Baccaratfrom79
Baccaratfrom79
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March 4th, 2015 at 9:32:41 AM permalink
Deleted per PM request
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
jopke
jopke
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March 10th, 2015 at 10:35:16 PM permalink
If you are playing a negative expectation game all wins are from pure luck, not just the big ones.

Side note: I propose a baccarat sub-forum. The signal/noise ratio in the table games forum is getting frustrating.
EvenBob
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March 10th, 2015 at 10:48:10 PM permalink
Quote: jopke

If you are playing a negative expectation game all wins are from pure luck,.



Not true. If I'm randomly betting r/b in roulette, I
expect to win, and will win, at least 50% of the
time in the not very long run, excluding the zeros.

Luck is not involved at all.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Deucekies
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:38:01 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Not true. If I'm randomly betting r/b in roulette, I
expect to win, and will win, at least 50% of the
time in the not very long run, excluding the zeros.

Luck is not involved at all.



I win 100% of the time that I don't lose. Oh, don't count the break-evens.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
RonC
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:55:54 AM permalink
Quote: jopke

Side note: I propose a baccarat sub-forum. The signal/noise ratio in the table games forum is getting frustrating.



I just took a quick look at the threads and baccarat seems to be mentioned more right now but it likely has more to do with having a good contributor on that subject and less contributors on other games.

It isn't like some dice control thing or something...
Deucekies
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March 11th, 2015 at 10:59:23 AM permalink
Baccarat seems to be getting enough discussion lately to merit its own subforum.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
teliot
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March 11th, 2015 at 11:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

I had a clear 17 chop-chop and should have pumped it up to at least $10k to $25k a hand.

You understand this is nonsense, right?
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Baccaratfrom79
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March 11th, 2015 at 11:18:54 AM permalink
Deleted per request
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
Baccaratfrom79
Baccaratfrom79
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March 11th, 2015 at 11:22:11 AM permalink
Quote: jopke

If you are playing a negative expectation game all wins are from pure luck, not just the big ones.

Side note: I propose a baccarat sub-forum. The signal/noise ratio in the table games forum is getting frustrating.



Not true at all. You can be playing a positive expectation game and every single time you play or wager you might get on a downswing or simply not get the cards, ball drop, color or roll you were 'supposed' to get or 'should have' got.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
teliot
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March 11th, 2015 at 11:43:11 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

You either follow the trend or wager against it. When it is strong, there is no one to change it, likewise when it is weak. True, the pattern seldom holds for a lengthy time, but once you play long enough--an experienced player can sense when to wager heavier or lighter or stop, which would most certainly be the exact equivalent of counting cards at black jack. The highest majority of the players I see, their downfall's are too long playing-unclear mind-influenced by others-failure to walk away or change tables, etc.

You realize that this too is nonsense, right? There are no patterns. There is no trend. Your illusory pattern perception has no similarity with card counting blackjack, which identifies times when the player has an edge over the house. Perhaps this thread belongs in the "Betting Systems" forum, as the claims about when to bet have no foundation. This thread is almost pure noise.
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Baccaratfrom79
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March 11th, 2015 at 11:51:41 AM permalink
Okay, not a problem. I imaginarily won about $25k Asian New Years. Now I understand. Guess I better take a sawzall and cut about 1/3rd of my wife's new SUV off.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
teliot
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March 11th, 2015 at 11:57:57 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

Okay, not a problem. I imaginarily won about $25k Asian New Years. Now I understand. Guess I better take a sawzall and cut about 1/3rd of my wife's new SUV off.

Do you think the person who won the recently Mega-Millions lottery had an edge? Your "system" is nonsense and you make yourself look foolish to the educated among us by trying to defend it.
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Romes
Romes
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:00:04 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

...This thread is almost pure noise.


I kind of like Baccarat, but perhaps this is what you get when you pump out 46 threads in exactly 2 months... He has a good understanding of what he's played (which if we've all learned, from almost every thread, is HIGH LIMIT AT C.P.!!!), but perhaps he doesn't have the math grasp or understanding of AP plays as others here. He still very much enjoys the games, plays a decent enough game, and if he's not going to try to make AP plays or understand AP math, hell might as well have fun figuring out the 'patterns' in which you want to bet with... and we'll all have fun listening to the high roller ride he takes us on. I personally agree with teliot that there are no trends or patterns though.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
MrV
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:05:02 PM permalink
John Patrick has a message board, moribund though it may be, where the subject of "trends" is not dismissed as fallacious thinking.

You might find a more receptive audience there.

This board is primarily for objective, math-oriented analysis / discussion, with no credence given by most posters to superstitious beliefs such as "trends."

Of course, you can continue to post as you have, but expect increasing hostility and criticism.

Looks like the honeymoon is over.
"What, me worry?"
mdh
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:11:57 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

You understand this is nonsense, right?

For those of us that dont know ( and maybe im the only one ), could you or Bac79 explain what a clear 17 chop-chop is? Or is this exclusively Bac79 Bacc lingo?
Baccaratfrom79
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:14:30 PM permalink
Hey, definitely not a problem. You spoke and said it. I promise you there won't be any hostility or even criticism. Zero.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
Deucekies
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:16:56 PM permalink
Betting patterns don't give you an edge, but they don't hurt you either. No matter which way you bet (chop chop or streak) and no matter when you bet it, your odds are the same. If Bac wants to go with a betting pattern to add a little consistency to his life, there's nothing wrong with that. If nothing else, it can benefit you psychologically, as it takes the what-ifs out of the equation.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
EvenBob
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:19:22 PM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

Hey, definitely not a problem. You spoke and said it. I promise you there won't be any hostility or even criticism. Zero.



There be dedicated math people here, and you
have to be verrrrrry careful in what you say.
My daughter is a math professor and it's like
a religion to her. She knows what she knows
and that's all that she knows. I tread very
lightly when she's around.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
teliot
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:20:52 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Betting patterns don't give you an edge, but they don't hurt you either.

If these patterns encourage you to wager more overall, then yes, they definitely hurt you. This type of discussion can hurt others as well who are looking for good advice and can't tell the difference. It is much easier to believe in nonsense than fact.
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Baccaratfrom79
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March 11th, 2015 at 12:28:33 PM permalink
To stop the problem, I will remove myself from the equation. I give you my solemn promise I will not post any further regarding the logistics of the game. I will stick to the general section of the board, if that doesn't become challenging. Boards are supposed to be fun, but hey-it's your board not mine. Please note, I did not say anything humiliating or chastising either about you. And, I never claimed to be an AP'er, have an edge or any advantage. Merely played the game for many years at many properties.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
AxelWolf
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March 11th, 2015 at 1:04:27 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

You realize that this too is nonsense, right? There are no patterns. There is no trend. Your illusory pattern perception has no similarity with card counting blackjack, which identifies times when the player has an edge over the house. Perhaps this thread belongs in the "Betting Systems" forum, as the claims about when to bet have no foundation. This thread is almost pure noise.

There are random trends and patterns AFTER THE FACT and unless someone is a psychic... there's no way anyone is any better at Baccarat under normal conditions than any other person. He's just guessing and that's all. If you guess its trending and bet according to your quess, you might get lucky and win win win.

Assuming Baccaratfrom79 wins and plays as he suggests, Ill assume Baccaratfrom79 has a good job or whatever and can afford to play a negative EV game without much worry. It's no different than someone with less money playing $10 a hand. I'm sure he gets lucky sometimes and unlucky other times.
He may be ahead for his lifetime, I have no clue(doubtful) . I seen his advice to AOS and it seems like he has a lose it and forget it attitude. Refresh and start new after a big loss.. We may have some selective memory issues going on. This all falls in line with seeing trends. Perhaps hes a Gr8player.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
OnceDear
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March 11th, 2015 at 1:21:18 PM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

You either follow the trend or wager against it. When it is strong, there is no one to change it, likewise when it is weak. True, the pattern seldom holds for a lengthy time, but once you play long enough--an experienced player can sense when to wager heavier or lighter or stop, which would most certainly be the exact equivalent of counting cards at black jack. The highest majority of the players I see, their downfall's are too long playing-unclear mind-influenced by others-failure to walk away or change tables, etc.




What was the rule against personal insults? I almost feel it would be worth a short ban for using the correct adjectives and expletives to describe B79 and his thought processes. Still. Let him dream: Let him lose his shirt.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Kerkebet
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March 11th, 2015 at 1:24:26 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

She knows what she knows
and that's all that she knows. I tread very
lightly when she's around.


... like when two black holes meet.
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
sc15
sc15
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March 11th, 2015 at 1:36:03 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

There are random trends and patterns AFTER THE FACT and unless someone is a psychic... there's no way anyone is any better at Baccarat under normal conditions than any other person. He's just guessing and that's all. If you guess its trending and bet according to your quess, you might get lucky and win win win.

Assuming Baccaratfrom79 wins and plays as he suggests, Ill assume Baccaratfrom79 has a good job or whatever and can afford to play a negative EV game without much worry. It's no different than someone with less money playing $10 a hand. I'm sure he gets lucky sometimes and unlucky other times.
He may be ahead for his lifetime, I have no clue(doubtful) . I seen his advice to AOS and it seems like he has a lose it and forget it attitude. Refresh and start new after a big loss.. We may have some selective memory issues going on. This all falls in line with seeing trends. Perhaps hes a Gr8player.



He's posted in other threads that he owns a business.

For his gambling, he's 100% ploppy and his posts prove that.
Kerkebet
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March 11th, 2015 at 1:41:38 PM permalink
Quote: sc15

He's 100% ploppy and his posts prove that.


Doesn't ploppy mean turd?
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
sc15
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March 11th, 2015 at 2:27:09 PM permalink
Quote: Kerkebet

Doesn't ploppy mean turd?



In the context of gambling, it means a player who's playing at a disadvantage.
mcallister3200
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March 11th, 2015 at 2:35:13 PM permalink
Quote: sc15

In the context of gambling, it means a player who's playing at a disadvantage.

I always take it to mean an uninformed gambler, rather than anyone playing at a disadvantage. In any matter, it is absolutely a term that's generally used in a condescending or derogatory manner by AP's and I don't like to use it. What's wrong with civilian or recreational?
teliot
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March 11th, 2015 at 2:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

civilian or recreational

Or "square"
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1BB
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March 11th, 2015 at 2:48:34 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I always take it to mean an uninformed gambler, rather than anyone playing at a disadvantage. In any matter, it is absolutely a term that's generally used in a condescending or derogatory manner by AP's and I don't like to use it. What's wrong with civilian or recreational?



I like Frank Scoblete but I don't like the word ploppy and I never use it. It was Frank who coined the term and I don't think he intended for it to be derogatory. Nevertheless it has become that.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
EvenBob
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March 11th, 2015 at 3:00:46 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

It was Frank who coined the term and I don't think he intended for it to be derogatory. Nevertheless it has become that.



John Patrick was using it in his books
long before Frank. I thought it meant
somebody who just plops into a seat
without any knowledge of the game.

"a ploppy is a gambler that plops his/her a** down at your table when the count is high and starts eating up your good cards."
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
sc15
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March 11th, 2015 at 3:11:46 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I always take it to mean an uninformed gambler, rather than anyone playing at a disadvantage. In any matter, it is absolutely a term that's generally used in a condescending or derogatory manner by AP's and I don't like to use it. What's wrong with civilian or recreational?



When APers say civilian most of the time it's meant in a derogatory manner as well.
Kerkebet
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March 11th, 2015 at 3:42:49 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Or "square"


http://www.ibtimes.com/wombat-poop-why-it-cubed-reason-australian-marsupials-square-droppings-1438518
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
beachbumbabs
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March 12th, 2015 at 8:59:28 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

If these patterns encourage you to wager more overall, then yes, they definitely hurt you. This type of discussion can hurt others as well who are looking for good advice and can't tell the difference. It is much easier to believe in nonsense than fact.



teliot,

I see your point, but I also disagree with the premise that B79 is advocating a betting system. He's been quite clear from the beginning that he's a recreational player, he knows it's a -EV game, and he's been asked elsewhere to discuss how he plays, so he shared that. If anything, he's simply a guy who sets a loss limit, stops when his BR is exhausted, and can get up from the table when he's up rather than giving it back. It seems clear in the thread that the math guys including you have stated emphatically that trends don't matter and can prove it mathematically, so that seems like a good discussion to have documented for like-minded individuals. I don't see the need to move it to betting systems; it's useful where it is.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
teliot
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March 12th, 2015 at 9:25:47 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I also disagree with the premise that B79 is advocating a betting system.

A betting system uses prior results to determine the current wager, without any consideration for the house edge.
Quote: B79

I had a clear 17 chop-chop and should have pumped it up to at least $10k to $25k a hand.

There are plenty of boards around where people can say stuff like this and be praised. What makes WoV different is that this kind of nonsense gets called out for what it is (except in the betting systems forum, where the sub-header reads: "for the mathematically challenged, here is a forum of your own.").
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beachbumbabs
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March 12th, 2015 at 9:36:07 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

A betting system uses prior results to determine the current wager, without any consideration for the house edge.



You and I are seeing the same thing and taking it two different ways, I think. He's a superstitious, recreational player who knows it, not a system advocate; he was asked what he does and he answered. You and the others have debunked his trend reliance and he's not disagreeing, but he's also going to play what he plays despite the math, it seems. I find the whole thing educational, but not harmful or spam-ish to the board.

I could easily be overruled by Mike on this, but I think the thread speaks for itself. Not at all disputing your read on his play; in fact, it's a good, periodic reminder of the fallacy of trends in a no-decision game, and I appreciate your expert participation.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
djatc
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March 12th, 2015 at 9:37:52 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Not true. If I'm randomly betting r/b in roulette, I
expect to win, and will win, at least 50% of the
time in the not very long run, excluding the zeros.

Luck is not involved at all.



"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
1BB
1BB
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March 12th, 2015 at 10:07:57 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

Deleted per PM request



Someone actually sent you a PM requesting you to delete the post that started this thread?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
aceofspades
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March 12th, 2015 at 10:35:26 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

If these patterns encourage you to wager more overall, then yes, they definitely hurt you.





I thought, on this board, that we are to look at the EV of a wager, not the actual monetary amount of a wager…?
AxelWolf
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March 12th, 2015 at 10:47:42 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

What don't you get? if he spins 1 time in (the not very long run)he has a 50% chance of winning minus the green (I assume he said minus the green because he doesn't know that it's about 47.3 % of the time on 00 roulette )

He should have a better chance to win, and will win in the not very long run way more often than that if he walks away anytime hes up. he could just use Marty and have a huge chance of being a winner. Find a single zero roulette (I know you know of at least one) you can have over a 99% chance of winning. unfortunately the 1 time you get screwed you will cry.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Kerkebet
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March 12th, 2015 at 10:48:37 AM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

I thought, on this board, that we are to look at the EV of a wager, not the actual monetary amount of a wager…?


The perceived EV inherent in randomness.

But, the point of "regression to the mean" is that it doesn't happen with enough expectation to be of actual use in overcoming "luck".
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
AxelWolf
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March 12th, 2015 at 11:12:57 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

teliot,

I see your point, but I also disagree with the premise that B79 is advocating a betting system. He's been quite clear from the beginning that he's a recreational player, he knows it's a -EV game, and he's been asked elsewhere to discuss how he plays, so he shared that. If anything, he's simply a guy who sets a loss limit, stops when his BR is exhausted, and can get up from the table when he's up rather than giving it back. It seems clear in the thread that the math guys including you have stated emphatically that trends don't matter and can prove it mathematically, so that seems like a good discussion to have documented for like-minded individuals. I don't see the need to move it to betting systems; it's useful where it is.

BBB No matter what he has said in the past some of his posts such as this(read it careful)
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

You either follow the trend or wager against it. When it is strong, there is no one to change it, likewise when it is weak. True, the pattern seldom holds for a lengthy time, but once you play long enough--an experienced player can sense when to wager heavier or lighter or stop, which would most certainly be the exact equivalent of counting cards at black jack. The highest majority of the players I see, their downfall's are too long playing-unclear mind-influenced by others-failure to walk away or change tables, etc.

sound exactly like something notorious voodoo system gr8player would say. some of Bac79's post suggest he has a winning system.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EvenBob
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March 12th, 2015 at 12:12:19 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

What don't you get?.



The math says when flipping a coin
I'll see heads 50% of the time in the
not very long run. Luck has zero to
do with it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Kerkebet
Kerkebet
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March 12th, 2015 at 12:32:00 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Luck has zero to do with it.


Good grief.

Quantum science explained or slayed, at last.
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
teliot
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March 12th, 2015 at 12:43:32 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

I thought, on this board, that we are to look at the EV of a wager, not the actual monetary amount of a wager…?

When the EV is negative, either don't bet (if you are not an AP or are Wonging out) or bet your minimum (wating bet) until your advantage play opportunity happens. If you have the edge, bet the appropriate Kelly fraction. If you think that "this board" has a different opinion on optimal wagering, I'd like to know what "this board" thinks.
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wudged
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March 12th, 2015 at 12:46:38 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

I thought, on this board, that we are to look at the EV of a wager, not the actual monetary amount of a wager…?



The EV is based on the edge and monetary amount of the wager. If you are wagering more on negative/house edge bets, then your EV is worse.
odiousgambit
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March 12th, 2015 at 12:56:19 PM permalink
I'm late to this thread

Bacc-79 is a unique poster IMO, as an author of them, fairly enjoyable to read; some insight into the world of a gambler who's willing to make big bets, get great comps ... evidently something quite below a whale, from what he has said. But vastly higher roller than myself

Teliot's objection was coming, I could see it. Previous attempts to get confirmation on whatever he believes he can do hadn't gotten much response. I see he is deleting posts now.

Is Teliot right that he simply should be squashed on a site like this? Do we have the civic duty to protect less educated readers?

I do not feel that burden, but perhaps it is admirable in someone who does. Not sure.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
teliot
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March 12th, 2015 at 1:01:35 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Teliot's objection was coming, I could see it. Previous attempts to get confirmation on whatever he believes he can do hadn't gotten much response. I see he is deleting posts now.

It is remarkable that he let one man's comments have so much effect on his participation. He had many other options, not least of which was admitting he was wrong and seeking education from the incredible wealth of talent on this board.
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sc15
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March 12th, 2015 at 1:07:10 PM permalink
of course B79 believes in his voodoo BS.

Nobody who plays that kind of money goes into a casino thinking "I'm here to lose 1.xx% every wager"
EvenBob
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March 12th, 2015 at 1:48:40 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

Someone actually sent you a PM requesting you to delete the post that started this thread?



Where did B79's post about this go? It
was there an hour ago.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
aceofspades
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March 12th, 2015 at 2:06:34 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

When the EV is negative, either don't bet (if you are not an AP or are Wonging out) or bet your minimum (wating bet) until your advantage play opportunity happens. If you have the edge, bet the appropriate Kelly fraction. If you think that "this board" has a different opinion on optimal wagering, I'd like to know what "this board" thinks.





Yes, but you did not mention Kelly in your original post
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