than if I changed around a bunch of times or started throwing out carny bets or big bets just to try to get even.
It's just variation, the streak could just as easily turn on the next roll. You never know when a long streak is gonna start or end, that's why I think discipline is more important. Even if I suffer a beat down, I'm less pissed if I stuck to my discipline than if I changed around a bunch of times or started throwing out carny bets or big bets just to try to get even.
July 1st, 2010 at 6:26:40 PM
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MYTH!!! If we knew where the table was "going" we would all be billionaires! I play the don't often and find it is much more common to have a string of seven outs than a string of points but what you experienced last night is not that uncommon. I find that stop limits and varying my odds lay helps to prevent total disaster at a very hot table but no matter what your strategy the dice will sometimes find the EXACT sequence of rolls to knock you on your ass.
July 1st, 2010 at 7:21:53 PM
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If you find great joy in betting against a full table and winning, continue doing that. I'd also recommend sticking with one side and making that a rule... in my experience if I switch and make the wrong decision it hurts more than being hardheaded. Do whatever makes you feel best... you're there for a good time not to win money.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
July 1st, 2010 at 7:47:43 PM
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MYTH!! We don't know the future. I'm sure that many of us who are OK betting either side have done this: start on one side and lose 4 in a row. Switch and lose 4 in a row. One time three shooters in a row had 7'd out quickly and the dice were coming to me. I decided - if my roll sucks too I'll switch to the don't. It did. I switched and the sure enough, the next shooter went on a tear. I left the table and she was still rolling. Another time I had been on the don'ts for a while and was well ahead. My roll came and I shot (I'll do that from time time, usually when I'm ahead or there are only two or three of us at the table) and I hit a couple of points, switched, and kept hitting points, ending up with a nice win. So, to prevent me from feeling like a complete idiot, my rule, which is now rarely broken, is don't switch unless I am ahead and can afford a few losses and still be ahead.
July 2nd, 2010 at 12:39:37 AM
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Oh yes. We realize that. Sometimes I mutter "maybe I should switch" to a dealer whose taking down all my don'tcome bets ... and just then the shooter will roll a seven and I hear the dealer say to me "you were saying" as he pays off my DontPass and Odds bets.Quote: Chuckthe streak could just as easily turn on the next roll.
July 2nd, 2010 at 3:09:14 AM
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Quote: seattlediceAnother time I had been on the don'ts for a while and was well ahead. My roll came and I shot (I'll do that from time time, usually when I'm ahead or there are only two or three of us at the table)...
Ha! That's something I never thought about before - if you're playing the don'ts and doing really well, your table is probably going to be continually emptying out. Do you find that to be true?
July 2nd, 2010 at 4:08:14 AM
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The worst is to be playing the dark side and you get a hot shooter. Not only is the shooter going to murder your bankroll but you miss out on the fun of the table going on the ride. Therefore, since it doesnt really matter, I have to position myself so I can switch easily until I get the feeling I don't need to fear the shooter [that last part is just some nonsense I allow myself of course].
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 2nd, 2010 at 4:08:45 AM
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Quote: ChuckHa! That's something I never thought about before - if you're playing the don'ts and doing really well, your table is probably going to be continually emptying out. Do you find that to be true?
That is very true. There seems to always be a direct correlation between how many players leave the table and how many chips are in my rack. Opposite is also true by the way...
July 2nd, 2010 at 6:16:58 AM
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Yes. There's a strange dynamic when you get down to just a couple of other players, assuming they are on the pass line -- almost like a me against you. I know it's us against the house, but since our bets are opposite, it just doesn't feel like it plays out that way. Sometimes I'll skip the don't pass and play a don't come - that way the other guy can hit his point then a seven on the next come out and we can both win. Of course, I tried that once and he must have hit 3 or 4 point-7 in a row and we both lost.Quote: ChuckHa! That's something I never thought about before - if you're playing the don'ts and doing really well, your table is probably going to be continually emptying out. Do you find that to be true?
The other thing I notice when I'm alone and shooting from the don't is people walk up to the table and look like they are about to play, then they see what is going on and they can't get away fast enough. Yes, the dark side can be a very lonely place.
July 2nd, 2010 at 7:16:45 AM
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Just once I'd like to get a whole table switched over the dark side. I've heard tell of it happening. Imagine, a bunch of people cheering for the seven out!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
July 2nd, 2010 at 7:20:20 AM
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Quote: teddysJust once I'd like to get a whole table switched over the dark side. I've heard tell of it happening. Imagine, a bunch of people cheering for the seven out!
maybe in that circumstance you could talk the pit boss into letting the shooter keep the dice when he rolled a 7?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 2nd, 2010 at 7:30:25 AM
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Quote: seattlediceYes. There's a strange dynamic when you get down to just a couple of other players, assuming they are on the pass line -- almost like a me against you. I know it's us against the house, but since our bets are opposite, it just doesn't feel like it plays out that way. Sometimes I'll skip the don't pass and play a don't come - that way the other guy can hit his point then a seven on the next come out and we can both win. Of course, I tried that once and he must have hit 3 or 4 point-7 in a row and we both lost.
The other thing I notice when I'm alone and shooting from the don't is people walk up to the table and look like they are about to play, then they see what is going on and they can't get away fast enough. Yes, the dark side can be a very lonely place.
Well it feels that way because it is that way....you are in effect the house for everything except the boxcars on the come-out...at least when you are playing the DP.
July 2nd, 2010 at 8:18:43 AM
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Quote: teddysJust once I'd like to get a whole table switched over the dark side. I've heard tell of it happening. Imagine, a bunch of people cheering for the seven out!
I was downtown Vegas last week and 2 tables at different casinos had 3 and 5 don't players, no do players. Even the dealers were cheering when a 7 out happened!
A few were only don't pass and the don't come players did well also.
Funny, players would walk up to the table, see don't bettors and move on.
At Bill's with Rapid Craps you can bet the don't all day long and only the dealers know you are betting that
way unless you ask a player that smiled when a 7 out happened.
7 winner chicken dinner!
July 2nd, 2010 at 10:12:41 AM
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Quote: teddysJust once I'd like to get a whole table switched over the dark side. I've heard tell of it happening. Imagine, a bunch of people cheering for the seven out!
I've posted this before, but it happened to me at Casino Royale a few years back. There were a bunch of us all betting don'ts. The guy beside me looked like the actor Paul Sorvino (the big boss in Goodfellas). He'd put $2 on a 12 on his come out roll. He hit it three times on his come outs, and split it with the dealers each time.
I don't recall a lot of cheering, but everyone clapped for the 7-outs.
The dealers were saying to interested on-lookers that sometimes the tables just go to the dark side...
July 2nd, 2010 at 10:58:06 AM
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Quote: ahiromuyou're there for a good time not to win money.
Wow! Now that's sick....
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
July 4th, 2010 at 4:55:05 PM
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Quote: seattledicewhen I'm alone and shooting from the don't is people walk up to the table and look like they are about to play, then they see what is going on and they can't get away fast enough.
In the rare instances I shoot, the table grows so hot that a crowd gathers and then the casino ends up calling the Fire Department to hose down the table.
July 4th, 2010 at 4:57:22 PM
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Quote: teddysJust once I'd like to get a whole table switched over the dark side. I've heard tell of it happening. Imagine, a bunch of people cheering for the seven out!
Critical mass seems to start at about three of us.
