Mississippi Stud Question

In your basic strategy for this game it says you should triple first bet on pairs 2-5 then play single play if you do not improve the. Triple down if you do for 2nd and 3rd cards. I propose not playing these hands at all at it appears harder to improve on this hand. I realize you conceded the hand and one unit each time you do. My play has negative EV, but I don't understand how tripling down a losing hand provides a positive EV either. Please explain or point me to proper direction to find answer. Thanks!!!

because when those pairs 2-5 do improve, it will be much better if you had bet 3x at the first opportunity than if you hadn't.

another, more correct way, to say this is that if you look at all the possibilities of how the hand can play out, you will on average make more money with pairs 2-5 by tripling your first bet than any other strategy.

obviously the variance will be higher but the correct way to play is to maximize the expected value.

So what is the EV of playing a pair of 2s-5s vs not playing this hand at all? I understand these hands can improve but given that when they do it's to a 2 to 1 pay off or better but more often than not this hand will lose and if you lose 6x more than the 1 unit I concede where do we end up over time?

Quote: BesTEv3R

So what is the EV of playing a pair of 2s-5s vs not playing this hand at all? I understand these hands can improve but given that when they do it's to a 2 to 1 pay off or better but more often than not this hand will lose and if you lose 6x more than the 1 unit I concede where do we end up over time?

From https://wizardofodds.com/games/mississippi-stud/ :



The expected value of folding is -1. So you can see it is a huge difference.

I am assuming that 2.17 is referring to number of units.

Quote: BesTEv3R

I am assuming that 2.17 is referring to number of units.

Number of antes that you are expected to win. Folding preflop is always -1 ante. One of things you are underestimating is the occasional full house or quads you'll receive from this pocket pair. In both of these cases you'll be able to 3X one more street at the minimum.

Also note that when it DOES improve, the minimum hand it makes is 2 pair (so it always pays at least 2:1)

It's true that it improves relatively rarely, but the gains when it does improve far offset the losses when it doesn't. Betting 1x instead of 3x is a significant mistake. Folding instead of betting 3x is a massive mistake.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Also note that when it DOES improve, the minimum hand it makes is 2 pair (so it always pays at least 2:1)

It's true that it improves relatively rarely, but the gains when it does improve far offset the losses when it doesn't. Betting 1x instead of 3x is a significant mistake. Folding instead of betting 3x is a massive mistake.

I wouldn't call it rare. Yes, hitting trips is pretty tough. But ask yourself this - how rare is it to get a pair in 3-Card poker? That's your odds for getting a 2-to-1 return on your small pocket pair.

People (dealer and other players) will give you crap over this all the time. See through that part and play the numbers - in the end you're making a better decision.

And I have TWICE seen a small pocket pair turn into quads at a table, with one of those being a two turned on third street. The other was fours on 4th and 5th Street). At a $5 table, that's a $400 mistake.

Thankfully my Quads were Queens, and I started with a pair.

Quote: deanandmaria

I wouldn't call it rare. Yes, hitting trips is pretty tough. But ask yourself this - how rare is it to get a pair in 3-Card poker? That's your odds for getting a 2-to-1 return on your small pocket pair.

People (dealer and other players) will give you crap over this all the time. See through that part and play the numbers - in the end you're making a better decision.

And I have TWICE seen a small pocket pair turn into quads at a table, with one of those being a two turned on third street. The other was fours on 4th and 5th Street). At a $5 table, that's a $400 mistake.

Thankfully my Quads were Queens, and I started with a pair.

When I say it's "relatively rare", I mean that it misses more often than it hits. But, you are getting odds.

If you're not comfortable with that, this is not the game for you. The hit rate is really low, but when you win you can win big. And the big wins are not that rare either... but to make up for that the hit rate has to be REALLY low, so that they can keep the lights on and all that.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

If you're not comfortable with that, this is not the game for you. The hit rate is really low, but when you win you can win big. And the big wins are not that rare either... but to make up for that the hit rate has to be REALLY low, so that they can keep the lights on and all that.

This is why I'm surprised the game is successful. It's been my experience that games with low hit rates are not popular among most players, especially recreational players, because nobody likes losing several hands in a row like that. They become disinterested and play something else.

I find that a lot of players get turned off the game if they don't make a big hand in their first session. Once they start with a big or middle pair and turn it into trips, though, they are hooked. Dragging 30 bets will do that.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I find that a lot of players get turned off the game if they don't make a big hand in their first session. Once they start with a big or middle pair and turn it into trips, though, they are hooked. Dragging 30 bets will do that.

Certainly my exact experience first time out. Haven't given up on it yet, but 120 hands without better than 2 pair, and no pat hands (and no pocket pairs at all, though that should happen ~1 in 20 hands). My variance was out to lunch.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Certainly my exact experience first time out. Haven't given up on it yet, but 120 hands without better than 2 pair, and no pat hands (and no pocket pairs at all, though that should happen ~1 in 20 hands). My variance was out to lunch.

1 in 17, actually.

The probability of going your first 120 hands without a pocket pair to start is less than 0.0007. ie, 0.07%. Worse than 1 in 1443.

So, yeah, that's pretty unlucky.

The thing about MS Stud is, it's not only what hands you make, but when you make them. Even with 2 pair, there is a big difference between starting with A2 and getting a board of K2A (you win 8 bets) and starting with AA and getting a board of K22 (you win 20 bets). Assuming correct play with no "extra information", of course.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

1 in 17, actually.

The probability of going your first 120 hands without a pocket pair to start is less than 0.0007. ie, 0.07%. Worse than 1 in 1443.

So, yeah, that's pretty unlucky.

The thing about MS Stud is, it's not only what hands you make, but when you make them. Even with 2 pair, there is a big difference between starting with A2 and getting a board of K2A (you win 8 bets) and starting with AA and getting a board of K22 (you win 20 bets). Assuming correct play with no "extra information", of course.

Great point.

Amazing story . . . I usually buy in for $300 at this game hoping to get several hours of play, and that usually is what I get, often winning or losing a hundred or so.

Two weeks ago at Margaritaville, a woman sat down for the first time and threw two $20 bills on the table. She was dealt 2-3. (Maybe I can get a straight she said) The first card was a Q, then an 6, then on 5th, we hit another Q to double her money.

What came next was the most amazing streak of gambling I had ever seen at any table. If she was dealt a high card, she paired it. Almost on 3rd street every time. If she was dealt a pocket pair, she would hit the trips. Once she even hit a boat. After about an hour she had over $1300 in front of her. Then she was dealt K-4, and the dealer flipped over trip 4s. I couldn't complain - I left the table after two hours with the same $300 I dropped. She had over $2800 in front of her and still had no clue how it happened or how lucky she was. (She played every hand no matter what.) I guess on a run like that, it would almost feel like cheating yourself throwing away cards you shouldn't play.

I do agree that the game is surprisingly successful given its mechanics. It seems the people that can analyze the pay tables and figure they have to give the game some time accept its outcomes win or loss. The person with a $20 bill that wants to try a table game? Not so much.

Still not a fan on the add-on bets. The 3-Card bet often puts you into a position to cheer against one of your other bets (Yes, I want the straight for the 6-to-1 payout), but I spent the last two cards rooting for a Queen to pair the one I have! Now that Caesar's is offering the six-card Millionaire Maker bet on top of it, it's even worse, and it's soured the flow of the game, IMO.

say what you will about other table games, Miss Stud is so miserable, you can't even have fun playing simulations.
I found that the Wiz's UTH simulator will at least give me some wins (whereas for some reason, the dealer keeps getting straights in real life) while MissStud simulations equal real life as your stack dwindles.
at least with other games, you're playing against the house, they can have a worse hand or bust. Instead, MisStud can be brutal where your paltry 5 cards add up to nothing for a long time.
So, congrats to that lady in Margartiaville bc that's amazing.

that's exactly the kind of beginner's luck I was hoping for..and I was playing at Margaritaville, too! Guess she got both mine and hers with those cards.

Quote: deanandmaria

Still not a fan on the add-on bets. The 3-Card bet often puts you into a position to cheer against one of your other bets (Yes, I want the straight for the 6-to-1 payout), but I spent the last two cards rooting for a Queen to pair the one I have! Now that Caesar's is offering the six-card Millionaire Maker bet on top of it, it's even worse, and it's soured the flow of the game, IMO.

So I've never played Mississippi Stud before, but how do you incorporate the six-card Millionaire Maker into MS if there are only five cards involved in the game? I assume this is along the same lines as the Three Card Poker super-diamond royal?

Quote: Deucekies

So I've never played Mississippi Stud before, but how do you incorporate the six-card Millionaire Maker into MS if there are only five cards involved in the game? I assume this is along the same lines as the Three Card Poker super-diamond royal?

You use 5 cards? Keep the same top payout and maybe change the lower paytable to reflect 5 card odds...or even keep the table with worse odds on only 5 cards than 6, but figure people who will bet it will do it whether there are 5 or 6 cards working.

Quote: Deucekies

So I've never played Mississippi Stud before, but how do you incorporate the six-card Millionaire Maker into MS if there are only five cards involved in the game? I assume this is along the same lines as the Three Card Poker super-diamond royal?

Extra community card i'd assume, but I haven't seen it in person.

Quote: deanandmaria

Still not a fan on the add-on bets. The 3-Card bet often puts you into a position to cheer against one of your other bets (Yes, I want the straight for the 6-to-1 payout), but I spent the last two cards rooting for a Queen to pair the one I have! Now that Caesar's is offering the six-card Millionaire Maker bet on top of it, it's even worse, and it's soured the flow of the game, IMO.

And CET doesn't care about souring the flow of the game if they can get idiots to bet their 18% edge bet.

Quote: Deucekies

So I've never played Mississippi Stud before, but how do you incorporate the six-card Millionaire Maker into MS if there are only five cards involved in the game? I assume this is along the same lines as the Three Card Poker super-diamond royal?

It;s exactly the same. They've moved the game to a shuffle machine. The first four cards are taken off the deck and set aside. Then the game is played out, and then the four cards are revealed and compared to the pockets on the table playing the six card bet. They also do it this way on UTH and Texas Hold'Em Bonus. Let it Ride is a 3 card stack off the top of the deck. (The UTH at Bally's hadn't been switched yet because they needed to wait until the progressive hit first.)

Oh . . . and if you are so inclined to play the six-card bet, like 3CP, you MUST play the other prop bet. So even on MS, you must play the 3 Card bonus bet in order to bet the six card, even though they have nothing to do with one another.

On Crazy 4 it's even worse - they take ONE card off the top of the deck and then play the game. Most of the time there isn't even any suspense for the player - no single card will help. And worse, since there's so much information available, even if you have a pair, you may see 1 or both of your outs sitting in other people or the dealer's hand. This game REALLY suffers from this bet, IMO.


EDIT - CET has changed all of the above games at every property I visited in mid January. All new felts, signs, the whole works.

Back to the OP... I also noted it looked strange to 3x the 22 thru 55. I am much more comfortable with a 1x. Doing some "ball park" math it looks that by doing this, the Element of Risk increases from 1.37% to 1.40%, and the House Advantage increases by a full 0.1%.

I would not fold any pair, for the reasons mentioned/shown above. 1x on the below board pairs is at least viable, but not correct strategy.