Probabilities of successive points in craps
June 25th, 2010 at 7:03:28 PM
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In craps, what is the probabilities of a shooter making his first, second, third, fourth, fifth, & 6th points. These points do not have to be different numbers(fire bet). I'm sure this has been posted before, but I'm unable to find it. Thanks for the help, Catfish !
June 25th, 2010 at 7:28:46 PM
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((10/24)*(5/11)+(8/24)*(2/5)+(6/24)*(1/3))^X
where X is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
where X is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
June 25th, 2010 at 7:35:40 PM
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Check out https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps-probability/
The third question:
So the odds of making any single point is: 40.61%
Therefore, the odds of making 6 random points is: 40.61% ^ 6 = 0.4061^6 = 0.004485367 = 0.45%
I.E. Just under one half percent.
The third question:
Quote:On average, after establishing a point in craps how often will the player make the point?
Given that a point was made 5/12 of the time it will be a 6 or 8, 4/12 a 5 or 9, and 3/12 a 4 or 10. The probability of making a 6 or 8 is 5/11, a 5 or 9 is 4/10, and a 4 or 10 is 3/9. So the probability of making a point, given that a point was established is, (5/12)*(5/11)+(4/12)*(4/10)+(3/12)*(3/9) = 40.61%.
So the odds of making any single point is: 40.61%
Therefore, the odds of making 6 random points is: 40.61% ^ 6 = 0.4061^6 = 0.004485367 = 0.45%
I.E. Just under one half percent.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
June 25th, 2010 at 7:55:31 PM
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By the way, if you want to know where that formula for the 40.61% comes from, go to: https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps-faq/
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
