New Borgata linked progressive analysis?

Borgata has a new linked progressive for the following games: 3 Card Poker / 4 Card Poker / Texas Holdem Bonus / Caribbean Stud Poker / Let It Ride

The payouts are based on a 5 card stud hand. You can bet between 1-5 dollars for the progressive. Here is the paytable for each dollar bet:

Royal Flush (Hearts) 20%
Royal Flush (Other) 5%
Straight Flush 10000
4 of a Kind 500
Full House 100
Flush 50
Straight 25

The current jackpot is $950,000. Can someone please provide the analysis for each of the bet amounts (1-5)?

Thanks

I was there last Sunday, it was just 3 Card and 4 Card. They were talking of expanding it to Let It Ride and 5 Card Hi-Lo, but leaving Caribbean alone because it has its own jackpot.

It is a bad bet, and not because of the odds, which we all know all big jackpot offerings are. It is a bad bet because it is confusing in its implementation and it slows the games down. And dealers don't like it because it changes the rhythm of the game. A good dealer is fast, pleasant, and accurate, and the new bet screws with that equation.

In order to play you have to first fund a bank to bet from, then withdraw your bets from the bank. The game has to pause to allow players to make the decision on whether to bet and how much, and at the end it has to pause again to resolve the bet. When we were there about a month ago, there were two player arguments over the timing and amount of the initial bet, one where a player claimed he did not have enough time to make the bet, and the other when the player thought he had bet more than he had, and hit one of the smaller payouts.

In any case, by early appearances it seems to be a failure, even among us carnival games players. We've visited Borgata twice since it was installed: the first time it appeared that about 10-15% of players were making the bet, and the last time, a week ago, I didn't see anyone making it. I'm sure people are making it, but it is far, far away from the near 100% acceptance that the button bet has at Let It Ride and that the 6 Card bet on 3CP has at CET. And that is not taking into account that Borgata changed the 3CP Pairs Plus pay table at the same time, removing the 100-1 mini-royal, which players at teh table were griping about when the subject of the new bat came up as new players sat and asked about it.

Pissed off players, unhappy dealers, slower game play, worse odds... looks like a lose-lose to me. Borgata should cut and run, but they've probably invested too much into it to do that this soon.

Is there any penalty for only betting $1.00, with respect to the Progressive?

Also, do you know the starting amount of the jackpot?

Base Pays:

(1/255.8 * 25) + (1/508.80 * 50) + (1/694.17 * 100) + (1/4,165 * 500) + (1/72,193.33 * 10000) = 0.6039488640362705

Okay, that's fixed. The value of the jackpot, in EV, is constant, because it is perfectly graduated.

The probability of the Hearts Royal is 649,740 * 4 =1/2598960

The probability of any other Royal is thus: 3/2598960

The current jackpot is $950,000, which contributes, per dollar bet:

(1/2598960 * (950000 *.2)) + (3/2598960 * (950000 *.05)) = 0.12793578970049557

The current Expected Value, per dollar bet is: 0.12793578970049557 + 0.6039488640362705 = 0.731884653736766

The House Edge currently stands at about 26.812%

Hell is this? Powerball?

The breakeven point on a $1.00 bet is:

0.6039488640362705 + (1/2598960 * (x *.2)) + (3/2598960 * (x *.05)) = 1

x=680331225280/231333

x=2940917.31521227

Break even point is $2,940,917.32, for any bet, because it is perfectly graduated.

PROOF:

.6039488640362705 + (1/2598960 * (2940917.32 * .2)) + (3/2598960 * (2940917.32 * .05) = 1.00000000064476

The size of your bet $1-$5 is irrelevant, as it does not change your expectation. Simply replace the current amount of the progressive in the formula above, and multiply the fixed EV (the thing in the beginning outside of the parentheses) by the number of dollars bet. After that, adjust the Progressive Meter in the formula, and then:

For $1 bet: Multiply the Progressive Jackpot by .2 and .05, respectively.

For $2 bet: Multiply the Progressive Jackpot by .4 and .10, respectively.

For $3 bet: Multiply the Progressive Jackpot by .6 and .15, respectively.

For $4 bet: Multiply the Progressive Jackpot by .8 and .2, respectively.

For $5 bet: Multiply the Progressive Jackpot by 1 and .25, respectively.

Again, it makes no difference in EV how much you bet, however, even if you wanted to play this long-shot at 100%+EV, I'd still bet the minimum $1.00 just because of the extreme unlikelihood of it hitting.