Pass/Don't Pass odds question

While in class I have been talking pass/don't pass with my fellow students. Here is a question. Two actually.

1. In the end, are the odds on pass/don't pass the same? Without starting a long thread (again) on it, does the house have the same 1.41% house edge on both?

2. If they are both the same, is there an advantage in playing the Pass since you have those eight chances to win (six sevens and 2 elevens) FIRST then the seven is against you vs the Don't having to survive that. Is it similar to BJ where even with the same chances by WHEN you act helps you?

There is possibly some uncertainty in the terms you are using. By "are the odds on pass/don't pass the same?", do you mean (1) "is the probability of winning a pass bet the same as the probability of winning a don't pass bet?", or (2) "are odds wagers that are added onto a pass bet equivalent to odds wagers that are added onto a don't pass bet?"

If you meant (1) as I think you did, the answer has been discussed extensively. No, the probability of winning a don't pass bet is oh so very slightly better than winning a pass bet. If you meant (2), they are both "free" odds bets, with no house advantage on either, but for the don't pass bet you have to place more of your money at risk to have the same level of action on the odds bet.

I mean

1. If you just flat-bet pass forever would you do better than if you flat-bet don't pass forever.

I'm not talking about the free-odds at all, they are both no house edge bets.

youd do slightly better betting the dont passbet.

for every $100 you wager on the passline, you will theoretically lose 5cents less if you had bet the dont pass instead.

That $00.05 reduction in loss per $100.00 wagered is what I meant by "oh so very slightly better." If there were not calculations to come up with the value of this advantage and I had only tracked my experience with every pass/don't pass wager I have ever made and what would have happened if I had bet the other way, I'm not sure I would be confident which wager is better.

This may be bad statistics (I'm no math major), but I think that in order to have the difference in expected values for pass and don't pass to exceed one standard deviation, you would have to have examined the results of something like 10,000 come out rolls. I think this means that there is something like a 34% chance that consistently betting "pass" would work out better than "don't pass" for 10,000 come out rolls. But, since 34% is less than 50%, don't pass is still the slightly better option in the very long term. One of you mathematicians/statisticians please correct my figures.

Edit: Come to think of it, I think this is a stat problem for a chi squared test, and I'm certainly not up to doing that. Definitely have to call on the math guru/geeks.

it just seems to me that people develop a preference that has nothing to do with one bet paying better than another. Currently, I am favoring 'the don't' due to the way streaks tend to play out taking the free odds.

Quote: AZDuffman

1. In the end, are the odds on pass/don't pass the same? Without starting a long thread (again) on it, does the house have the same 1.41% house edge on both?

No. According to https://wizardofodds.com/craps the house edge on the Don't is only 1.36%.

The house edge on the Don't is only 1.3634% if you ignore ties on the pass roll.
If you don't ignore ties the house edge on the Don't is 1.3634% * 36/35 = 1.403%. It is simply a matter of preference if you are counting the HA per roll, or per roll resolved. You will see it both ways,although there is a preference for 1.3634%.

However you choose to calculate it, the difference is too small to be detectable. Some people like the Don't because when they put odds on the point they are more likely to win then lose. It's a matter of preference.

The other players are sometimes creeped out if you play the darkside, and put your bet on the Don't when you are throwing the dice. In deference to the other players I never do this bet.

The two house advantages expressed as fractions are 7/495 and 3/220 where 7/495 + 3/220 = 1/36. Hypothetically if you make both bets then you will lose one unit once every 36 pass rolls when a 12 is rolled.

Quote: pacomartin

The house edge on the Don't is only 1.3634% if you ignore ties on the pass roll.
If you don't ignore ties the house edge on the Don't is 1.3634% * 36/35 = 1.403%. It is simply a matter of preference if you are counting the HA per roll, or per roll resolved. You will see it both ways,although there is a preference for 1.3634%.

However you choose to calculate it, the difference is too small to be detectable. Some people like the Don't because when they put odds on the point they are more likely to win then lose. It's a matter of preference.

This is a good example of why it is clearer to talk about ev than HA. In pass/come betting, the expected loss is 28 units out of 1980 units bet; for the don't pass, it is 27 units out of 1980. The difference comes in when you decide the denominator: 28 / 1980 = .0141414..... 27/1980 = .013636... 27/1925 = .0140259...

55 times out of 1980 we expect the bar 12 (or 2). If you consider that money as "risked", use 1980; if not, use 1925, but the ev is the same, and that's what's most important. So, the difference between pass/come and don't pass/don't come is one unit for every 1980 bet.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

If you consider that money as "risked",

Its been risked. The fact that the bettor now as the right to pick up the Pushed Bet and walk away with it doesn't mean that the average bettor will even consider doing it. I always leave a pushed bet up even though I know I don't have to.

Either way it still works out to a Right Bettor and a Wrong Bettor facing pretty much the same edge.

Quote: FleaStiff

I always leave a pushed bet up even though I know I don't have to.

Pushed bets? Hell, what about winning bets?

I can only think of TWO winning bets that are paid "and down": Any dealer bet, and the Fire Bet.

Are there others that I'm not thinking of?



Just a wise-ass comment here: If you're ignoring ties, you should compound the house advantage in ALL calculations when you let your winning bet stay up. And compound it further for pressing the bet. But I know you're not going to do that, so the edge on a Don't Pass is 1.36%.

Quote: pacomartin

The house edge on the Don't is only 1.3634% if you ignore ties on the pass roll.

You got that backwards. It's 1.40% if you ignore the ties.

Quote: https://wizardofodds.com/craps

Source: https://wizardofodds.com/craps
There is some disagreement about the house edge on the don't pass. The following return table shows all the possible outcomes. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 1.36%. Some gambling books state the house edge is 1.40%. This is the expected loss per bet resolved. In other words it ignores ties. Today, most gambling writers, including myself, count ties, and thus would go with 1.36% as the house edge.

I think the odds have been covered. If it's only about reducing the house edge, you play the don't.

I play the pass because - to me - it's more fun. In general, most people - whether they know the game, odds, etc. or not - will play the pass. When a game gets hot, people are generally playing the pass side and getting excited. When you play the don't, you are generally going against the rest of the table. WHen they are excited, you are losing and when you are winning, they are bummed.