Pass vs. Don't Pass

I played some craps last night and I go killed!! I started out betting the pass line and took some odds, and the first 3 times the shooter crapped out. I then switched up and started betting the don't pass with some odds, and I won the first 2 times, but then lost the last 5 (which in turn caused me to lose my bankroll)!! Which of these bets is suppose to lose less in the long run? Also, should I just stick to betting the pass or don't pass continuously for the entire night, or does switching it up even help? Craps seems like a entertaining game, but you can lose a ton of money quick!!

Craps as a game requires a pretty high bankroll - the variance is quite high as I guess you've learned the hard way. Technically speaking, the don't pass has a higher EV than the pass line but not by much. Should you just stick to one? Purely personal preference. I usually do, because if I switch and get boned I feel like a retard. Since it seems like you're still learning the game, I would recommend going to a table and placing a minimum on the 6/8. $5 table, $6 place bets (12 total). $10 table, $12 place bets (24 total). This will get you a lot of action with a relatively low variance until maybe you can build up your bankroll to play the pass line hardcore if you want to. With the place bets, you're giving up an EV of about a penny per dollar bet which is quite negligible.

too small a bankroll. You need to be able to survive 10 rolls even if you lose each one, and hardly blink.

I don't want to sound too crass, I hate that too... still...

one dont bet and laying max odds will always be the best strategy since it holds the least house edge. dont come is preferable over dont pass since the dealer is more prone to make errors.

Most of the time I decide whether I'm going to play pass or don't pass before I make my first bet and the stick with that, with one exception: if I'm well ahead after playing the don't and the shooter has hit a couple of points and table "feels" right (not that any of that makes a difference) I might make a small passline bet. Sometimes it works and I keep going and end up with a bigger win. Sometimes it doesn't work and I still color up with a nice win. There is really nothing wrong with switching, but if I'm losing and switch, and keep losing I feel like an idiot.

Dice makes a good point, craps is a game of feelings. You come into the game knowing the right bets, pass/come/dont's and placing the 6/8 and buying the 4/10 with the vig paid afterwards, and stick with those. Don't feel bad to switch between them though depending on how you FEEL. Absolutely nothing feels better in this game than to make a "choice" to go with a "feeling" and be right and that's why we gamble right? To have fun nothing else.

You'll get ruined if you start putting those "feelings" above logic, such as betting in the middle of the table. But... show me one craps player who doesn't have a favorite hop bet and I'll show you someone who hasn't played long enough. Personally mine are the craps "check" and the hi-lo for a buck.

Quote: rudeboyoi

one dont bet and laying max odds will always be the best strategy since it holds the least house edge. dont come is preferable over dont pass since the dealer is more prone to make errors.

I agree about the dont pass holding the least HA, but the pass and the dont each win and lose very differently. The pass line when it wins, wins about 45% on the come out roll and 55% with a point established, so it is better to bet most of the pass line on the odds bet. The pass line when it loses, will lose about 22% of the time on the come out roll and the other 78% of the time with a point established.

The dont wins about 20% on the come out and around 80% on a point number. This is why I always lay max odds and have a nice bankroll when playing the don't pass. It loses about 42% on the come out roll and about 58% when a point is established.

My wife and I usually play together and we always decide which side to play BEFORE going to the casino. (usually ends up being the don't by the way) For us, it seems that if we switch sides, even in a random or predetermined manor (ex. after losing two in a row switch) we always seem to end up on exactly the wrong side at the wrong time. We will stick to the side we pick till the bitter end or a nice win. I think that the key was already stated by someone above, and that is having a large enough bank roll to "weather the storm" craps is a game where the dice are always seeking the middle so to speak. ( a cold table will turn hot and hot table will turn cold )

So it seems that most of you just stick to betting 1 side and try to ride out lows. It also seems like the don't pass is a little better bet than the pass, so I will keep that in mind. At a $5 craps table, what is a good bankroll to go in with? I went in to this table with $80, and as I said at the top, I got killed!

Personally, I bring a few rounds of $200-300 buy-ins when I go to Vegas - $300-400 for a single round locally. Chances are, one of those will be hot and I'll make a few hundred and the others I'll just go bust (for Vegas). I've heard figures of anywhere from 8-10 times. In other words, if your average bet is $50 I'd bring $400-500. When I started out gambling, I'd bring $100 and go bust... that's lame. At the very least, make it so that you can get screwed 4-5 times without recouping any losses.

Quote: rudeboyoi

one dont bet and laying max odds will always be the best strategy since it holds the least house edge. dont come is preferable over dont pass since the dealer is more prone to make errors.

The difference between the pass and don't pass is one unit out of 1980 decisions! It is not enough to worry about. The original poster was playing with a small buyin, so "laying max odds" is probably not a good idea, especially since on the "darkside" you lay the long end of the odds. It's not just about the house edge; it's about volatility.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: ahiromu

Craps as a game requires a pretty high bankroll - the variance is quite high as I guess you've learned the hard way.

Craps bets vary a great deal in variance; in fact, the line bets have quite low variance, since they pay even money and have close to a 50% chance of winning. The reason the original poster busted was being under-capitalized. If you only have a few times your bet amount as a buyin, you have a high "risk of ruin".

Quote: ahiromu

Since it seems like you're still learning the game, I would recommend going to a table and placing a minimum on the 6/8. $5 table, $6 place bets (12 total). $10 table, $12 place bets (24 total). This will get you a lot of action with a relatively low variance until maybe you can build up your bankroll to play the pass line hardcore if you want to. With the place bets, you're giving up an EV of about a penny per dollar bet which is quite negligible.

The passline has lower variance than any place bet, so why bet $12 with a standard deviation of almost $13 when you can bet $5 with an SD of $5? For a newbie with a short bankroll, I would recommend betting the minimum on the pass and, if you get ahead a few units, take single odds. The odds bet pays true odds, unlike the place bets. BTW, that last statement about "a penny per dollar" is only true of the 6/8; the other place bets have higher edges.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: IAchance5

So it seems that most of you just stick to betting 1 side and try to ride out lows. It also seems like the don't pass is a little better bet than the pass, so I will keep that in mind. At a $5 craps table, what is a good bankroll to go in with? I went in to this table with $80, and as I said at the top, I got killed!

It doesn't make any difference which side you bet or whether you switch; the expectation is the same. You can never know what the next decision will be, or the next five decisions, or... You might just as well flip a coin every time and bet pass if it's head, DP if it's tails.

As far as "risk of ruin" goes, there are several factors: 1) your bets, type and amount; 2) your buying; 3) how long do you want to play?

Some examples:

$5 pass bet, $80 bankroll, chance of lasting two hours (figuring 100 rolls/hr) is 95%. That's 16 times your bet amount, so you have to be real unlucky to bust.

$5 pass, take single odds, $80 bankroll, chance of lasting two hours is just 69%. You're betting more, and odds bets have higher variance, since they pay more, but have lower win probabilities.

If you're taking single odds, a $150 buyin will give you about the same 95% chance of lasting two hours as $80 will without odds. In either case, the expected loss is the same, very small, but your results will vary more with odds.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

e43135

I have finally been convinced to NOT bet max odds ALL the time thanks to the posts in this thread and I LOVE the change. I always knew I was short rolling as far as funds go, $300-$1,000 buy ins with table minimum and max odds and pressing my bets 1.5 times after a win. When it was good it was good when it was bad it was very bad and fast.

Today I played for the first time with no odds, single odds, and double odds (with the occasional 3, 5, or 10x IF I already was ahead just cause I missed the suspense of the the big variance).

I had one buy of $100 last over an hour before ruin (typically $100 would be an odds bet for me) and then I walked around enjoyed some bands and came back with $40, I ended up cashing out for $210. It was less stressful more casual and more social for me. The low house edge of odds is lovely but now I have a better understanding of the variance X factor.

As far as pass versus don't, you can win either way of course. I have the same experience as many of you where switching it up can often leave you on the losing side time after time. Today I stuck to the pass and with the smaller odds bets a loss wasn't as catastrophic as what I'm used to.

A year ago I switched to the don't side. After 5 years of free meals, hotels, shows, and whatever I needed, my comps have dried up. Prior to last year I would buy in for $200-300 and do a standard spread, nothing fancy. Usually an hour later I was hitting the ATM for a general weekend loss of $1k. I still frequete the same casinos. I play where I am comped. I asked about the comps all I get is a smile and told(wait for 24hrs and the comps will be there, not). I go home with money now and do not need to visit the ATM anymore. Now with a $100 buy in I can usually clear several hundred from the don't with initial $5-$10 bets but no comps accumulate. I realize my usual 1k loss was paying for the trips. The comments and help, I am going this weekend. I am going to raise my don't flat to $25-$50 from $5-$10 with 2x lay on 6,8 only. Do you think I will see an increase in comps and will my increased winnings be ignored? The real question, "how do I get comps again without leaving money in the casino." Getting comps and getting money out of the casino is nice instead of getting comps and leaving money.

Quote: likeplayingcrapsandbj

I am going to raise my don't flat to $25-$50 from $5-$10 with 2x lay on 6,8 only.

Interesting. If feeling cautious, I lay the odds only when the point is 5,9,10, or 4, since I feel I am less likely to run into a streak of bad luck on my big bets. Shooter making the 6 or 8 is only slightly less likely than a 7-out. Of course the 6 or 8 pay better when laying, which should not be ignored.

My recent thinking is definitely that the worst aspect of playing Right is being subject to streaks of bad luck of big free odds bets going south. It's the element of taking the small end of the odds, and the chances of streaks doing so, that I'm thinking about. It is 99% percent a matter of avoiding crushed morale, since the overall expectation doesnt really change.

Seems to me you are not only betting the dark side, but also avoiding bets in the range of 2% or more HE [you say you used to do a spread but do not seem to now]. Just the dark side as a change would not really effect anything as far as EV except to the most minor degree imaginable.

btw I am the wrong guy to ask about Comps.

Quote: justaguy

I have finally been convinced to NOT bet max odds ALL the time thanks to the posts in this thread and I LOVE the change. I always knew I was short rolling as far as funds go, $300-$1,000 buy ins with table minimum and max odds and pressing my bets 1.5 times after a win. When it was good it was good when it was bad it was very bad and fast.

Today I played for the first time with no odds, single odds, and double odds (with the occasional 3, 5, or 10x IF I already was ahead just cause I missed the suspense of the the big variance).

I had one buy of $100 last over an hour before ruin (typically $100 would be an odds bet for me) and then I walked around enjoyed some bands and came back with $40, I ended up cashing out for $210. It was less stressful more casual and more social for me. The low house edge of odds is lovely but now I have a better understanding of the variance X factor.

As far as pass versus don't, you can win either way of course. I have the same experience as many of you where switching it up can often leave you on the losing side time after time. Today I stuck to the pass and with the smaller odds bets a loss wasn't as catastrophic as what I'm used to.

Just a guy, that is good to hear. It is the sign of an advanced, smart gambler who can lower his bets when he understands his risk of ruin is too high. A lot of people don't understand that. (*Ahem* me). When I read your first post that said you bet $100 in odds, I was going to respond, but I see you corrected it yourself. Cheers. By the way, where do you usually play? Someplace with big odds, obviously. (You don't have to answer that if you think that will give up your place of employment).

Quote: likeplayingcrapsandbj

A year ago I switched to the don't side. After 5 years of free meals, hotels, shows, and whatever I needed, my comps have dried up. Prior to last year I would buy in for $200-300 and do a standard spread, nothing fancy. Usually an hour later I was hitting the ATM for a general weekend loss of $1k. I still frequete the same casinos. I play where I am comped. I asked about the comps all I get is a smile and told(wait for 24hrs and the comps will be there, not). I go home with money now and do not need to visit the ATM anymore. Now with a $100 buy in I can usually clear several hundred from the don't with initial $5-$10 bets but no comps accumulate. I realize my usual 1k loss was paying for the trips. The comments and help, I am going this weekend. I am going to raise my don't flat to $25-$50 from $5-$10 with 2x lay on 6,8 only. Do you think I will see an increase in comps and will my increased winnings be ignored? The real question, "how do I get comps again without leaving money in the casino." Getting comps and getting money out of the casino is nice instead of getting comps and leaving money.

It doesn't matter. If the casino was comping you on the pass, they should be comping you on the don't, because the expectation is the same. That's the sign of a dense floor crew. In my opinion. You should take your play elsewhere. The only thing raising your flat bet to $25-50 is going to accomplish is to increase your long-term expected loss.

Quote: odiousgambit

My recent thinking is definitely that the worst aspect of playing Right is being subject to streaks of bad luck of big free odds bets going south. It's the element of taking the small end of the odds, and the chances of streaks doing so, that I'm thinking about. It is 99% percent a matter of avoiding crushed morale, since the overall expectation doesnt really change.

My 2 cents worth of 50 years dice dealing and playing experience.

Yes, One NEVER knows with 100% certainty when a streak will happen, let alone a really BAD steak. I have and have seen more money LOST because of real long bad steaks, a bankroll killer. How about 23 straight pass line losers, and NOBODY wanted to start betting the don't or to even slow down their odds betting. The table was full when it started and was down to one player when he rolled a 7winner!

The main culprit is players betting AGAINST the steak or the current trend and betting TOO MUCH against the streak. I would be a millionaire many times over IF I had only bet less during those awful bad losing streaks. LOL

Maybe I have learned my lesson and the next 72 years of craps playing, when I lose I will lose less and when I win I will win more. The member 'goatcabin" has some great posts and blogs and sure hammers home why one should make the better bets. Great work Alan.

I have heard different things. One casino told me my flat and my odds are added together for the total bet per hour, another says only the flat is considered. Another one told me they ignore the don't because I don't bet enough. I don't know anymore. There does not appear to be any consistancy.

Quote: 7winner

My 2 cents worth of 50 years dice dealing and playing experience.

Yes, One NEVER knows with 100% certainty when a streak will happen, let alone a really BAD steak. I have and have seen more money LOST because of real long bad steaks, a bankroll killer. How about 23 straight pass line losers, and NOBODY wanted to start betting the don't or to even slow down their odds betting. The table was full when it started and was down to one player when he rolled a 7winner!

After 23 straight passline losers, it's easy to look back and say you or somebody else should have switched or quit, but at no point during that streak did the pass bet have any less than a .4929 probability of winning, nor a DP more than a .4930 p(win), so there was really no rational reason to switch (or not to, for that matter).

Quote: 7winner

The main culprit is players betting AGAINST the steak or the current trend and betting TOO MUCH against the streak. I would be a millionaire many times over IF I had only bet less during those awful bad losing streaks. LOL

Well, that's one side of the Gambler's Fallacy: if the pass hasn't won for a while, it's "due". In blackjack, it makes sense to up your bets if you can tell the deck is favorable; in craps (assuming random rollers) it is never favorable.

Quote: 7winner

Maybe I have learned my lesson and the next 72 years of craps playing, when I lose I will lose less and when I win I will win more. The member 'goatcabin" has some great posts and blogs and sure hammers home why one should make the better bets. Great work Alan.

Thank you.
Cheers,
Alan Shank (goatcabin)

I don't play where I work, I am a ridiculously huge fan of Downtown. I typically play at the El Cortez, it's the first casino I ever played Craps @ and it's till my favorite. It just doesn't feel like "dice" to me if there isn't someone at the table fresh from release from CCDC, on day-pass from the nearby mental institution, obviously homeless with an under $10 buy-in (I like gritty urban color). Also why I like places like slots-a-fun (Man I love "Ganstas" who throw the dice "Rainbow-Style" but only if they keep it on the table).
But I'll play anywhere with @ least 3-5-7 odds (with the exception of slots-a-fun and I want to try wild wild west for grit).
Last night I tried Golden Gate and I really liked it, no local color, but had colorful biker tourists who were loud and learning the game and way open to advice from the dealers and other players. Very friendly dealers and overall a good game with not a lot of stupidness (dice stayed on table, everyone bet quickly even when they were learning bets, no complicated bets or patterns). I bet my first Horn just for shits and giggles (I wanted to see the dealers reaction when after hours of pass/pass + odds only I said $5 Horn high dealer parlay just to show I know the game somewhat, yes I know it's a bad bet). Less variance was a hard won lesson for me, I like this new style for me versus very heavy odds (I don't have the stomach to see $60 flat with $300 odds go down again :().

As far as comps, I'm probably stating the obvious but the bigger average bets will help (buy-in, average bet, and time). Whatever you can do to increase those things will help. Such as, betting bigger at the start of play to skew your average bet, slowing down your play (sitting out a hand or two every so often, not enough to have the pit bosses dock it from your time, but enough to increase your time at the table), clumping your play to one long session or one day (the infamous daily theo). Also don't be shy to ask about your rating ("what do you have for my time/average bet ect") You can usually talk them into adjusting it if you feel something is off. Sorry I don't know any non-obvious things to point out at the moment, but I think your average bet going from $5/$10 to $25/$50 should make a difference.

El Cortez is fantastic for dice. Other places have higher odds, but you can't beat them for atmosphere. For a locals' joint, I like Joker's Wild. I love how I can go back there every year and they still have the same dealers! (Say hi to Kaycee for me :)) If only they didn't close their table at 12:00 every night! (But then we just go to Eastside Cannery).

Quote: teddys

El Cortez is fantastic for dice.

Yeah! Another EC lover.
I love it there also teddys. Of course us old timers like anything from the old school...
$3 to $1000 10x odds and all the prop bets, even HOP bets if you want them. Box are really laid back and the dealers are not the worst in Vegas as most think they are.

Just have to watch your chips and some of the less unfortunates that walk thru and play there. I be there in 2 weeks!

The ElCo rocks for dice!, it seem to me, less 7 outs than other places (no match to back it up just feel). Dealers are good, I sometimes don't like the comments from them, such as one time I was buying in with $300 the dealers said "that's too much!", it's not their money they should trust I know what I can afford. I walked with over $500 that session. I miss the pit boss that looked like Butthead from Beavis and Butthead (sorry I don't know his name).

Joker's Wild is fun too, just too far in the middle of nowhere for me to get out their as often as I'd like. When Alan was talking about stretching a $80=$150 bankroll to 2 hours using no odds to 1 times odds I thought of the Wild. For 1 dollar more than %5 @ 1 times odds you can experience the lowered house edge plus higher variance of 10 times odds.