Ultimate Texas Holdem ....comps

My local casino has a good cash back program for this game.

I need some help with the math.

Can I have +EV with there cash back program?

The casino will give me back a cash amount of the size of my ante wager per hour.
The ony problem I see is that I have to bet the ante and the blind. then play optimum stratagey.
Is it worth the trouble?

Table max is $125 for the ante bet

Nickjr

Quote: nickjr

My local casino has a good cash back program for this game.

I need some help with the math.

Can I have +EV with there cash back program?

The casino will give me back a cash amount of the size of my ante wager per hour.
The ony problem I see is that I have to bet the ante and the blind. then play optimum stratagey.
Is it worth the trouble?

Table max is $125 for the ante bet

Nickjr

CASH BACK? amount of the size of my ante wager per hour? Are you sure?

Quote: AxelWolf

CASH BACK? amount of the size of my ante wager per hour? Are you sure?

Road trip!

$125 is a weird max bet too. Something does not seem right.

Optimum strategy is not too hard. Feel free to use a strategy card. You can buy a good one (by James Grosjean) from the LV Gambler's Bookstore (online) for $6 or something. It is a great card. I think there is a link to it from the Wizard's site.

The house edge is about 2.2%. If they deal 30 hands per hour (UTH is not a fast game) you are losing 66% of a bet per hour, and getting a whole bet back. So you are making 1/3 of a bet per hour. If you max-bet, that is $40/hr.

Do they have a max payout? Max payouts increase the house edge significantly. Details are on the Wizard's site.

Personally I do not think that it's worth it for $40/hr -- the swings are very large, and if you have the bankroll to withstand the swings then you probably don't care about $40/hr. Playing under-bankrolled is a bad idea. But... if you just want to play for fun (ie, if it's not "work" to you) then you have a nice edge.

Also if dealers make mistakes (which is not uncommon in this game) then you can really clean up. Very common is dealers who pay ante bets they should push (due to not qualifying). Just one of these per hour takes your hourly edge from $40 to $165 -- it's huge! Less common (but not unheard of) is dealers who can't read the board and often have no idea who won. Correct them only when their mistakes go against you, of course.

Quote: Pokeraddict

Road trip!

$125 is a weird max bet too. Something does not seem right.

You drive. I prefer an RV. I think I can double the hourly.

Quote: Pokeraddict

Road trip!

$125 is a weird max bet too. Something does not seem right.

Hmmmm. Strangely enough, now that I'm thinking about this. Its possible OP changed some details or is just being veg and it's more complicated. I may have heard something about this.

there prolly is more too it- really strange promotion as well

I think you can safely assume that this is too good to be true. Casinos rarely make blunders like this any more. Even if it turned out to be legit, betting the table max would draw enough attention to kill the play. Not to mention that most people dabble in this game, but you'd be hunched over the table for hours at a time, betting black and green. Not sustainable if you really do have an advantage. You might find out after you're done that the cashback offer has been "withdrawn." (And good luck complaining when that happens.)

Quote: Eaglesnest

Even if it turned out to be legit, betting the table max would draw enough attention to kill the play.

I've learned that shoving hands like K8 and JT are enough to get unwanted attention from dealers and floors. Playing this by the book with black action is going to stress out a lot of people and get the table watched closer, which is even more -EV if you know what I mean.

As I said, the OP might be intentionally omitting information. There are plays like this but more complicated. There is probably a limit per hr, max per day you can earn. I would be willing to bet I could find something that fits.

Quote: Pokeraddict

I've learned that shoving hands like K8 and JT are enough to get unwanted attention from dealers and floors. Playing this by the book with black action is going to stress out a lot of people and get the table watched closer, which is even more -EV if you know what I mean.

Possibly but no need to bet table max to earn near the same. If this is a marketing mistake and the pit is not aware how much the player is getting. One or two people, with a good act, will just seem like big suckers.

this offer is way more common than you think. it's just not usually advertised as such. the swings can be pretty enormous, I wouldn't really advocate playing a game like this if that was your advantage. OTOH, the mail can be generous, so if you're local and new, it can often be worth it to play, sometimes even without the cashback.

rating is, unlike a slot, just a number or pair of numbers that a lowly paid employee enters into a console. there are a lot of things that might affect his/her perception of your action. this is most useful for the recreational red/green chip player who would like a steak dinner instead of a sandwich.

Quote: Eaglesnest

I think you can safely assume that this is too good to be true. Casinos rarely make blunders like this any more. Even if it turned out to be legit, betting the table max would draw enough attention to kill the play. Not to mention that most people dabble in this game, but you'd be hunched over the table for hours at a time, betting black and green. Not sustainable if you really do have an advantage. You might find out after you're done that the cashback offer has been "withdrawn." (And good luck complaining when that happens.)

I know people who made 6 figures betting purple at this game.

Quote: AxelWolf

Possibly but no need to bet table max to earn near the same. If this is a marketing mistake and the pit is not aware how much the player is getting. One or two people, with a good act, will just seem like big suckers.

My experience at this game is that no act is needed. They assume that everyone who is playing this game is a sucker. Doubly so if you don't play the trips because "that's where you win your money".

The bottom line is that by not playing the trips bet, you are going to stick out. Anyone with a clue is going to know that you are playing properly, act or not. And if they don't have a clue, no act is necessary. 4x betting with king-high looks like a sucker move to them; that's all the act you need.

Quote: Pokeraddict

$125 is a weird max bet too. Something does not seem right.

$125 max allows for a $500 4-bet. $500 makes sense as a max bet.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

My experience at this game is that no act is needed. They assume that everyone who is playing this game is a sucker. Doubly so if you don't play the trips because "that's where you win your money".

The bottom line is that by not playing the trips bet, you are going to stick out. Anyone with a clue is going to know that you are playing properly, act or not. And if they don't have a clue, no act is necessary. 4x betting with king-high looks like a sucker move to them; that's all the act you need.

bet min on trips bet.

Quote: AxelWolf

bet min on trips bet.

Why do people think that this is such a good promo? For $40/hr/seat? And you are going to play the sucker bets for cover?

If the dealers make lots of mistakes this is great, otherwise this is a waste of time. IMO if you have the bankroll for this you are better off spreading $100-$500 at the black-chip double-deck blackjack game that they have at a lot of MGM properties. You will make more money.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Why do people think that this is such a good promo? For $40/hr/seat? And you are going to play the sucker bets for cover?

If the dealers make lots of mistakes this is great, otherwise this is a waste of time. IMO if you have the bankroll for this you are better off spreading $100-$500 at the black-chip double-deck blackjack game that they have at a lot of MGM properties. You will make more money.

Worth more than $40 I will explain privately.

even @ 40 its not bad for an AP, not everyone has a nice fk around job like you. People like this game, A bunch of us played for fun the other night.

Quote: AxelWolf

Worth more than $40 I will explain privately.

even @ 40 its not bad for an AP not everyone has a nice fk around job like you. People like this game, A bunch of us played for fun the other night.

But the swings are massive. A significant portion of your return comes from the blind bet payout on quads, SF, and RF. That means that you need a big bankroll. You can lose a lot of money between big hands.

I am not saying that $40/hr is bad, just that the bankroll requirements are so large that, if you can afford to play, you can make more playing a good blackjack game at similar limits.

If you have a $10k bankroll, $40/hr is great, but you can't play this with a $10k bankroll.

Quote: AxelWolf

As I said, the OP might be intentionally omitting information. There are plays like this but more complicated. There is probably a limit per hr, max per day you can earn. I would be willing to bet I could find something that fits.

It's always extremely dangerous to put significant action into an inherently -EV play, depending on the casino to fulfill a promise to rebate or otherwise credit back a portion of that action, presumably enough to compensate for that accumulated -EV. The Revel loss rebate players certainly learned this, and players large and small all over Vegas are learning it every day: you can't trust a casino to honor its promises.

I would DEFINITELY expect them to renege if you had a good run and wound up plus $5000 or so. Cash back? Oh, no, sir, that's only for albino left-handed proctologists from Kentucky. You must not have read the promotional brochure thoroughly.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

My experience at this game is that no act is needed. They assume that everyone who is playing this game is a sucker. Doubly so if you don't play the trips because "that's where you win your money".

The bottom line is that by not playing the trips bet, you are going to stick out. Anyone with a clue is going to know that you are playing properly, act or not. And if they don't have a clue, no act is necessary. 4x betting with king-high looks like a sucker move to them; that's all the act you need.

so very true.

What is the RF cycle on this game? I know a BJ counter that also plays this game (A LOT) and she's hit like 4 royals.... I thought I heard a royal should take about 1000 hours of play at UTH but maybe that was something else.

Quote: BTLWI

What is the RF cycle on this game? I know a BJ counter that also plays this game (A LOT) and she's hit like 4 royals.... I thought I heard a royal should take about 1000 hours of play at UTH but maybe that was something else.

If the game is a bit slow maybe. I thought UTH is closer to 40 hands/hr and the probability of a royal is:

4*[C(7,5)-1]*C(47,2)/C(52,7)/C(7,5) =4*20*1081/133,784,560/21 = 1 in 32,487

At 40 hands an hour, that would be about 1 in 812 hours on average. And of course your payout for this hand is $62,500 assuming they don't cap the payout at $50,000, and would be a good chunk of the hourly expectation.

I think 25-30hands per hour is more accurate for this game. Of course it depends on how many players there are. Also maybe I tend to play against bad dealers:)

Quote: Hunterhill

I think 25-30hands per hour is more accurate for this game. Of course it depends on how many players there are. Also maybe I tend to play against bad dealers:)

Yeah I really wasn't sure myself. I just had the rate 40 hands/hr in my head with regards to this game from reading something somewhere. Sounds like that could be a bit off.