Value Betting

Can we, as table game players, find better-than-average values for any of our bets?

I mean, let's think about it for a moment, isn't that what the card-counters do? They count down the decks in order to gain an advantage regarding the remaining card values, and either raise or lower their bets accordingly.

That's but one example; there are others.

What might a Baccarat player do in order to obtain a better value out of their plays?

I mean....we begin in the hole, do we not? Sure we do; based strictly upon the house's edge, we're down a bit over 1% before we ever place a dollar onto the felt. So we begin with the worst of it, right off the bat.

Now, obviously, if one were to fail in adjusting their play (read: bet selections and dollar adjustments), the HE alone would serve as their eventual ruination. (Wow, I can virtually see all your nodding heads even from my side of the computer with that "HE would serve as your eventual ruination" statement.)

But, with that all said, I am of the opinion that there are, in fact, "value bets" to be had at this game, and at values rated as no less, if not more, than any card-counter might enjoy.

Is it possible to rate certain bets as "better" bets....yes, most certainly. Either by bet placement, or bet size, or both; either way one might find their better value.

Stay tuned....to be continued as time permits.....

Don't do it people. I may be a new member, but I have been a long time reader. Do not feed him... he hungers...

Quote: VCUSkyhawk

Don't do it people. I may be a new member, but I have been a long time reader. Do not feed him... he hungers...

Hello, VCUSkyhawk, welcome to the forum. Your second day, eh? Well, here's to many, many more....

I need for no one to "feed" me anything...it is simply a matter of very restricted computer availability. I will continue with this thread as I'm able to.

My teacher gr8player must have forgotten this post:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/15062-the-chicken-of-the-egg/7/#post268964

Quote:

I'm going to ask that you desist with creating additional threads devoted to substantially the same subject matter for the time being until such time that you plan to divulge your entire system, with specificity, so that it can be adequately challenged, from a mathematical standpoint, and in a meaningful way. There are a number of threads you've created concerning this subject matter, and you are welcome to continue to post in any of those.

Teacher, you've already been banned once, so please don't allow yourself to get banned again. It would make your humble students, such as myself, become very, very depressed!

If you were betting horses, would you take 4/5 on a horse that you had figured to go off at 2/1 or better? Of course, you would not. At 2 to 1, you were getting value for money, whereas at 4/5 there was simply no value to be had. So you continue "shopping for a good value" into the next race, or the next, or the next.

Same is true for Baccarat. Each bet has an inherent probability that pays us off at a bit less than even money. So, again, on the face of it, we're on the short end of the stick.

But I prefer to play Baccarat as I would the horses. Each bet is a separate and distinct race, and each race is an opportunity to shop for a value bet. This point is an important one, aside even from the "value bet" advantage, because it also serves to slow the game down for you, rather than getting caught up in the continuum of it all.

So what do we search for when we're seeking out "value bets"? Ohhh...that's the million-dollar question.....let's get to some answers:

1.) Bet Selection

One's bet selections must perform at a better than 50% strike rate. Let me put it thusly: If you're playing this game and your strike rates are not ABOVE 50%, you are doomed to lose. Cease playing, save your money. You cannot win if you cannot develop a bet selection method that produces a better-than 50% strike rate.

Now, understand....this strike rate is for the long term. Yes, you might hit at 35% for one shoe...two, at most...but that same laggard selection had better be proven to bounce back up above 50%. Which leads me to:

2.) Variance

OK. You've got your better-than 50% bet selection. Now, go back and track its average win streaks and loss streaks, and its average upswings and drawdowns. Then you can gauge its variance. How high is high, and how low is low. You must know these statistics in order to move on to the most important:

3.) Money Management

May I come right out and say it: You must be able to put more money down on your winners than you do on your losers. Sounds trite, but it's the gospel. Any Bac player worth their salt knows it. Shoot....any card-counter worth their salt knows it. So it must be accomplished. But how?:

By playing those same bet selections, consistently; and then tracking their variances; and then adjusting your bet sizes according to their most current statistics.

And....viola....you're left with: Value Betting.

When you can learn to play in effectively in this manner, you are getting the better of it over the casino, in the long run. You are getting more value out of your plays than the casino is out of their house edge.

Does it do anything to make your very next bet a winner? Nope. Still a turn-of-a-card game. On any singular bet...anything can happen.

But I don't play singular bets, and I don't gauge my play accordingly. I play a long term game.

1.) When my preferred plays are not appearing, I am not betting, so I'm risking nothing.

2.) When my preferred plays appear, I bet for them. Consistently. Every time. They're strong enough to simply flat-bet. But:

3.) When my variance(s) dip, I'll adjust my bets upward. When they upswing, I'll adjust back down.

4.) Lastly, my stats "travel". I take them shoe-to-shoe and session-to-session and week-to-week. Where I go, they go. Where I play, they play.

We make a good team, because we, collectively, produce "value bets".

Quote: Beethoven9th

Teacher, you've already been banned once, so please don't allow yourself to get banned again. It would make your humble students, such as myself, become very, very depressed!

I cannot post, or, for that matter, not post, inside of this forum with the thought of whether or not the admin might deem it grounds for dismissal.

They will act as they will, I'm quite certain, regardless of what I might think of it.

Why did you start another thread, this mindless
drivel belongs in one of your umpteen mindless
drivel threads. You just don't get it, do you.

Quote: gr8player

If you were betting horses, would you take 4/5 on a horse that you had figured to go off at 2/1 or better? Of course, you would not. At 2 to 1, you were getting value for money, whereas at 4/5 there was simply no value to be had. So you continue "shopping for a good value" into the next race, or the next, or the next.

In horse racing.....one persons value is another horse players 'throw out"......no such thing as value in horse racing.

I am banning Gr8Player pursuant to a Liberal construance of Rule 5, he also specifically and pointedly ignored my clear request...so technically, it's a nuclear option, though temporary.

One week ban, and this thread is Locked.